中国反洗钱制度效力评价研究
发布时间：2018-08-27 20:29
【摘要】：经过多年努力,中国反洗钱制度体系的发展迅速,日臻完善。但是反洗钱制度的建设效果一直存在较大的争议。由于反洗钱制度属于公共产品,难以从直观的数字感受到反洗钱制度建设对社会稳定和发展产生的效果,而执行反洗钱制度的商业机构却承担巨额的执行成本。这种隐蔽的社会效用与执行成本所造成的巨大反差最终直接影响到整个反洗钱制度发展速度和与制度效力的发挥。在整个制度体系建设过程中,国际经验借鉴起到了助推的作用,但从本质上讲,可以认为中国反洗钱制度建设仍然采用了制度移植方式。采用“移植”的方式有利于制度体系的迅速搭建,但是,反洗钱制度并不是孤立存在的,它要受到当地经济、政治、社会文化和法律体系等外部因素的影响,这些外部因素会使新移植制度在一定时期内出现适应性的问题,进而影响到制度效力的发挥。若引入国对反洗钱制度高度的重视,并采取积极的措施推进,则反洗钱制度会通过自我学习的方式进行制度演化,使反洗钱制度与原有的外部因素相适应,并通过自我强化机制促使制度不断发展与完善。然而,反洗钱制度的演化并不必然导致制度的进步,也有可能出现退化的情况,而且,反洗钱制度也具有路径依赖的特征,自我强化机制作用下会出现路径锁定现象,进而会影响到反洗钱制度在打击上游犯罪和下游犯罪中的效果。本文从制度演化理论的角度分析中国反洗钱制度的变迁及其效力的发挥。并通过实证的方法检验中国反洗钱制度的效力。全文的主要研究思路是：由于洗钱犯罪的整个过程包括上游犯罪和下游犯罪两个部分,因此需要分别考察中国反洗钱可疑交易报告制度对上游犯罪和下游犯罪的影响,检验中国反洗钱制度的效力。此外,反洗钱制度作为所有打击犯罪制度的一部分,在经过长期的制度变迁之后,反洗钱制度从理论上应该与原有制度融为一个制度体系,形成1+12的制度效果,基于这种思想,也需要对反洗钱制度建设前后对打击犯罪的效果进行对比。本文分七个章节。第一章主要介绍了研究的选题背景、基本知识、研究的主要内容和创新点。第二章主要对现有相关反洗钱制度的研究的主题、方法、结论以及最新的进展进行了综述,为研究寻找切入点和方法,体现本研究的边际价值。第三章主要将演化经济学理论引入到反洗钱制度移植、演化、路径依赖与锁定的分析。从外部制度环境与经济环境等因素分析反洗钱制度演化对于效力发挥的重要性。在进行这种分析时也考虑到反洗钱制度在演化的过程中可能会出现的路径锁定和导致路径锁定的因素,以及腐败因素对于反洗钱制度演化的影响,因为统计数据显示,在腐败较为严重的国家,反洗钱制度的执行效力具有反复性。第四章对反洗钱可疑交易报告制度的困境与效力进行了理论和数据对比分析。影响可疑交易报告制度效力的问题主要是报告数量与质量不匹配,而导致报告数量与质量的不匹配因素既包括商业机构执行的能力和意愿,同时也包括可疑交易报告本身制度设计的因素。本章分析了区分“可疑”行为与“异常”行为对可疑交易报告数量的重要影响：又从“规则为本”与“风险为本”的特点分析“可疑”与“异常”这两个规则对可疑交易报告制度的影响,以及影响其有效发挥的外部条件。此外,进一步利用面板VAR的方法检验中国可疑交易报告制度对上游犯罪(腐败)的影响。由于该方法兼顾了面板数据和时间序列数据处理的特点,不仅可表明我国目前可疑交易报告制度在打击腐败方面还不具有显著性的影响,而且发现,执行可疑交易报告制度的商业银行除了付出制度建设成本外,并没有出现制度影响银行正常业务的情况。第五章检验反洗钱制度整体上打击上游犯罪(腐败)的效果。本部分利用倍差法检验反洗钱制度建设前与建设后打击上游犯罪(腐败)的效果,并得出反洗钱制度建设前后的确对上游腐败犯罪有显著的负面影响。同时,分析了反洗钱制度存在行业和区域覆盖不完全的现象,导致反洗钱制度存在“木桶效应”。为了检验反洗钱制度“木桶效应”是否存在,本文同样利用倍差法对比制度建立前后腐败对居民储蓄的影响,因为反洗钱制度建立后,腐败收益可能由原先进入银行清洗转变为通过其他渠道清洗,非法收益间接进入银行系统,改变银行的存款结构,体现为居民储蓄的变化。结论认为“木桶效应”确实存在。第六章从可疑交易报告制度打击下游犯罪的角度检验反洗钱制度的效力。鉴于下游犯罪总体规模难以衡量,本文选取了贸易洗钱作为下游犯罪的一个样本。通过分别测算中国对15个贸易伙伴国的进口/出口记录与15个贸易伙伴国分别对中国的出口/进口记录所产生的差额(该差额被学者们称为“贸易伪报”),用贸易伪报规模衡量中国贸易洗钱的规模。并以此检验反洗钱可疑交易报告制度对贸易伪报的影响。此外,为了说明中国可疑交易报告制度也具有同样的效果,本文选取了反洗钱制度合规程度与中国相似的国家进行分析。结果表明,中国反洗钱可疑交易报告制度在打击贸易洗钱方面可以发挥作用。第七章则对全文进行了总结,并对完善中国反洗钱制度提出了对策建议。
[Abstract]:After years of hard work, China's anti-money laundering system has developed rapidly and become more and more perfect. However, the effect of the anti-money laundering system has always been controversial. The huge contrast between the concealed social utility and the cost of execution has a direct impact on the development speed and effectiveness of the whole anti-money laundering system. It is believed that China's anti-money laundering system is still constructed by means of system transplantation. The adoption of "transplantation" is conducive to the rapid establishment of the system. However, the anti-money laundering system does not exist in isolation. It is affected by external factors such as local economy, politics, social culture and legal system. These external factors will lead to the new transplantation system. If the introducing country attaches great importance to the anti-money laundering system and takes positive measures to promote it, the anti-money laundering system will evolve through self-learning so as to make the anti-money laundering system adapt to the existing external factors and strengthen itself. However, the evolution of the anti-money laundering system does not necessarily lead to the progress of the system, but may also lead to degradation. Moreover, the anti-money laundering system also has the characteristics of path dependence. Under the effect of self-strengthening mechanism, path locking will occur, which will affect the anti-money laundering system in the upper reaches of the