电子商务发展对中国向“一带一路”沿线国家出口影响的动态研究

发布时间：2018-05-23 07:59

本文选题：电子商务 + 出口　；参考：《江西财经大学》2016年硕士论文

【摘要】：近几年来,"互联网+"的概念已经深入人心,比如电子商务、互联网金融(ITFIN)、在线旅游、在线影视、在线房产等等都耳熟能详。"互联网+"催生出无数新兴行业,促使经济形态不断地发生演变,从而为实体经济倾注活力,并且为改革、创新和发展提供了广阔的网络平台,这些都是互联网思维积极实践的成果。2015年6月10日的国务院常务会议上,李克强总理指出:促进跨境电子商务健康快速发展,用"互联网+外贸"实现优进优出,有利于扩大消费、推动开放型经济发展升级、打造新的经济增长点。能否抓住这个机遇,关键问题在于如何有效地运用电子商务发展来推动我国对外贸易的可持续发展。随着"一带一路"国家战略的实施,丝绸之路经济带和海上丝绸之路日渐成型,在全球出口低迷的情况下,"网上丝绸之路"——跨境电子商务的发展是我国传统外贸通过"互联网+外贸"实现转型升级的必然选择。因此,为了顺应时代潮流,响应国家顶层战略,本文基于"一带一路"沿线国家的样本,研究电子商务发展对中国出口贸易的动态影响。在对现有相关文献进行梳理的基础上,本文首先构建了测度电子商务发展水平的指标体系,并且利用熵权法,使用相关数据测算出了 1999-2014年中国电子商务发展指数,然后基于UNcomtrade数据库6位HS产品编码的双边贸易数据,测算出了 1999-2014年中国向"一带一路"沿线60个国家出口的二元边际。从交易成本理论、贸易中介理论、贸易成本理论、贸易风险理论四个角度分析了电子商务发展对出口贸易的影响。根据电子商务发展对出口贸易影响的模型分析,构建计量模型,然后运用向量自回归模型(PVAR模型)进行实证研究。在对数据进行平稳性检验的基础上,确定PVAR模型的最优滞后阶数,基于广义矩估计(GMM估计)、脉冲响应函数、方差分解,探究电子商务发展对中国出口,尤其是二元边际的动态影响轨迹。通过理论与实证分析,得出几点结论:(1)电子商务发展对出口额一直表现为正向作用,对出口增长的动态影响轨迹趋势一致,均是先正后负,再正,然后逐渐收敛,并且对集约边际变动的贡献度大于对扩展边际的变动。(2)出口市场规模促进了二元边际的增长,抑制了出口额的增长,并且是对出口额变动贡献度最高的因素,对扩展边际变动的贡献度大于对集约边际的变动。(3)生产率水平制约出口额的增长,是所有因素中贡献率最小的,对二元边际的消极影响也很大,但从第二期开始对扩展边际产生微小的正向影响,并且对扩展边际变动的贡献度大于对集约边际的变动。(4)出口目的国互联网用户数量对出口额产生负向影响,对二元边际主要表现为促进作用,但在第二期会抑制扩展边际的增长,并且对集约边际变动的贡献度是所有因素中最大的。根据研究结论,本文提出了几点相应的政策建议:(1)充分发挥电子商务发展对二元边际的积极作用,并规避各种风险;(2)充分挖掘出口市场消费潜力,适当增加出口产品异质性;(3)降低出口贸易成本,尤其是固定成本;(4)促进科技进步,提高生产率水平。
[Abstract]:In recent years, the concept of "Internet plus" has been popular, such as e-commerce, Internet Banking (ITFIN), online travel, online video, online real estate are for having heard it many times and so on. "Internet plus" spawned numerous emerging industries, promote economic pattern changed, so as to pour vitality of the real economy, and reform innovation, and The exhibition provides a broad platform, these are the executive meeting of the State Council Internet thinking actively practice the achievements of.2015 in June 10th, Premier Li Keqiang pointed out: to promote the rapid development of cross-border e-commerce, "Internet plus foreign trade to achieve better into the excellent, is conducive to the expansion of consumption, promote the upgrading of the open economy, create new The economic growth point. Can seize this opportunity, the key question is how to effectively use the electronic commerce development to promote the sustainable development of foreign trade in China. With the implementation of the "The Belt and Road national strategy, Silk Road Economic Belt and maritime silk road gradually formed, in the global export downturn," the road online silk" - cross-border e-commerce is the development of China's traditional foreign trade through the "Internet plus foreign trade" to achieve the transformation and upgrading of the inevitable choice. Therefore, in order to adapt to the trend of the times, in response to the national top-level strategy, based on "The Belt and Road along the country's sample, research on e-commerce development dynamic effect of Chinese on existing export trade. Related article On the basis of combing, this paper first constructs an index system to measure the development level of e-commerce, and uses the entropy weight method to calculate the 1999-2014 year China e-commerce development index by using the relevant data. Then, based on the dual trade data encoded by the 6 bit HS product of the UNcomtrade database, it calculates the China to "1999-2014 years". The Belt and Road "along the 60 countries export two yuan. The marginal transaction cost theory, intermediary trade theory, trade cost theory, four aspects of trade risk theory to analyze the impact of Electronic Commerce on the export trade. According to the analysis model of the influence of e-commerce development on export trade, establishing the econometric model, and then use the vector from the back On the basis of the stability test of the data, the optimal lag order of the PVAR model is determined, based on the generalized moment estimation (GMM estimation), the impulse response function and the variance decomposition, on the basis of the stability test of the data, to explore the dynamic influence path of the development of electronic commerce to China's export, especially the two yuan margin. Through theoretical and empirical analysis, the theoretical and empirical analysis is carried out. The conclusions are as follows: (1) the development of e-commerce has been positive to the export volume, and the trend of the dynamic impact on the export growth is consistent, both positive and negative, then positive, and then gradually converging, and the contribution to the intensive marginal change is greater than that of the extension marginal. (2) the scale of the export market has promoted the growth of the margin of two yuan. The increase in export volume is inhibited and the highest contribution to the export turnover is the factor of contribution to the marginal change. (3) the productivity level restricts the growth of the export volume, which is the smallest contribution rate in all factors and the negative effect on the two yuan margin, but from the second period to the expansion side There is a small positive impact on the margin, and the contribution to the marginal change is greater than that of the intensive marginal change. (4) the number of Internet users in the export destination country has a negative impact on the export volume, which is the main promoting effect on the marginal margin of the two yuan, but in the second period it will inhibit the growth of the extended marginal and contribute to the intensive marginal change. It is the biggest of all factors. According to the conclusion of the study, this paper puts forward some corresponding policy suggestions: (1) give full play to the positive role of e-commerce development to the two yuan margin and avoid various risks; (2) fully excavate the export market consumption potential, appropriately increase the heterogeneity of export products; (3) reduce export trade costs, especially fixed costs. (4) promote the progress of science and technology and improve the level of productivity.
【学位授予单位】：江西财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2016
【分类号】：F752.62;F724.6

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