中国存款准备金率理论上限测算及应用研究——基于货币政策使用空间的视角

发布时间：2018-08-15 19:38

【摘要】：在货币紧缩过程中,使用准备金率工具关键在于把握好尺度,降低政策超调风险,为此必须研究存款准备金率上限。本文依据国民经济收入流量循环模型,在分析货币经济中"漏出"问题解决方式和货币控制的基础上,以存款准备金率来统一度量货币政策空间,建立起一个分析框架,得出一个基于宏观调控考虑的、用以衡量货币政策空间的存款准备金率理论上限公式,测算了1993年以来各年的上限值,并结合货币政策使用力度进行实证研究。研究结论为,存款准备金率理论上限客观存在,在引入菲利普斯曲线之后,发现在经济处于不同状态、各种因素持续变动时,准备金率理论上限是动态变化的。对准备金率理论上限与货币政策力度的格兰杰因果关系检验表明,从宏观调控层面看,准备金率理论上限能够为货币当局把握政策方向和政策力度提供数量化依据,从而可以降低"超调"、"硬着陆"的风险。
[Abstract]:In the process of monetary tightening, the key to use the reserve ratio tool is to grasp the scale and reduce the risk of overshoot. Therefore, we must study the upper limit of reserve ratio. Based on the circulation model of national economic income flow, on the basis of analyzing the solution of "leakage" problem and currency control in the monetary economy, this paper measures the monetary policy space by using the reserve requirement ratio, and establishes an analytical framework. A theoretical upper limit formula of reserve ratio which is used to measure the space of monetary policy is obtained based on macro-control, and the upper limit value of each year since 1993 is calculated, and the empirical study is carried out in combination with the intensity of monetary policy use. The conclusion is that the theoretical upper limit of reserve ratio exists objectively. After introducing Phillips curve, it is found that the theoretical upper limit of reserve ratio is dynamic when the economy is in different states and various factors continue to change. The Granger causality test on the theoretical upper limit of reserve ratio and monetary policy intensity shows that the theoretical upper limit of reserve ratio can provide quantitative basis for monetary authorities to grasp the policy direction and policy strength from the macro control level. This can reduce the risk of overshoot and hard landing.
【作者单位】：对外经济贸易大学金融学院博士后流动站;北京外国语大学国际商学院;
【基金】：中国博士后科学基金(20100480243)的资助
【分类号】：F822.0;F224

【参考文献】