国际金融整合下资金流动与经济增长之关系——基于新兴市场国家面板数据的分析

发布时间：2018-08-09 07:26

【摘要】：引入特定的宏观经济、金融和政策变量等控制变量后,本文尝试检验东欧、东亚和拉丁美洲三大主要新兴市场国家或地区的资金流动方向及其对经济增长的影响,以及近来众所关切的全球经常账户失衡问题。实证结果显示:东欧国家收入水平与金融深化程度仍然偏低,但随着发展程度提高,未来将由资金流入转为流出。东亚国家或地区的超额外汇储备、贸易顺差与资金流出,被指控为造成美国巨额经常账户赤字与全球经常账户失衡的主要原因之一。但若能够持续金融深化的努力,资金可能回流并使全球经常账户失衡现象得以缓解。至于拉丁美洲国家的宏观经济、金融和政策特征变量,对于资金流动方向并无决定性影响,但财政与货币政策仍是决定资金流入能否有助于经济增长的关键因素。
[Abstract]:With the introduction of specific macroeconomic, financial and policy variables, this paper attempts to test the direction of capital flows and their impact on economic growth in the three major emerging market countries or regions of Eastern Europe, East Asia and Latin America. And recent concerns about global current account imbalances. The empirical results show that the income level and financial deepening of Eastern European countries are still on the low side, but with the improvement of the development level, capital inflows will be turned into outflows in the future. Excess foreign exchange reserves, trade surpluses and outflows from East Asian countries have been blamed for one of the main causes of the large current account deficit and global current account imbalances in the United States. But sustained financial deepening efforts could lead to a return of capital and ease of global current account imbalances. As for the macroeconomic, financial and policy characteristics of Latin American countries, there is no decisive impact on the direction of financial flows, but fiscal and monetary policies are still key factors in determining whether capital inflows can contribute to economic growth.
【作者单位】：安徽大学经济学院;
【基金】：国家社科基金重大项目(11&ZD011) 教育部人文社会科学研究资助项目(10YJA790076)
【分类号】：F831.6;F113;F224

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