基于系统动力学的电子商务促进贵州工业化发展研究

发布时间：2018-06-22 15:37

本文选题：电子商务 + 工业化　；参考：《贵州师范大学》2015年硕士论文

【摘要】：随着电子商务技术快速发展与互联网技术的广泛应用,以虚拟经济为依托的电子商务正在逐步成为推动我国新型工业化的重要力量。电子商务的发展能够改变传统的工业模式,实现生产标准化、销售规模化和企业经营专业化。贵州由于自身的特点和地域的原因,工业化程度不高,电子商务发展较晚,其经济发展水平与发达地区相比还有较大差距。当务之急,立足贵州现代化建设,发展新型工业,结合新兴电子商务技术与贵州实际情况,致力于将电子商务技术运用到贵州工业化建设当中,有利于促进贵州经济实现跨越式发展,提高贵州人民的生活水平。近年来,在新兴电子商务技术的不断涌现以及我国欠发达地区大力实施工业化的背景下,贵州重点发展大数据、云计算等战略性新兴产业,建设“七朵云”示范项目,倾力打造“中国云谷”,是自然给予贵州的厚赠,也是贵州后发赶超的必然抉择。因此,研究电子商务对工业发展的影响机制对推进贵州工业化进程具有重要意义。本文以电子商务在工业发展各个方面的影响为基本依据,首先对电子商务促进工业发展的因素进行了分析,基于SWOT战略分析方法,讨论当前贵州发展电子商务需要坚持的基本要求、原则及发展战略;其次,运用系统动力学原理对电子商务在促进工业发展过程中的各个因素进行讨论,结合关键因素构建因果回路图和系统流图,分析电子商务对工业发展的影响机理,构建电子商务促进贵州工业发展的动力模型;并在因果关系图和分析的基础上,运用系统模拟软件STELLA对上述因素组合进行系统仿真,构建企业电子商务运行的系统流图。再次,基于灰色系统理论,收集了2006年以来贵州规模以上工业总产值变动数据,运用MATLAB软件对其变化趋势进行预测,研究表明在电子商务发展推动下,实际产值比预测产值要高;然后将贵州省规模以上工业总产值与电子商务交易额进行标准化处理,得到历年贵州省规模以上工业总产值与电子商务交易额的标准值,再将二者进行比较,发现二者之间增长趋势高度拟合,并用灰色关联分析法进行验证,从而得出电子商务对贵州地区工业发展的促进作用。最后,根据上述讨论,提出相关建议,加快工业信息化和电子商务体系建设步伐,全面推进电子商务在贵州工业化过程中的应用与发展。
[Abstract]:With the rapid development of e-commerce technology and the wide application of Internet technology, E-commerce based on virtual economy is gradually becoming an important force to promote new industrialization in China. The development of e-commerce can change the traditional industrial model, realize production standardization, sales scale and enterprise management specialization. Due to its own characteristics and regional reasons, Guizhou has a low degree of industrialization, the development of electronic commerce is late, and its economic development level still has a big gap compared with the developed regions. As a matter of urgency, we should base ourselves on the modernization of Guizhou, develop new industries, combine the emerging e-commerce technology with the actual situation in Guizhou, and devote ourselves to applying e-commerce technology to the industrialization construction of Guizhou. It will help promote the development of Guizhou economy by leaps and bounds and improve the living standard of Guizhou people. In recent years, under the background of the emergence of new electronic commerce technology and the implementation of industrialization in underdeveloped areas of China, Guizhou has focused on developing strategic emerging industries such as big data, cloud computing, and building "Seven Cloud" demonstration projects. To build China's Cloud Valley is a natural gift to Guizhou and an inevitable choice for Guizhou to catch up with and surpass. Therefore, it is of great significance to study the influence mechanism of e-commerce on industrial development in Guizhou. Based on the influence of E-commerce on various aspects of industrial development, this paper first analyzes the factors that E-commerce promotes industrial development, based on the SWOT strategic analysis method. The basic requirements, principles and development strategies needed to be adhered to in the development of electronic commerce in Guizhou are discussed. Secondly, the various factors of electronic commerce in the process of promoting industrial development are discussed by using the principle of system dynamics. Combining with the key factors to construct causality circuit diagram and system flow diagram, analyze the influence mechanism of electronic commerce on industrial development, construct the dynamic model of electronic commerce to promote the industrial development of Guizhou, and on the basis of causality diagram and analysis, The system simulation software Stella is used to simulate the above factors, and the system flow diagram of enterprise electronic commerce operation is constructed. Thirdly, based on the grey system theory, this paper collects the change data of the industrial output value above the scale of Guizhou since 2006, and forecasts the change trend by using MATLAB software. The research shows that under the promotion of the development of electronic commerce, The actual output value is higher than the predicted output value, and then the industrial output value above the scale of Guizhou Province and the electronic commerce transaction volume are standardized, and the standard value of the industrial output value above the scale of Guizhou Province and the electronic commerce transaction value over the years are obtained. By comparing the two methods, it is found that the growth trend of the two is highly fitted, and the grey relational analysis method is used to verify the effect of electronic commerce on the industrial development in Guizhou. Finally, according to the above discussion, some suggestions are put forward to speed up the construction of industrial informatization and electronic commerce system, and to promote the application and development of electronic commerce in the process of industrialization in Guizhou.
【学位授予单位】：贵州师范大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：N941.3;F724.6;F427

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