美元弱势调整对中国省级出口技术水平的影响

发布时间：2018-07-12 15:32

  本文选题：美元弱势调整 + 出口技术水平　； 参考：《复旦大学》2014年硕士论文

【摘要】：针对美元弱势调整背景下中美贸易关系这一问题,本文认为研究汇率变化对出口技术水平的影响比研究其对出口贸易量的影响更有理论和现实意义。为此,本文综合运用比较分析、计量分析等方法,对这一问题进行全面研究,不仅从理论上论证了汇率对出口技术水平影响的传导机制,并分别运用常系数模型和变系数模型分析了汇率对中国总出口技术水平和各区域出口技术水平的影响,并为影响机制的理论分析提供了经验证据。第一,对中国省级出口技术水平进行测算,并在此基础上将出口产品划分为高中低三类,进而从时间、区域、省份和产品四个维度对中国省级出口技术水平进行横向和纵向比较分析。研究发现,虽然中国总的出口技术水平逐年提高,但区域出口技术水平存在较大差异,并且差异有不断扩大的趋势。第二,从理论上探讨了汇率对出口技术水平的影响机制。从生产成本角度看,本币升值可以降低进口投入品的利用成本,从而有利于较多利用进口投入品的高技术产品。从市场定价角度看,高技术产品出口价格汇率弹性大,厂商可以提高价格来抵消成本上升的影响。从汇率弹性角度看,高技术产品出口需求价格弹性小而出口供给价格弹性大,受汇率升值影响小。第三,采用2002-2008年省级面板数据运用固定效应模型进行常系数估计以研究美元弱势调整对中国总出口技术水平的影响。研究发现,美元弱势调整会显著促进中国出口技术水平的提升。此外,物质资本、人力资本、技术水平和汇改也有积极影响,FDI对中国总出口技术水平的影响为正但并不显著。第四,考虑到中国区域发展的不平衡性,进一步运用空间地理模型进行变系数估计以探究美元弱势调整对中国不同省市出口技术水平的影响。研究发现,汇率、物质资本、人力资本和汇改均具有显著的空间变异性,而技术水平和FDI的空间变异性相对较小。其中,汇率、物质资本和汇改对东部地区的作用要小于中西部地区；人力资本对东部地区的作用要大于中西部地区。第五,总结研究结论并提出相应政策建议。面对区域技术水平差距不断扩大的趋势,应加大中西部开发力度,包括基础设施建设和人才支持等。在美元弱势调整的大背景下,将贸易重心由低技术产品转向高技术产品,同时完善人民币汇率的市场化形成机制,增加汇率灵活性。此外,应引导民营资本投资,大力发展教育和科研事业,促进物质资本和人力资本的积累以及技术水平的提升。
[Abstract]:In view of the problem of Sino-US trade relations under the background of weak adjustment of US dollar, this paper holds that it is more theoretical and practical significance to study the influence of exchange rate change on export technical level than to study its influence on export trade volume. Therefore, this paper makes a comprehensive study of this problem by means of comparative analysis and econometric analysis, which not only demonstrates theoretically the transmission mechanism of the influence of exchange rate on export technology level. The influence of exchange rate on Chinese total export technology level and regional export technology level is analyzed by using constant coefficient model and variable coefficient model respectively. The empirical evidence is provided for the theoretical analysis of the influence mechanism. First, the technical level of China's export at the provincial level is measured, and on this basis, the export products are divided into three categories, high, middle and low, and then from time to time and region. The horizontal and vertical comparative analysis of Chinese provincial export technology level is carried out in four dimensions of provinces and products. It is found that although the total export technology level of China is increasing year by year, there are great differences in the regional export technology level, and the differences have a tendency to expand. Secondly, the influence mechanism of exchange rate on export technology level is discussed theoretically. From the point of view of production cost, the appreciation of local currency can reduce the utilization cost of imported inputs, which is beneficial to the high technology products which make more use of imported inputs. From the market pricing point of view, high-tech products export price flexibility, manufacturers can raise prices to offset the impact of rising costs. From the point of view of exchange rate elasticity, the price elasticity of export demand of high-tech products is small, and the price elasticity of export supply is large, which is little affected by exchange rate appreciation. Thirdly, we use the provincial panel data from 2002 to 2008 to estimate the constant coefficients by using the fixed effect model to study the impact of the weak adjustment of the US dollar on the technical level of China's total export. The study found that the weak dollar adjustment will significantly promote China's export technology level. In addition, material capital, human capital, technological level and exchange rate reform also have a positive impact on China's total export technology level, but not significant. Fourth, considering the imbalance of regional development in China, we further use the spatial geographical model to estimate the variable coefficients to explore the impact of the weak adjustment of US dollar on the export technology level of different provinces and cities in China. It is found that the exchange rate, material capital, human capital and exchange rate reform have significant spatial variability, while the technological level and the spatial variability of FDI are relatively small. The effect of exchange rate, material capital and exchange rate reform on the eastern region is smaller than that of the central and western regions, and the effect of human capital on the eastern region is greater than that of the central and western region. Fifth, summarize the research conclusions and put forward the corresponding policy recommendations. In the face of the increasing gap of regional technical level, we should strengthen the development of the central and western regions, including infrastructure construction and talent support. Under the background of the weak adjustment of the US dollar, the focus of trade should be shifted from low-technology products to high-tech products, and at the same time, the marketization mechanism of RMB exchange rate should be improved and the exchange rate flexibility should be increased. In addition, we should guide private capital investment, vigorously develop education and scientific research, promote the accumulation of material capital and human capital and raise the level of technology.
【学位授予单位】：复旦大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F752.62;F837.12
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本文编号：2117618