中国与东盟产业合作的效益测算及评价研究

发布时间：2019-06-12 13:10

【摘要】：文章通过建立国际投入产出模型分析了中国与东盟产业合作对双方GDP的影响及其途径,以7个产业合作部门为研究对象,利用2011年ADB-MRIO表的数据分别测算了在两种极端情形下,中国与东盟产业合作对各个国家GDP的拉动效应,并对总的影响效果做了综合评价。文章的研究发现:(1)中国与东盟产业合作对于双方而言都是有利的,但对于东盟国家GDP的拉动效应更加明显,从长期来看,对东盟国家经济增长也更为有利;(2)中国与印尼、菲律宾的产业合作能够最大程度地拉动双方GDP增长,而中国与越南产业合作对于双方GDP的拉动效应最弱;(3)中国与东盟国家产业合作对GDP拉动效应最明显的部门是其他非金属矿物制品业,其次是机械设备制造业和皮革与制鞋业,而纺织业的产业合作对GDP的影响最小。
[Abstract]:This paper analyzes the influence of industrial cooperation between China and ASEAN on GDP and its ways by establishing international input-output model. Taking seven industrial cooperation departments as the research object, the pulling effect of industrial cooperation between China and ASEAN on GDP of each country in two extreme cases is calculated by using the data of ADB-MRIO table in 2011, and the overall influence effect is comprehensively evaluated. It is found that: (1) the industrial cooperation between China and ASEAN is beneficial to both sides, but the pulling effect is more obvious for ASEAN countries, and more beneficial to the economic growth of ASEAN countries in the long run. (2) the industrial cooperation between China and Indonesia and the Philippines can stimulate the GDP growth of both sides to the greatest extent, while the pulling effect of industrial cooperation between China and Vietnam on both sides is the weakest. (3) the most obvious pulling effect of industrial cooperation between China and ASEAN countries on GDP is other non-metallic mineral products industry, followed by mechanical equipment manufacturing industry and leather and shoe industry, while the industrial cooperation of textile industry has the least impact on GDP.
【作者单位】：中国人民大学经济学院;国家发改委国土开发与地区经济研究所;重庆大学公共管理学院管理学院;
【分类号】：F125.4

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