汇率变动对浙江大宗农产品进口贸易的影响研究
发布时间：2018-08-23 12:42
【摘要】：浙江省地处中国东部沿海地区，有着丰富的地理资源，趁着改革开放的东风，大宗农产品进出口贸易发展迅速。但中国大宗农产品在国际上没有定价权，竞争力较弱，因此汇率变动对大宗农产品贸易的影响就变得至关重要了。 自2005年7月21日，人民币汇率调整成浮动汇率制度后，人民币就持续升值，直接影响了国际贸易收支，浙江大宗农产品进出口贸易开始出现逆差，并逐年扩大。汇率变动通过大宗农产品进口价格变化、企业利润变化、升值预期等途径来影响大宗农产品进口贸易。根据经济学理论，人民币汇率升值会减少大宗农产品出口而增加进口，浙江农产品生产企业可以借由人民币汇率升值契机大力引进农产品生产专利和高科技生产设备，不仅有效提升企业实力促进国内农业稳定发展，还能使我国在国际大宗农产品交易市场上具有一定价格控制权。 本文基于国际经济学、国际贸易理论和计量经济学的相关理论，并借鉴了国内外学者的相关文献，通过五个章节进行系统分析汇率变动对浙江大宗农产品进口贸易的影响。数据选用2005年到2012年浙江大宗农产品进口的季度数据进行建模分析，又分别对主要进口品种大豆、原棉和食用植物油进行实证分析。 实证结果表明，人民币实际有效汇率对浙江大宗农产品进口贸易是一个显著影响的因素，但是当期人民币实际有效汇率对进口是呈现负效应，存在J曲线效应，即人民币实际有效汇率变动不会立即影响浙江大宗农产品的进口，，而是在滞后半年开始促进进口；人民币实际有效汇率对原棉进口的影响最显著，第二是大豆的进口，而对植物油的进口效应不确定。主要原因是食用油籽与植物油能相互替代，选择进口食用油籽比选择直接进口植物油更加具有经济效益。 最后基于人民币汇率升值预期下对政府和企业提出了如何有效促进浙江大宗农产品进口贸易，借此进一步促进农产品出口贸易，加快国内农业发展的相关政策建议。政府应该鼓励进口带动出口，重点扶持大宗农产品加工企业，加大财税政策支持力度帮助企业降低生产成本。企业也应该注重自身转型升级，利用金融工具有效规避汇率风险。
[Abstract]:Zhejiang Province is located in the eastern coastal area of China, with abundant geographical resources, while the east wind of reform and opening up, the import and export trade of bulk agricultural products develops rapidly. But China's agricultural commodities have no international pricing power and are less competitive, so the impact of currency movements on agricultural commodities trade has become crucial. Since July 21, 2005, the RMB exchange rate has been adjusted to the floating exchange rate system, the RMB has continuously appreciated, which has directly affected the international trade balance. The import and export trade deficit of Zhejiang bulk agricultural products began to appear, and expanded year by year. Exchange rate changes affect the import trade of bulk agricultural products by means of changes in import prices of bulk agricultural products, changes in corporate profits and expectations of appreciation. According to economic theory, the appreciation of the RMB exchange rate will reduce the export of large agricultural products and increase imports. Zhejiang agricultural production enterprises can make use of the opportunity of RMB exchange rate appreciation to vigorously introduce agricultural products production patents and high-tech production equipment. It not only effectively promotes the strength of enterprises to promote the stable development of domestic agriculture, but also enables our country to have certain price control rights in the international market of bulk agricultural products. Based on the relevant theories of international economics, international trade and econometrics, and drawing on the relevant literature of scholars at home and abroad, this paper systematically analyzes the influence of exchange rate changes on the import trade of Zhejiang bulk agricultural products through five chapters. The data were modeled from 2005 to 2012, and the main imported varieties of soybean, raw cotton and edible vegetable oil were analyzed empirically. The empirical results show that the real effective exchange rate of RMB is a significant influence factor on the import trade of large agricultural products in Zhejiang Province, but the real effective exchange rate of RMB in the current period has a negative effect on imports, and there exists a J-curve effect. That is, the change in the real effective exchange rate of the RMB will not immediately affect the import of large agricultural products in Zhejiang, but will start to promote imports within half a year. The real effective exchange rate of the RMB has the most significant impact on the import of raw cotton, and the second is the import of soybeans. The import effect of vegetable oil is uncertain. The main reason is that edible oil seeds and vegetable oils can be replaced each other. It is more economical to choose imported edible oil seeds than to choose vegetable oils directly. Finally, based on the expectation of RMB exchange rate appreciation, the paper puts forward some policy suggestions on how to effectively promote the import trade of large agricultural products in Zhejiang Province, so as to further promote the export trade of agricultural products and accelerate the development of domestic agriculture. The government should encourage imports to promote exports, focus on supporting large agricultural products processing enterprises, and increase fiscal and tax policy support to help enterprises reduce production costs. Enterprises should also pay attention to their own transformation and upgrading, using financial instruments to effectively avoid exchange rate risk.
