中国金融自由化的经济效应测度

发布时间：2018-02-16 12:55

本文关键词： 金融自由化经济效应主成分分析法　出处：《中国海洋大学》2014年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：伴随着全球经济迈入新的发展时期，金融，作为现代经济的核心，在经济的发展中发挥着越来越重要的作用。在金融发展历史上，无论是发达的资本主义国家，还是新兴市场国家，都经历过或者正在经历着一系列的金融自由化改革进程。这些金融自由化的改革旨在消除政府管制，发挥市场这张无形的大手，提高金融市场的整体效率。然而，金融业在发挥着服务实体经济，带动经济繁荣的功能的同时，金融体系也绑架了整个经济。千里之堤溃于此，经济危机越来越多的源于金融业的高风险和自由化。对于正走在金融自由化路途中的中国而言，金融自由化既像是一个充满魔力的宝盒。正确使用金融自由化的力量，能够为转型中的中国经济注入鲜活的动力，发挥市场资源配置的优势，完成中国的金融业改革。与此同时，，金融自由化也很可能成为潘多拉的宝盒，释放出经济危机这头巨兽。因此，研究金融自由化的经济效应有重要的实践意义。为了更为全面细致地刻画和描述金融自由化的经济效应。本文在定量测度金融自由化，利用主成分分析法测算金融自由化指数的基础上，一方面，通过机理分析推导金融自由化经济效应的中间变量，进而分析金融自由化的储蓄、投资、效率效应，跳出了传统的分析正负效应或者单一效应的框架；一方面，通过宏观的金融自由化对经济发展影响的回归分析，对我国金融自由化的经济效应进行验证。从理论和实证的角度给出了中国金融自由化经济效应的测度和分析。通过理论推导和实证检验，验证了金融自由化对经济的正向效应。代表我国自由化程度的金融自由化指数除短暂的停滞期外，均处于上升通道，这表明我国金融自由化程度正在逐步加深。通过中间变量的机理分析，在储蓄效应方面，金融自由化对于储蓄的影响不显著。在投资效应方面，固定资产投资和金融自由化指数、GDP、储蓄之间存在长期的协整关系。金融自由化的推进能够直接带来投资数量的增加。在质量效应方面，金融自由化有利于投资效率的提高，且单从系数角度出发比较，效率效应大于其规模效应。在对整体经济进行回归分析中，验证了金融自由化能够有效地解释经济增长，表现出正向的促进作用，这说明我国的金融自由化进程本身已经对经济产生了良性的推动作用。然而，综合的回归结果也表明，金融自由化的效应仍然是较为有限的。这说明，改革过程中，中国的经济增长主要来自外生的投资增长和金融自由化发展过程，金融市场本身的功能还不具备明显的增长效应，即推动力最大的仍然是资本运作及政策导向。这也为我国金融自由化进一步指明了方向，一方面，我们要坚定而稳步地推进金融自由化，另一方面，要通过金融自由化构建完善高效的金融体系，以从根本上促进经济的长效发展。
[Abstract]:With the global economy entering a new period of development, finance, as the core of modern economy, plays an increasingly important role in the development of economy. Or emerging market countries, which have undergone or are undergoing a series of financial liberalization reforms aimed at eliminating government regulation and giving play to the invisible hand of the market. Improve the overall efficiency of financial markets. However, while the financial sector serves the real economy and drives economic prosperity, the financial system has also kidnapped the entire economy. The economic crisis is increasingly due to the high risk and liberalization of the financial sector. For China, which is on the way to financial liberalization, financial liberalization is like a magic box. It can inject fresh impetus into the transforming Chinese economy, give play to the advantages of the allocation of market resources, and complete the reform of China's financial sector. At the same time, financial liberalization is also likely to become Pandora's treasure box. Therefore, it is of great practical significance to study the economic effects of financial liberalization. In order to describe the economic effects of financial liberalization in a more comprehensive and detailed way, this paper, on the basis of quantitative measurement of financial liberalization and the use of principal component analysis (PCA) to calculate the index of financial liberalization, on the one hand, Through mechanism analysis, the intermediate variables of economic effect of financial liberalization are deduced, and then the savings, investment and efficiency effects of financial liberalization are analyzed, which jump out of the traditional framework of analyzing positive and negative effects or single effects; on the one hand, Through the regression analysis of the influence of macro financial liberalization on economic development, this paper verifies the economic effect of financial liberalization in China, and gives the measurement and analysis of the economic effect of financial liberalization in China from the theoretical and empirical perspectives. The positive effect of financial liberalization on the economy is verified by theoretical derivation and empirical test. The financial liberalization index, which represents the degree of liberalization in China, is in a rising channel except for a short period of stagnation. This indicates that the degree of financial liberalization in China is gradually deepening. Through the mechanism analysis of intermediate variables, the effect of financial liberalization on savings is not significant in terms of savings effect. There is a long-term cointegration relationship between fixed asset investment and financial liberalization index (GDP). The promotion of financial liberalization can directly increase the quantity of investment. In terms of quality effect, financial liberalization is beneficial to the improvement of investment efficiency. In the regression analysis of the whole economy, it is proved that financial liberalization can explain economic growth effectively and show positive promoting effect. This shows that the process of financial liberalization in our country has had a positive effect on the economy. However, the comprehensive regression results also show that the effect of financial liberalization is still relatively limited. China's economic growth comes mainly from exogenous investment growth and the development process of financial liberalization. The function of the financial market itself does not have a significant growth effect. That is, the largest driving force is still the capital operation and policy orientation. This has further pointed out the direction of our financial liberalization. On the one hand, we must firmly and steadily promote financial liberalization, on the other hand, We should construct an efficient financial system through financial liberalization in order to promote the long-term development of economy.
【学位授予单位】：中国海洋大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F832;F224

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