国际因素对中国通货膨胀的非线性传导效应

发布时间：2018-07-06 15:22

本文选题：通货膨胀 + 国际因素　；参考：《经济研究》2015年06期

【摘要】：本文扩展GamberHung(2001)的分析框架,研究国际因素对通货膨胀传导渠道的非线性转换。基于此,本文构建通货膨胀影响因素的数据信息集,使用动态因子模型刻画国际因素对中国通货膨胀的非线性传导效应。结果表明:国际因素最终通过资本渠道和贸易渠道对中国通货膨胀形成共同传导效应和特质传导效应,两类传导效应都随着中国对外经济结构的转变而具有非线性。随着我国以刺激内需为主的经济结构缓慢转型,国际因素对中国通胀的传导效应将适当减弱。影响中国通货膨胀的国际因素可综合为6个国际共同因子,其中国际成本因子、国际能源因子、国际货币因子和对外贸易因子对当前通货膨胀形成负向非线性共同传导效应,并且国际成本因子和国际能源因子的负向共同传导效应较大。美国量化宽松货币政策退出、美元指数强势、国际原材料价格和国际能源价格下降等国际因素还对中国通货膨胀形成负向特质传导效应。综合来看,近期国际因素对当前中国通货膨胀具有抑制效应。
[Abstract]:This paper extends Gamber Hung's (2001) analytical framework to study the nonlinear transformation of international factors to inflation transmission channels. Based on this, this paper constructs a data set of inflation influencing factors, and uses dynamic factor model to describe the nonlinear conduction effect of international factors on inflation in China. The results show that international factors ultimately form a common conduction effect and a trait conduction effect on China's inflation through capital channels and trade channels, both of which are nonlinear with the change of China's external economic structure. With the slow transformation of China's economic structure, which is based on stimulating domestic demand, the conduction effect of international factors on China's inflation will be weakened appropriately. The international factors affecting China's inflation can be synthesized into six international common factors, among which international cost factor, international energy factor, international monetary factor and foreign trade factor have negative nonlinear co-conduction effect on current inflation. And the negative co-conduction effect of international cost factor and international energy factor is larger. The withdrawal of the United States quantitative easing monetary policy, the strong dollar index, and the decline in international raw material prices and international energy prices also have a negative transmission effect on China's inflation. Overall, the recent international factors on the current Chinese inflation has a restraining effect.
【作者单位】：中南财经政法大学金融学院;华东交通大学经济管理学院;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金项目(71371189,71161010,71262010) 国家社会科学基金项目(13BJY173) 全国优秀博士论文基金项目(201305) 江西省“赣鄱英才555”领军人才项目的资助
【分类号】：F822.5

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