电子商务信用风险形成的系统动力机制研究

发布时间：2018-03-17 03:28

本文选题：电子商务　切入点：信用风险　出处：《河南工业大学》2010年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】： 伴随着电子商务的快速发展,在线交易中的信用危机也日益凸显。在线交易由于信息的不对称和非人格化特性使得交易双方信任更难建立,信用问题已经成为阻碍电子商务发展的瓶颈之一。信用问题产生的本质是由于在线交易主体对信用风险的预期,要做到有效防范电子商务信用风险,就必须理解其科学内涵,分析其影响因素,探究其形成机制。为此,本文引入系统动力学的理论,运用系统仿真的方法,对电子商务信用风险系统进行了系统思考。首先,本文界定了电子商务信用风险的概念,提出了表征电子商务信用风险的基本范畴:感知信用风险率,感知信用风险率即在线交易者感知交易过程中被欺骗的可能性(概率),这一范畴的引入成为后续系统模型构建的必要条件。而后,本文结合系统动力学的原理,分析了电子商务信用风险的系统结构,界定了系统边界。初步将影响感知信用风险的众多因素整合为技术因素、文化因素、交易因素、市场因素、个人因素和管理因素六大类,这六大类因素也就构成了电子商务信用风险系统的六个子系统。在此基础上,阐释了系统动力学对电子商务信用风险系统研究的适用性。系统结构的分析为下部分模型的构建奠定了理论基础。进一步,本文运用系统思考的方法,分析了电子商务信用风险及其影响因素之间的因果反馈关系,建立了各变量之间的函数关系式,将因果关系图其转换为可进行系统仿真的系统动力学流图,构建了电子商务信用风险的系统动力学模型。最后,本文运用专业的系统动力学软件Vensim对构建好的模型进行了仿真。以交易次数为模拟单位,具体模拟了100次在线交易过程中感知信用风险率的变化趋势。并通过改变模型的个人因素和交易因素的相关参数,测试不同参数对系统输出的影响。研究结果表明,电子商务信用风险及其影响因素组成的系统具有显著的积累效应,众多影响因素中,系统输出对于个人的受骗经历变动最为敏感,其次为交易额和个人防范能力,而于信用服务收费率(OTS价格)变动最不敏感。
[Abstract]:With the rapid development of electronic commerce, the credit crisis in online trading is becoming increasingly prominent. Due to the asymmetric and depersonalization of information, it is more difficult to establish trust between the two sides of the transaction. Credit problem has become one of the bottlenecks that hinder the development of electronic commerce. The essence of credit problem is the expectation of credit risk from online trading subject. In order to prevent the credit risk of electronic commerce effectively, we must understand its scientific connotation. This paper introduces the theory of system dynamics and makes use of the method of system simulation to systematically think about the credit risk system of electronic commerce. First of all, this paper defines the concept of credit risk in electronic commerce, and puts forward the basic category to represent the credit risk of electronic commerce: perceived credit risk rate, The introduction of the category of perceived credit risk rate, that is, online traders' perception of the possibility of being deceived in the course of trading, has become a necessary condition for the construction of subsequent system models. Then, based on the principle of system dynamics, this paper analyzes the system structure of credit risk in electronic commerce, defines the system boundary, and initially integrates many factors that affect perceived credit risk into technical factor, cultural factor, transaction factor, etc. There are six categories of market factors, personal factors and management factors, which constitute six subsystems of the credit risk system of electronic commerce. The applicability of system dynamics to the study of electronic commerce credit risk system is explained. The analysis of system structure lays a theoretical foundation for the construction of the next part of the model. Furthermore, by using the method of systematic thinking, this paper analyzes the causal feedback relationship between the credit risk and its influencing factors in electronic commerce, and establishes the functional relationship between the variables. The causality diagram is transformed into the system dynamics flow graph which can be simulated, and the system dynamics model of the credit risk of electronic commerce is constructed. Finally, this paper uses the professional system dynamics software Vensim to simulate the established model. The change trend of perceived credit risk rate in 100 online transactions is simulated and the influence of different parameters on the system output is tested by changing the individual factors of the model and the relevant parameters of the transaction factors. The results show that the system composed of credit risk and its influencing factors has significant accumulative effect. Among the many influencing factors, the system output is most sensitive to the change of the individual's experience of being cheated. The second is turnover and personal precautionary ability, while the OTS price is the most insensitive to the rate of charge for credit services.
【学位授予单位】：河南工业大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2010
【分类号】：F224;F713.36

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