金融脱媒及其对商业银行盈利影响的实证分析

发布时间：2018-07-20 14:22

【摘要】：“金融脱媒”这一新兴术语最早出现在美国。20世纪60年代,美国为了扭转国际交易的逆差,摆脱高失业率,颁布了“Q条例”。“Q条例”对银行存款利率设置上限,它的实施促使资金脱离银行这一中介机构,金融脱媒由此出现。随着我国资本市场和经济的不断发展完善,我国的资金也出现了绕开银行进行体制外流通的金融脱媒现象。通过对金融脱媒在我国的发展现状分析,认为金融脱媒在我国的发展仍然是一种长期的趋势。金融脱媒不仅会对银行业的存贷款产生严重的冲击,造成银行业的流动性短缺,同时也为我国商业银行进行转型提供了相应的条件。我国银行业,一方面要顺应金融市场的发展趋势,加快传统业务的转型和调整；另一方面,银行业要提高创新能力,以应对金融脱媒带来的负面影响。本文在现有研究成果的基础上,结合我国的实际情况,形成以下研究思路。1)本文选择合适的公式,采用国际通用的资产中介化率指标和负债中介化率指标,选择2003年至2011年九年的数据,对脱媒进行了量化,通过核算的结果来具体分析我国金融脱媒的主要表现形式,在分析的过程中还加入了金融脱媒的逆转化分析；2)本文对脱媒概念进行界定,考虑到互联网金融的发展也会引起脱媒这一现象,因此本文将金融脱媒的指标细化为资产方脱媒、负债方脱媒和技术性脱媒,在此基础上对中国现阶段脱媒的发展现状进行分析,并结合这些特点进行了必要的原因分析；3)本文详细的论述了金融脱媒对我国商业银行存贷款和盈利能力的影响,本文的核心内容是将金融脱媒对商业银行盈利能力的影响进行了实证分析；4)通过上述的现状分析、实证分析,结合我国银行业发展的具体情况得出文章的结论,并形成相应的政策建议。由于金融脱媒会对存贷款产生冲击,本文提出银行应该转变经营理念,不应只关注存贷款,而应该提供更有针对性的增值服务。实证结果表明金融脱媒会对银行的盈利能力产生冲击,本文提出应该创新资产业务、负债业务和中间业务等来保持盈利能力的增长。从前文对技术性脱媒的分析,本文还提出应该大力发展电子银行业务来应对技术脱媒。通过本文的研究,希望能够找到商业银行盈利能力的创新点,从而最大程度上减少金融脱媒对银行业产生的冲击
[Abstract]:The new term "financial disintermediation" first appeared in the United States in the 1960s. In order to reverse the deficit in international transactions and get rid of the high unemployment rate, the United States promulgated "Q regulations," which set a cap on the interest rates on bank deposits. Its implementation causes the capital to leave the bank this intermediary organization, the financial disintermediation appears thereby. With the continuous development of the capital market and economy in our country, the financial disintermediation phenomenon which bypasses the banks to carry on the circulation outside the system has also appeared in our country. Based on the analysis of the current situation of financial disintermediation in China, it is considered that the development of financial disintermediation in China is still a long-term trend. Financial disintermediation will not only have a serious impact on the banking deposits and loans, resulting in a shortage of liquidity in the banking sector, but also provide the corresponding conditions for the transformation of commercial banks in China. On the one hand, China's banking industry should adapt to the development trend of financial market and accelerate the transformation and adjustment of traditional business; on the other hand, the banking industry should improve its innovation ability in order to cope with the negative impact brought by financial disintermediation. On the basis of the existing research results, combined with the actual situation in China, this paper forms the following research ideas. 1) this paper selects the appropriate formula, adopts the international common asset intermediation rate index and the liability intermediation rate index. Selecting the data from 2003 to 2011, the paper quantifies the disintermediation, analyzes the main forms of financial disintermediation in China through the results of accounting, and adds the reverse analysis of financial disintermediation in the process of analysis. 2) this paper defines the concept of disintermediation, considering that the development of Internet finance will also lead to the phenomenon of disintermediation, so the index of financial disintermediation is classified as asset-side disintermediation, debt-side disintermediation and technical disintermediation. On this basis, this paper analyzes the current development situation of disintermediation in China, and analyzes the necessary reasons combined with these characteristics. 3) this paper discusses in detail the influence of financial disintermediation on the deposit, loan and profitability of commercial banks in China. The core content of this paper is to analyze the impact of financial disintermediation on the profitability of commercial banks. 4) through the above analysis of the current situation, empirical analysis, combined with the specific situation of the development of the banking industry in China to draw the conclusion of the article. And form the corresponding policy recommendations. Since financial disintermediation will have an impact on deposits and loans, this paper suggests that banks should change their business philosophy and should not only pay attention to deposits and loans, but also provide more targeted value-added services. The empirical results show that financial disintermediation will have an impact on the profitability of banks. This paper proposes that we should innovate asset business, liability business and intermediate business to maintain the growth of profitability. From the previous analysis of technical disintermediation, this paper also puts forward that we should develop electronic banking business to deal with technical disintermediation. Through the research of this paper, we hope to find the innovation point of commercial banks' profitability, so as to minimize the impact of financial disintermediation on the banking industry.
【学位授予单位】：山东大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F832.33;F832.2

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