基于移动用户概念漂移视角的创新扩散影响因素研究
发布时间：2018-11-04 17:44
【摘要】：新思想、新技术、新方法相继促进着当今社会的进步,是企业占领先行优势的重要竞争手段。企业若想在更新换代如此快速的当今社会取得进步和发展,根本因素便是创新,而创新扩散是企业占领市场、持续发展的不竭动力。随着全民创新、万众创新时代的到来,人们对于创新的关注度越来越高。对于一个创新产品来说,能否成功扩散是创新成败的关键,因为创新产品的社会价值、经济价值只有成功被用户接受采纳才能实现。因此,深入研究现实社会中各主体行为和创新扩散的影响因素对商家制定战略计划、运营新产品都有着重要意义。创新扩散的媒介是市场,市场中主要存在两类主体:消费者和企业。市场中主体相互之间存在着竞争、合作等多种关系,信息在拥有关系的主体之间传播扩散,为消费者做出决策提供参考意见。而消费者之间在传递信息时建立起的关系又可称为人际关系网络。由此可见,创新扩散是一种微观主体决策和宏观扩散行为相结合的过程,与社会网络微观个体元素和元素之间相互作用涌现为宏观动力学行为的演化模式相吻合。因此本文立足于社会网络结构来研究创新扩散。作为一种新型的电子商务模式,与传统电子商务相比,移动商务最大的特点是以移动通信网络为媒介,以移动终端设备为载体,促进了新产品相关信息的传播和在线交易。随着"互联网+"热潮的到来,移动商务在市场中的适用领域越来越广泛。因此,本文以移动商务活动为例,研究移动消费者的行为状态对创新扩散的影响。在创新扩散过程中存在许多影响因素,目前学术界认为移动商务领域的影响因素主要集中在移动商务自身的发展、用户对移动商务的感知、用户的个性特征这三点。其中移动用户的概念漂移是不可忽视的重要因素,如何从行为模式角度描述主体的概念漂移并将其引入到创新扩散演化过程中,以往这方面的研究很少被关注。因此,本文在已有研究的基础上引入概念漂移因素作为中间变量,并依据班杜拉的三元交互理论,对社会网络环境、交互行为以及主体状态三部分进行分析,在SIR传染病模型的基础上设计主体状态转换规则,运用NetLogo平台构建基于概念漂移的创新扩散仿真实验模型。通过研究得出如下结论。首先,社会网络结构的差异对创新扩散存在着不同的影响。其中无标度社会网络在所有类型的网络结构中环境最开放,网络中节点之间关系优质,信息分享路径广泛,获取信息的价值高,并且人们的社会关系会不断扩张,创新的辐射范围会更广,从而更有利于创新的扩散。其次,在移动商务活动过程中,消费者通过与企业或其他用户的交互获取创新产品的相关信息,通过对信息的评估形成自己的决策。期间移动性能的优劣,创新企业、产品的影响力,以及主体自身的理性程度等都会影响消费者决策的形成过程。移动性差、创新影响力弱、主体自愈能力强都可能会造成消费者对该产品的概念漂移,从而阻碍创新扩散。这些因素的影响效果并不是单一的,会形成不同程度、不同类型的概念漂移。研究发现较大程度以及突变式类型的概念漂移对创新扩散的不利影响更明显。最后,本文针对主要研究内容和结果进行了总结,并为企业扩大市场占有率、吸引用户、提升用户粘度、预防用户流失等提出了相关管理建议:企业应该尽力拓宽扩散渠道,在更开放的环境中争取更多的潜在群体;在扩散新产品的过程中,要注重意见领袖群体的选择及培养,提高产品自身质量,加大宣传力度,以及针对不同特质的用户群体规划相应的扩散方案;同时,应重点注意持徘徊态度的群体,及时防止他们在漂移的过程中转变为流失用户。
[Abstract]:The new thought, the new technology and the new method have promoted the progress of today's society, and it is an important means to take advantage of the enterprise's occupation. If the enterprise wants to make progress and development in such a rapid society, the fundamental factor is innovation, and innovation proliferation is the driving force of the enterprise's market and sustainable development. With the innovation of the whole people and the arrival of all kinds of innovation times, people have become more and more attention to innovation. For an innovative product, success is the key to success or failure, because the social value and economic value of the innovative product can only be achieved by the adoption of the user. Therefore, in-depth study of the influence factors of each subject's behavior and innovation spread in the real society is of great significance to the establishment of strategic plan and operation of new products. The medium of innovation and proliferation is the market, and there are two kinds of main bodies in the market: consumers and enterprises. In the market, there are many kinds of relationships, such as competition and cooperation among the main bodies of the market, the information spreads among the subjects with the relationship, and provides a reference for the decision-making of consumers. And the relationship between consumers in passing information can also be referred to as the network of human relationships. It can be seen that innovation diffusion is a process of micro-body decision-making and macro-diffusion behavior, and the interaction between micro-individual elements and elements of social network emerges to coincide with the evolution pattern of macro-dynamic behavior. Therefore, this paper bases on the social network structure to study the innovation diffusion. As a new type of e-business model, compared with traditional e-commerce, the biggest characteristic of mobile commerce is to use mobile communication network as the medium, mobile terminal equipment as carrier, and promote the dissemination of new product-related