日本加入TPP对其农业的影响分析

发布时间：2018-11-12 12:36

【摘要】：从2010年美国正式主导TPP谈判以来,TPP已经连续多年成为全球关注的一个热点问题。日本在2013年7月23日正式加入TPP谈判,成为TPP的第12个成员国。2016年2月4日,美、日、澳大利亚等参与谈判的12个国家正式签署了TPP协议。TPP是在美国主导下开展的,可以说TPP本身就反映了美国的战略意图。奥巴马总统宣布参与TPP谈判得到了美国国内工商界多数集团的支持,这也从一个侧面证明TPP符合美国贸易政策的一些目标,尤其是对亚太地区的战略意图。而从TPP内容上看,其协议内容不仅和传统经贸协定一样,包含货物和服务贸易方面的自由化协定,还涵盖了投资自由化、原产地规则、劳工权利和环境保护、知识产权、政府采购、关税手续、技术贸易壁垒、电子商务交易等非传统领域。对于日本来说,加入TPP是日本政府从综合考虑作出的决策。加入TPP有利于日本提振出口,实现经济振兴。但日本在2013年才决定参与TPP谈判,就是因为日本的农业,虽然日本的农业占GDP比重不高,但是因为其重要的战略作用,一直是备受保护的,在与其他国家的贸易协定中,农业基本都作为保留项目。如果TPP达成,大量廉价农产品将销往日本,日本的农产品市场可能会被摧毁,这是日本所不能接受的。对于参加TPP对于日本农业的影响,日本政府和日本农林水产省曾经做过试算,2010年时,农林水产省的测算结果显示加入TPP会导致日本农林水产业损失7.9万亿日本。2013年3月15日,按照日本政府的统一测算,这个数额则降为2.96万亿日元。而在TPP达成后,日本政府又认为之前的测算过于悲观,应按照协议内容进行重新测算。结果日本政府于2015年12月24日公布的最新测算结果显示,农林水产省受到的影响为1300亿-2100亿之间,而算上日本政府农业对策的政策支持,这个影响可以小到忽略不计,即无论是农林水产业的生产总额还是日本粮食自给率都能保持不变。根据TPP协议和日本政府的试算可以推测TPP对日本农业的影响,可能会导致日本农产品进口增加、日本国内生产缩小、日本农产品价格下降、农业从业者的经营意愿下降、农产品市场竞争更激烈、食品安全规则将会发生变化。而对于日本重点农产品,在实行体质强化对策和经营安定对策下,大米的生产额和产量都不会有影响;小麦的产量不会发生变化,而由于小麦价格的下降,小麦的产值可能有一定下降;大麦的产量不会发生变化,产值则可能会有一定程度的下降;牛肉、猪肉、乳制品的产量不会发生变化,但是产值可能会有比较大幅度的下降;糖料作物的产量不会发生变化,产值可能有小幅度下降。参加TPP对于日本农业来说既是机遇也是挑战,在TPP规则下,会更有利于日本农业的改革。
[Abstract]:Since the United States formally led the TPP negotiations in 2010, TPP has been a hot issue of global concern for many years. Japan formally joined the TPP negotiations on July 23, 2013, and became the 12th member of the TPP. On February 4, 2016, 12 countries such as the United States, Japan and Australia formally signed the TPP Agreement. TPP was carried out under the leadership of the United States. It can be said that the TPP itself reflects the strategic intent of the United States. President Obama's announcement that his participation in the TPP talks has the support of most business groups in the United States is a testament to the fact that the TPP is in line with some of the goals of U.S. trade policy, especially with regard to the strategic intentions of the Asia-Pacific region. In terms of the content of TPP, the agreement not only includes liberalization agreements on trade in goods and services, but also covers liberalization of investment, rules of origin, labor rights and environmental protection, intellectual property rights, as well as traditional economic and trade agreements. Government procurement, tariff procedures, technical barriers to trade, e-commerce transactions and other non-traditional areas. For Japan, accession to the TPP is a decision made by the Japanese government from a comprehensive perspective. Joining TPP is helpful for Japan to boost exports and realize economic rejuvenation. But Japan only decided to participate in the TPP negotiations in 2013 because of Japan's agriculture, which is not a high proportion of GDP, but because of its important strategic role, it has always been protected in its trade agreements with other countries. Agriculture is basically a reserved item. If the TPP is agreed, a lot of cheap produce will be sold to Japan, and Japan's agricultural market could be destroyed, which is unacceptable to Japan. The Japanese government and the Japanese Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries have tried out the impact of participating in the TPP on Japanese agriculture. In 2010, Estimates from the Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries show that joining the TPP would cost Japan 7.9 trillion Japanese dollars. On March 15, 2013, the figure fell to 2.96 trillion yen, according to the Japanese government's unified calculation. After the TPP was reached, the Japanese government thought the previous calculation was too pessimistic and should be recalculated in accordance with the terms of the agreement. Results according to the latest estimates released by the Japanese government on December 24, 2015, the impact on the Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries was between 130 billion and 210 billion, and the impact could be negligible, taking into account the policy support of the Japanese government's agricultural policy. That is, whether the total production of agriculture, forestry and fishery industry or Japan's food self-sufficiency rate can remain unchanged. Based on the TPP agreement and the Japanese government's trial calculation, we can speculate that the impact of TPP on Japanese agriculture may lead to an increase in Japan's agricultural imports, a decrease in domestic production in Japan, a decline in the price of Japanese agricultural products, and a decline in the management willingness of agricultural practitioners. The market for agricultural products is more competitive, food safety rules will change. For the key agricultural products in Japan, the amount of rice production and output will not be affected under the measures of strengthening physique and managing stability. The yield of wheat will not change, but the output value of wheat may decrease to a certain extent because of the decline of wheat price, and the yield of barley will not change, and the output value of barley may decrease to a certain extent. The yield of beef, pork and dairy products will not change, but the output value may drop by a relatively large margin; the yield of sugar crops will not change, and the output value may drop by a small margin. Accession to the TPP is both an opportunity and a challenge for Japanese agriculture. Under the TPP rules, it will be more conducive to the reform of Japanese agriculture.
【学位授予单位】：吉林大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F331.3;F744

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