供给因素、结构变化、汇率与我国的双边贸易

发布时间：2018-07-25 16:44

【摘要】：基于考虑供给因素、结构变化的出口决定模型,采用两方程方法和单方程方法研究了外国GDP、中国GDP、结构变化、汇率与我国17个双边贸易之间的关系。研究表明:供给因素、结构变化对我国双边贸易有重要影响,供给因素对我国与美、澳、马、巴、新、泰、加进口及出口的影响存在严重的不对称性,结构变化对我国与德、印、加进口及出口的影响存在严重的不对称性,汇率对中国对15个贸易伙伴国出口与进口的影响存在严重的不对称性。采用出口除进口表示贸易收支做法的单方程方法的研究存在严重错误。经济增长模式对双边贸易有重要影响,人民币升值对我国双边贸易不平衡有一定的矫正作用,对改善我国双边贸易不平衡的国别分布有较大的积极作用。
[Abstract]:Based on the export decision model considering the supply factor and structural change, the relationship between foreign GDP, China GDP, structural change, exchange rate and China's 17 bilateral trade is studied by using two-equation method and single-equation method. The results show that: supply factors, structural changes have an important impact on China's bilateral trade, and supply factors have serious asymmetries on China and the United States, Australia, Malaysia, Pakistan, Singapore, Thailand, Canada, imports and exports, and structural changes on China and Germany. There is serious asymmetry in the influence of import and export between India and Canada, and the influence of exchange rate on the export and import of 15 trading partners. There is a serious error in the study of the single equation method which uses export divide import to represent trade balance. The pattern of economic growth has an important influence on bilateral trade. The appreciation of RMB can correct the imbalance of bilateral trade in China to some extent, and play a positive role in improving the country distribution of bilateral trade imbalance in China.
【作者单位】：东北财经大学经济计量分析与预测研究中心;
【基金】：国家社科基金项目“人民币汇率与中美贸易不平衡问题实证研究”(11BJY014) 辽宁省教育厅项目“辽宁出口可持续增长研究—基于多维度模型的计量分析”(WJ2010028)的资助
【分类号】：F224;F752;F832.6

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