中国经常账户失衡问题研究——基于金融发展程度-消费-经常账户路径

发布时间：2018-08-02 11:52

【摘要】：本文沿着金融发展程度-消费-经常账户失衡的路径对中国经常账户失衡问题进行了理论和实证分析。理论分析结果表明,一国的经常账户余额/GDP受消费率的影响,而一国的消费率又受一国金融发展程度的影响。在此基础上,本文运用联立方程的方法对我国金融发展程度、消费、经常账户失衡三者的动态关系进行了实证分析。实证分析的结果表明,中国经常账户的失衡受消费率显著负向影响,而消费率受金融发展程度的显著影响。在对金融发展程度变量的处理上,本文选取了代表金融发展的10个指标,对这些金融发展代理变量进行主成分分析,通过提取它们的第一主成分、第二主成分来获得一个金融发展的综合变量,从而避免某单一变量或几个变量代表性不足的问题。最后,文章提出了相关建议。
[Abstract]:This paper carries out a theoretical and empirical analysis of the current account imbalance in China along the path of financial development - consumption - current account imbalances. The theoretical analysis shows that the current account balance of a country is affected by the consumption rate and the consumption rate of a country is influenced by the degree of financial development of a country. On this basis, this paper uses the /GDP. The method of vertical equation is an empirical analysis of the dynamic relationship between the financial development degree, consumption and current account imbalance in China. The results of the empirical analysis show that the imbalance of China's current account is negatively affected by the consumption rate, and the consumption rate is significantly affected by the degree of financial development. In the process of dealing with the degree of financial development, this article is based on this paper. 10 indexes representing financial development are selected, and the principal component analysis of these financial development agents is carried out. By extracting their first principal components and second principal components, a comprehensive variable of financial development is obtained, thus avoiding the problem of a single variable or a few variables, which are not sufficiently representative. Finally, the article puts forward some relevant suggestions.
【作者单位】：山西大学经济与工商管理学院;山西大学管理学院;
【基金】：教育部人文社科青年基金资助(12JYC790251):跨期消费视角下中国金融发展程度影响经常项目的动态路径研究山西大学校科研基金(11909024):金融发展程度视角下的中国经常项目失衡影响因素分析
【分类号】：F832;F224

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