人民币资本项目开放的潜在风险和对策研究

发布时间：2018-05-21 06:47

本文选题：资本项目开放 + 潜在风险　；参考：《中共中央党校》2014年硕士论文

【摘要】：资本项目开放是货币国际化进程中的重要步骤，也是一国经济自由化程度的重要衡量标准。国际经验表明，资本项目开放可以使资本在全球范围内自由流动，有利于提高资本要素的资源配置效率、促进一国金融体制的国际化、规范化发展，然而同时也会对本国的经济环境和金融市场产生重大影响，如果得不到合理的安排和控制，甚至可能引发金融危机。随着人民币资本项目开放进入全面推进阶段，对人民币资本项目开放潜在风险和应对策略的讨论也越来越多。本文以“人民币资本项目开放的潜在风险及对策研究”为题，，对于人资本项目开放的历程、现状、潜在风险及应对策略进行了探讨。本文首先对国内外关于资本项目开放条件、次序和风险的研究进行了综述，进而在此基础上展开论述。选取日本、拉美国家、印度和泰国作为考察对象，研究了其资本项目开放的过程，对其中的经验和教训进行总结，并提出了对人民币资本项目开放的启示。接下来，本文从外资引进和利用、金融市场开放历程、外汇管制方面的发展等三个角度介绍了人民币资本项目开放的发展历程和现状，并以IMF界定的资本项目七大类、40个子项为标准对人民币资本项目开放的现状做出分析和评价，认为在40个子项中，我国已有85%的项目实现了完全或部分开放，已经达到较高开放水平。通过对人民币资本项目开放历程的考察和国际经验的分析、总结，本文提出了人民币资本项目开放当前阶段所面临的五类主要风险，包括诱发资本外逃、影响人民币汇率稳定、干扰宏观调控、冲击银行系统稳健性和引发输入型金融危机等。提出必须正视并妥善处理开放过程中的这些风险和危机，实现人民币资本项目开放的效益最大化和风险最小化。最后，针对人民币资本项目开放面临的潜在风险，提出了相应的对策：一是要选择合理的开放次序，包括处理好人民币资本项目开放与汇率市场化、利率市场化改革之间的次序以及资本项目内部各子项目的开放次序；二是从各方面入手完善人民币资本项目开放的风险防范和管理，包括加强跨境资本监督、加快推进利率和汇率市场化、增强银行体系稳健性、完善金融监管体制、建立并完善风险预警机制、加强区域合作等。
[Abstract]:The opening of capital account is an important step in the process of currency internationalization and an important measure of the degree of economic liberalization of a country. International experience shows that the opening of capital items can make capital flow freely around the world, improve the efficiency of resource allocation of capital elements, promote the internationalization of a country's financial system, and standardize the development of the capital project. However, it will also have a significant impact on the economic environment and financial markets in the country. If there is no reasonable arrangement and control, it may even lead to a financial crisis.
With the opening of RMB capital project opening to the full stage, there are more and more discussions on the potential risks and coping strategies of the opening of RMB capital account. This paper, on the topic of "the potential risks and Countermeasures of the opening of RMB capital projects", has carried out the course, current situation, potential risks and coping strategies of the opening of human capital projects. Discuss.
This paper first summarizes the research on the conditions, order and risk of capital account opening at home and abroad, and then discusses the process of opening up the capital project, summarizes the experience and lessons of the capital account, and puts forward the capital of RMB. Next, this article introduces the development course and present situation of the opening of the RMB capital account from three angles, such as the introduction and utilization of foreign capital, the opening course of the financial market, the development of foreign exchange control and so on, and the seven categories of capital items defined by IMF and 40 sub items as the standard to make a division of the current situation of the opening of the RMB capital account. In the 40 sub items, 85% of China's projects have been completely or partly opened, and have reached a higher level of openness.
Through the investigation of the opening course of the RMB capital project and the analysis of the international experience, this paper puts forward five kinds of main risks facing the current stage of the opening of the RMB capital account, which includes inducing capital flight, affecting the stability of the RMB exchange rate, interfering with macroeconomic regulation, punching the conservatism of the banking system and triggering the input financial crisis. We must face up to and properly handle these risks and crises in the process of opening up so as to maximize the benefits and minimize risks of RMB capital account liberalization.
Finally, in view of the potential risks faced by the opening of the RMB capital account, the corresponding countermeasures are put forward: first, we should choose a reasonable opening order, including the handling of the opening of RMB capital items and exchange rate marketization, the order between the reform of interest rate marketization and the opening order of each sub item within the capital project; two We should improve the risk prevention and management of the opening of the RMB capital project, including strengthening the supervision of cross-border capital, speeding up the marketization of interest rate and exchange rate, strengthening the stability of the banking system, perfecting the financial supervision system, establishing and improving the risk early warning mechanism, and strengthening regional cooperation.
【学位授予单位】：中共中央党校
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F832.6

【参考文献】