information and on-line transaction. With the advent of the "Internet +" boom, mobile commerce is becoming more and more popular in the market. Therefore, based on the mobile business activity, this paper studies the influence of the behavior state of mobile consumers on the innovation diffusion. There are many influential factors in the process of innovation and diffusion. At present, the academic circles believe that the influential factors in the field of mobile commerce mainly focus on the development of mobile commerce itself, the perception of users on mobile commerce, and the individual characteristics of users. In this paper, the concept drift of mobile users is an important factor which is not negligible. How to describe the concept drift of the subject from the behavior mode angle and introduce it into the evolution of innovation diffusion has little attention in the past. Therefore, the concept drift factor is introduced as the intermediate variable on the basis of the existing research, and the social network environment, the interaction behavior and the main body state are analyzed according to the ternary interaction theory of Bandura. On the basis of SIR epidemic model, the subject state conversion rules are designed, and the model of innovative diffusion simulation based on concept drift is constructed by using NetLogo platform. The following conclusions were obtained from the study. Firstly, the difference of social network structure has different influence on innovation diffusion. wherein the non-scale social network is most open in all types of network structures, the relationship among nodes in the network is high, the information sharing path is wide, the value of obtaining information is high, and the social relations of people are continuously expanded, and the innovative radiation range can be wider, so as to be more beneficial to the diffusion of innovation. Secondly, in the course of mobile business activity, the consumer acquires the relevant information of the innovative product through the interaction with the enterprise or other users, and forms its own decision through the evaluation of the information. During the period, the advantages and disadvantages of mobile performance, the influence of innovation enterprises, products, and the rationality of the subject themselves will affect the process of consumer decision-making. Poor mobility, weak innovation, strong self-healing capability can cause consumers to drift in the concept of the product, thus hampering innovation diffusion. The effects of these factors are not single, resulting in different degrees of conceptual drift of different types. It is found that the concept drift of the large degree and the mutation type has a more adverse effect on the innovation diffusion. Finally, this paper summarizes the main research contents and results, and puts forward relevant management suggestions for enterprises to expand market share, attract users, improve user's viscosity, prevent user's loss and so on. Enterprises should try to broaden the diffusion channel. More potential groups are sought in a more open environment; in the process of diffusing new products, attention is paid to the selection and cultivation of opinion leader groups, to improve the quality of products, to increase awareness and to plan the corresponding diffusion schemes for users of different qualities; at the same time, Particular attention should be paid to the wandering group and to prevent them from shifting to losing users in the course of drift.
