东亚通货膨胀趋势及决定因素

发布时间：2018-07-05 06:36

本文选题：东亚 + 通货膨胀趋势　；参考：《国际经贸探索》2012年02期

【摘要】：文章选取11个东亚国家和地区的数据为代表,采用针对不同国家的最优ARIMA模型预测东亚通货膨胀的发展趋势,发现东亚大部分国家面临较大的通货膨胀压力,通货膨胀持续上涨的趋势明显。并采用面板数据和Pooled-OLS分析法分析东亚通货膨胀的决定因素,研究表明东亚的通货膨胀形成的原因复杂,在惯性通胀、产出缺口、国际油价和粮食价格等多个因素的共同作用下形成;并发现次贷危机前后的东亚通货膨胀的决定因素有所不同,次贷危机前石油和粮食价格等成本因素大大地推动了东亚的通货膨胀,次贷危机后产出缺口等需求因素较大地影响了东亚的通货膨胀。针对东亚通货膨胀问题,文章提出包括中央银行改革、紧缩性货币政策、能源和粮食储备战略和调控个别行业或商品的对策和建议。
[Abstract]:Based on the data of 11 East Asian countries and regions, this paper uses the optimal ARIMA model for different countries to predict the trend of East Asian inflation, and finds that most of the countries in East Asia face greater inflation pressure, and the trend of inflation continues to rise is obvious. And the use of panel data and Pooled-OLS analysis to analyze East Asia The determinants of inflation have shown that the causes of inflation in East Asia are complex, under the joint effect of many factors such as inertial inflation, output gap, international oil price and grain price, and the determinants of East Asian inflation before and after the subprime crisis are different, oil and grain prices before the subprime crisis. This factor has greatly promoted the inflation in East Asia, and the demand factors such as the output gap after the subprime crisis have greatly affected the inflation in East Asia. In view of the inflation in East Asia, the article puts forward the countermeasures and suggestions of the central bank reform, the tight monetary policy, the energy and grain reserve strategy and the regulation and control of individual industries or commodities.
【作者单位】：暨南大学经济学院;
【基金】：中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金资助(11JYB2017) 教育部人文社会科学基金(10YJA790157)
【分类号】：F821.5;F224

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