金砖国家引入FDI的经济效应研究

发布时间：2018-06-24 05:04

本文选题：金砖国家 + FDI　；参考：《南京农业大学》2014年硕士论文

【摘要】：自2008年全球金融危机爆发以来,国际跨境投资严重下滑,发达国家FDI流入量下滑的同时,发展中国家和转型经济体的FDI流入量却保持持续增长态势。截至2013年,金砖国家FDI流入总量达到3220亿美元,占全球总量的比重高达22%,作为新兴经济体代表的金砖五国逐渐成为国际资本的热门选择之一。大量国内外研究证明,外商直接投资对东道国经济的影响日益显著,在改善产业结构、促进技术进步等多方面发挥了重要作用,五国今后的发展也离不开国际资本的支持,但事实也证明过度或是不合理地引入FDI不仅不能够促进一国经济增长,还会起到负面影响。所以,对金砖国家利用外商直接投资经济效应进行比较研究具有非常重要的现实意义。为此,本文紧紧围绕下列三个问题展开深入的理论与实证研究：“金砖五国引入FDI是否都能推进本国经济增长?”、“如果五国之间经济效应的大小及方向有差别,哪些因素导致了这些差异,即哪些因素影响了FDI对本国经济的促进作用?”、“怎样使金砖国家,乃至其他发展中国家更加高效合理地引入FDI?”。本文利用金砖国家1992-2012年权威经济数据,构建VAR模型,利用时间序列多元回归法对金砖国家引入FDI的经济效应进行了实证检验,回答了第一个问题；将实证结果与前文对金砖国家FDI引资现状的分析相结合,通过比较分析法,从三个方面解释了五国间FDI经济效应的差异,回答了第二个问题；在此基础上,本文给出了金砖国家尤其是中国合理引入FDI的政策建议,回答了第三个问题。本文如下结论：首先,金砖国家FDI引资现状各不相同,产业分布都不均衡,引资政策各有利弊,其中印度的引资政策最为高效。其次,金砖国家FDI的经济效应均为正向,但存在较大的差异性,由大到小依次为中国、印度、俄罗斯、南非和巴西。五国间FDI引资效率的差异主要与各国FDI的引入方式、FDI的产业分布以及FDI的引资环境及政策有关：一国绿地投资方式的比重越大,引入的FDI技术含量较高,其产业分布与一国产业结构较为匹配,则FDI对经济增长产生的正向效应越大；完善的基础设施、广阔的市场、优质的人力科技资源、完备的法律体系、适度开放的引资政策,有助于金砖国家更好地发挥FDI的正向经济效应。最后,本文结合金砖国家国情提出了切实可行的政策建议：规范外资企业跨国并购行为,提高本土企业竞争力；加强外商直接投资政策的产业导向作用；完善国内投资环境,为外商直接投资提供完备的制度保证。
[Abstract]:Since the outbreak of the global financial crisis in 2008, international cross-border investment has fallen sharply, while FDI inflows to developed countries have declined, while FDI inflows to developing countries and economies in transition have maintained a sustained growth trend. As of 2013, BRICS FDI inflows reached $322 billion, or 22% of the global total, and the BRICS, the emerging economies' representatives, are becoming one of the hottest options for international capital. A large number of studies at home and abroad have proved that foreign direct investment (FDI) has increasingly affected the host country's economy, played an important role in improving the industrial structure and promoting technological progress, and that the future development of the five countries cannot be separated from the support of international capital. But it has also proved that excessive or unreasonable introduction of FDI not only can not promote a country's economic growth, but also has a negative impact. Therefore, it is of great practical significance to compare the economic effects of foreign direct investment (FDI) in BRICS countries. Therefore, this paper focuses on the following three issues: "will the introduction of FDI by BRICS countries promote their economic growth?" and "if there are differences in the size and direction of the economic effects among the five countries," What factors have contributed to these differences, that is, what factors have affected the contribution of FDI to their economies? "how can the BRICS and other developing countries introduce FDI more efficiently and reasonably?" Based on the authoritative economic data of BRICS countries from 1992 to 2012, this paper constructs a VAR model, and uses the time series multiple regression method to test the economic effects of FDI in BRICS countries, and answers the first question. Combining the empirical results with the previous analysis of the current situation of FDI attraction in BRICS countries, through comparative analysis, this paper explains the differences of FDI economic effects among the five countries from three aspects, and answers the second question. This paper gives the policy suggestions of introducing FDI into BRICS countries, especially China, and answers the third question. The conclusions are as follows: first of all, the current situation of FDI attraction in BRICS countries is different, the industrial distribution is uneven, and there are advantages and disadvantages of FDI policies in BRICS countries, among which India's FDI policy is the most efficient. Secondly, the economic effects of FDI in BRICS countries are all positive, but there are great differences, from big to small: China, India, Russia, South Africa and Brazil. The differences of FDI attraction efficiency among five countries are mainly related to the industrial distribution of FDI and the environment and policies of FDI: the larger the proportion of greenbelt investment, the higher the technology content of FDI. If the industrial distribution is in line with the industrial structure of a country, the positive effect of FDI on economic growth will be greater, the perfect infrastructure, the broad market, the high quality human resources, the perfect legal system, the moderately open investment policy, This will help the BRICS countries better exert the positive economic effect of FDI. Finally, according to the national conditions of BRICS countries, this paper puts forward some practical policy suggestions: standardizing cross-border mergers and acquisitions of foreign-funded enterprises, improving the competitiveness of local enterprises, strengthening the industrial orientation of FDI policies, improving the domestic investment environment, Provide complete system guarantee for foreign direct investment.
【学位授予单位】：南京农业大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F831.6

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