【学位授予单位】：宁波大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F752.61;F323.7;F832.6
本文编号：2199114
[Abstract]:Zhejiang Province is located in the eastern coastal area of China, with abundant geographical resources, while the east wind of reform and opening up, the import and export trade of bulk agricultural products develops rapidly. But China's agricultural commodities have no international pricing power and are less competitive, so the impact of currency movements on agricultural commodities trade has become crucial. Since July 21, 2005, the RMB exchange rate has been adjusted to the floating exchange rate system, the RMB has continuously appreciated, which has directly affected the international trade balance. The import and export trade deficit of Zhejiang bulk agricultural products began to appear, and expanded year by year. Exchange rate changes affect the import trade of bulk agricultural products by means of changes in import prices of bulk agricultural products, changes in corporate profits and expectations of appreciation. According to economic theory, the appreciation of the RMB exchange rate will reduce the export of large agricultural products and increase imports. Zhejiang agricultural production enterprises can make use of the opportunity of RMB exchange rate appreciation to vigorously introduce agricultural products production patents and high-tech production equipment. It not only effectively promotes the strength of enterprises to promote the stable development of domestic agriculture, but also enables our country to have certain price control rights in the international market of bulk agricultural products. Based on the relevant theories of international economics, international trade and econometrics, and drawing on the relevant literature of scholars at home and abroad, this paper systematically analyzes the influence of exchange rate changes on the import trade of Zhejiang bulk agricultural products through five chapters. The data were modeled from 2005 to 2012, and the main imported varieties of soybean, raw cotton and edible vegetable oil were analyzed empirically. The empirical results show that the real effective exchange rate of RMB is a significant influence factor on the import trade of large agricultural products in Zhejiang Province, but the real effective exchange rate of RMB in the current period has a negative effect on imports, and there exists a J-curve effect. That is, the change in the real effective exchange rate of the RMB will not immediately affect the import of large agricultural products in Zhejiang, but will start to promote imports within half a year. The real effective exchange rate of the RMB has the most significant impact on the import of raw cotton, and the second is the import of soybeans. The import effect of vegetable oil is uncertain. The main reason is that edible oil seeds and vegetable oils can be replaced each other. It is more economical to choose imported edible oil seeds than to choose vegetable oils directly. Finally, based on the expectation of RMB exchange rate appreciation, the paper puts forward some policy suggestions on how to effectively promote the import trade of large agricultural products in Zhejiang Province, so as to further promote the export trade of agricultural products and accelerate the development of domestic agriculture. The government should encourage imports to promote exports, focus on supporting large agricultural products processing enterprises, and increase fiscal and tax policy support to help enterprises reduce production costs. Enterprises should also pay attention to their own transformation and upgrading, using financial instruments to effectively avoid exchange rate risk.
【学位授予单位】：宁波大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F752.61;F323.7;F832.6
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