论投机资本与实体资本均衡发展的宏观管理政策选择

发布时间：2018-07-31 11:55

【摘要】：金融创新的开放经济时代,在人民币资产对外价格预期稳定和资本项目逐渐放开、国际国内流动性过剩资本对利率的反映程度大于消费和投资对利率的反映程度、虚拟资本规模过大、投机资本和实体投资资本失衡日趋严重的情况下,央行频繁以存款准备金率为主要手段的货币供给量调节,最多对流通中货币存量调整的利率变化引致的收入变化略有短期效应,而对资产泡沫时代的交易信用化指标,这个某种意义上反映投机资本规模的投机资本严重脱离实体投资的货币流量问题没有多少影响。本文以近10年中国的宏观流量指标:国民收入,M1、M2意义上的货币供给量,M1、M2意义上的货币流通速度,物价指数,存款准备金率等指标的变化为依据,在新旧货币数量方程和凯恩斯主义的货币利息理论的框架基础上,拟造投机资本函数方程,计算近10年中国投机资本和投资资本规模并比较其失衡程度,构建投机资本和投资资本一般均衡模式,并针对中国投机资本和投资资本市场失衡、投机资本脱离实体投资过度膨胀的主要因素,提出实现投机资本与投资资本均衡发展的宏观管理政策组合选择。M2Y
[Abstract]:In the era of open economy of financial innovation, the expectation of RMB assets' external price is stable and the capital account is gradually liberalized. The degree of reaction of excess liquidity capital to interest rate is greater than that of consumption and investment. When the scale of fictitious capital is too large and the imbalance between speculative capital and real investment capital is becoming more and more serious, the central bank frequently adjusts the money supply by taking the reserve requirement ratio as the main means. At most, it has a slight short-term effect on the change in income caused by the change in interest rates adjusted for money stock in circulation, while on the creditworthiness index of transactions in the era of asset bubbles, In a sense, speculative capital, which reflects the size of speculative capital, is seriously detached from the money flow problem of real investment. This paper is based on the change of the macro-flow index of China in the past 10 years: the money supply in the sense of national income M1M ~ 2 and the change of money circulation velocity, price index and deposit reserve ratio in the sense of M _ 1 / M _ 2, etc. On the basis of quantity equation of old and new currency and Keynesian theory of interest on currency, this paper proposes to construct the function equation of speculative capital, and to calculate the scale of speculative capital and investment capital of China in the last 10 years and compare the degree of imbalance between them. Constructing the general equilibrium model of speculative capital and investment capital, and aiming at the imbalance of speculative capital and investment capital market in China, the main factors that the speculative capital deviates from the excessive expansion of real investment. This paper puts forward the choice of macro management policy combination to realize the balanced development of speculative capital and investment capital. M2Y
【作者单位】：山东财经大学经济学院;
【基金】：王少梅主持的山东省软科学研究项目“经济福利体制的演化博弈”(GA2011)的部分研究成果
【分类号】：F832;F123.16

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