欧债危机对中国FDI流入影响的研究

发布时间：2018-08-11 19:15

【摘要】：受到美国次贷危机引发的全球金融危机的影响,2009年希腊发生主权债务危机,欧洲央行(ECB)及欧盟成员国的救助措施并没有能够抑制这场危机的蔓延,随后欧盟其它四国也相继爆发债务危机。欧债危机不仅使希腊等国的经济遭受负面打击,也影响到了欧盟其他外围国家及中心国家,造成了欧盟经济增长受阻、失业率升高、总需求下降等问题。欧债危机的影响也通过国际资本流动和国际贸易等途径传导至其他国家,欧盟作为世界向外FDI最大的经济体,欧债危机必然会从数量上和结构上影响世界FDI格局。中国与欧盟在经济贸易方面都有着密切的合作关系,虽然欧盟对中国的FDl只占欧盟对外直接投资较小的份额,但欧盟是中国外资的重要来源,欧债危机期间欧盟对华直接投资的变化必然会影响中国经济。同时,欧债危机期间欧盟以外其它经济体对中国的直接投资也会受到不同程度的影响。本文从理论方面分析欧债危机对中国国际直接投资的影响途径,并利用2000年到2012年的面板数据估计欧债危机对中国FDI流入的影响程度。首先,本文分析了欧债危机发生的直接和根本原因；其次,通过对数据的统计描述,分析中国FDI流入的特点、欧盟对中国FDI的特点以及欧债危机对中国FDI流入影响的表现；然后,本文从理论上分析欧债危机影响中国FDI流入的机制,认为欧债危机主要通过对市场规模、汇率、贸易和投资国流动性这四个因素的影响作用于中国FDI流入；最后,本文通过实证研究分析欧债危机期间这些因素对欧盟国家在中国直接投资的影响。本文得出结论,认为欧债危机主要通过市场规模、汇率等因素导致欧盟对中国FDI流入减少,而亚洲对华直接投资的主要国家和地区、部分避税天堂国家对华直接投资没有受到显著负面影响。因此,中国短期内吸引外资政策的调整应主要针对欧盟国家,并主要重视改善中国长期投资软硬环境,而较少地利用税收优惠等短期政策。
[Abstract]:Affected by the global financial crisis caused by the subprime mortgage crisis in the United States, Greece suffered a sovereign debt crisis in 2009. The European Central Bank (ECB) (ECB) and the rescue measures of the European Union member States have not been able to curb the spread of the crisis. Then the other four EU countries also broke out a debt crisis. The European debt crisis not only hit the economies of Greece and other countries negatively, but also affected other peripheral countries and central countries of the European Union, resulting in the EU's economic growth being blocked, unemployment rising, aggregate demand falling and so on. The impact of the European debt crisis is also transmitted to other countries through international capital flows and international trade. As the largest FDI economy in the world, the European debt crisis will inevitably affect the world FDI pattern in quantity and structure. China and the European Union have close cooperation in economic and trade relations. Although EU FDl to China accounts for only a small share of EU foreign direct investment, the EU is an important source of Chinese foreign investment. The change of EU direct investment in China during the European debt crisis will inevitably affect the Chinese economy. At the same time, direct investment in China by other economies outside the EU will also be affected to varying degrees during the European debt crisis. This paper theoretically analyzes the impact of the European debt crisis on China's international direct investment, and estimates the impact of the European debt crisis on China's FDI inflows by using panel data from 2000 to 2012. First, this paper analyzes the direct and fundamental causes of the European debt crisis, secondly, through the statistical description of the data, analyzes the characteristics of China's FDI inflow, the characteristics of the EU's FDI to China and the impact of the European debt crisis on China's FDI inflow. Then, this paper theoretically analyzes the mechanism of European debt crisis affecting China's FDI inflow, and concludes that the European debt crisis mainly affects China's FDI inflow through four factors: market size, exchange rate, trade and investment country liquidity. This paper analyzes the impact of these factors on EU countries' direct investment in China during the European debt crisis. The paper concludes that the European debt crisis is mainly caused by the market size, exchange rate and other factors leading to the decrease of EU FDI inflows to China, while the main countries and regions of Asian direct investment in China. Direct investment in China by some tax havens countries has not been significantly adversely affected. Therefore, the adjustment of China's foreign investment policy in the short term should be aimed at European Union countries, and pay more attention to improving China's long-term investment environment, while making less use of short-term policies such as tax preference.
【学位授予单位】：复旦大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F832.6

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