【学位授予单位】：江西财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2016
【分类号】：F273.1
[Abstract]:The new thought, the new technology and the new method have promoted the progress of today's society, and it is an important means to take advantage of the enterprise's occupation. If the enterprise wants to make progress and development in such a rapid society, the fundamental factor is innovation, and innovation proliferation is the driving force of the enterprise's market and sustainable development. With the innovation of the whole people and the arrival of all kinds of innovation times, people have become more and more attention to innovation. For an innovative product, success is the key to success or failure, because the social value and economic value of the innovative product can only be achieved by the adoption of the user. Therefore, in-depth study of the influence factors of each subject's behavior and innovation spread in the real society is of great significance to the establishment of strategic plan and operation of new products. The medium of innovation and proliferation is the market, and there are two kinds of main bodies in the market: consumers and enterprises. In the market, there are many kinds of relationships, such as competition and cooperation among the main bodies of the market, the information spreads among the subjects with the relationship, and provides a reference for the decision-making of consumers. And the relationship between consumers in passing information can also be referred to as the network of human relationships. It can be seen that innovation diffusion is a process of micro-body decision-making and macro-diffusion behavior, and the interaction between micro-individual elements and elements of social network emerges to coincide with the evolution pattern of macro-dynamic behavior. Therefore, this paper bases on the social network structure to study the innovation diffusion. As a new type of e-business model, compared with traditional e-commerce, the biggest characteristic of mobile commerce is to use mobile communication network as the medium, mobile terminal equipment as carrier, and promote the dissemination of new product-related information and on-line transaction. With the advent of the "Internet +" boom, mobile commerce is becoming more and more popular in the market. Therefore, based on the mobile business activity, this paper studies the influence of the behavior state of mobile consumers on the innovation diffusion. There are many influential factors in the process of innovation and diffusion. At present, the academic circles believe that the influential factors in the field of mobile commerce mainly focus on the development of mobile commerce itself, the perception of users on mobile commerce, and the individual characteristics of users. In this paper, the concept drift of mobile users is an important factor which is not negligible. How to describe the concept drift of the subject from the behavior mode angle and introduce it into the evolution of innovation diffusion has little attention in the past. Therefore, the concept drift factor is introduced as the intermediate variable on the basis of the existing research, and the social network environment, the interaction behavior and the main body state are analyzed according to the ternary interaction theory of Bandura. On the basis of SIR epidemic model, the subject state conversion rules are designed, and the model of innovative diffusion simulation based on concept drift is constructed by using NetLogo platform. The following conclusions were obtained from the study. Firstly, the difference of social network structure has different influence on innovation diffusion. wherein the non-scale social network is most open in all types of network structures, the relationship among nodes in the network is high, the information sharing path is wide, the value of obtaining information is high, and the social relations of people are continuously expanded, and the innovative radiation range can be wider, so as to be more beneficial to the diffusion of innovation. Secondly, in the course of mobile business activity, the consumer acquires the relevant information of the innovative product through the interaction with the enterprise or other users, and forms its own decision through the evaluation of the information. During the period, the advantages and disadvantages of mobile performance, the influence of innovation enterprises, products, and the rationality of the subject themselves will affect the process of consumer decision-making. Poor mobility, weak innovation, strong self-healing capability can cause consumers to drift in the concept of the product, thus hampering innovation diffusion. The effects of these factors are not single, resulting in different degrees of conceptual drift of different types. It is found that the concept drift of the large degree and the mutation type has a more adverse effect on the innovation diffusion. Finally, this paper summarizes the main research contents and results, and puts forward relevant management suggestions for enterprises to expand market share, attract users, improve user's viscosity, prevent user's loss and so on. Enterprises should try to broaden the diffusion channel. More potential groups are sought in a more open environment; in the process of diffusing new products, attention is paid to the selection and cultivation of opinion leader groups, to improve the quality of products, to increase awareness and to plan the corresponding diffusion schemes for users of different qualities; at the same time, Particular attention should be paid to the wandering group and to prevent them from shifting to losing users in the course of drift.
【学位授予单位】：江西财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2016
【分类号】：F273.1
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