attack. This paper analyzes the changes of China's anti-money laundering system and its effectiveness from the perspective of the theory of institutional evolution, and examines the effectiveness of China's anti-money laundering system through empirical methods. Therefore, it is necessary to examine the impact of China's anti-money laundering suspicious transaction reporting system on upstream and downstream crimes, and to test the effectiveness of China's anti-money laundering system. Based on this idea, it is also necessary to compare the effects of anti-money laundering before and after the construction of the anti-money laundering system. This paper is divided into seven chapters. The first chapter mainly introduces the background of the research, basic knowledge, main contents and innovations of the research. The second chapter mainly focuses on the existing anti-money laundering related to the anti-money laundering. In the third chapter, the theory of evolutionary economics is introduced into the analysis of the transplantation, evolution, path dependence and lock-in of anti-money laundering system. The evolution of the anti-money laundering system is important for its effectiveness. This analysis also takes into account the possible path-locking and path-locking factors in the evolution of the anti-money laundering system, as well as the impact of corruption on the evolution of the anti-money laundering system, because statistical data show that in countries where corruption is more serious, anti-money laundering system is anti-corruption. Chapter 4 makes a theoretical and data comparison and Analysis on the dilemma and effectiveness of the anti-money laundering suspicious transaction reporting system. The ability and willingness to execute suspicious transaction reports also include the factors that influence the design of the system. This chapter analyzes the important influence of distinguishing suspicious and abnormal behaviors on the number of suspicious transaction reports, and analyzes the relationship between suspicious and abnormal rules from the characteristics of "rule-based" and "risk-based". In addition, the panel VAR method is further used to examine the impact of China's suspicious transaction reporting system on upstream crime (corruption). This method takes into account the characteristics of panel data and time series data processing, and not only shows that China's current suspicious transaction reporting system is effective. The suspicion system has no significant impact on the fight against corruption, and it is found that the commercial banks that implement the suspicious transaction reporting system have not affected the normal business of the banks except paying the cost of system construction. Chapter 5 examines the effect of the anti-money laundering system on the fight against upstream crimes (corruption) as a whole. The double difference method tests the effect of cracking down on the upstream crime (corruption) before and after the construction of the anti-money laundering system, and concludes that the anti-money laundering system has a significant negative impact on the upstream corruption crime. In order to test whether the "barrel effect" of anti-money laundering system exists, this paper also uses the multiple difference method to compare the effect of corruption on household savings before and after the establishment of the anti-money laundering system, because after the establishment of the anti-money laundering system, the income of corruption may change from entering the bank cleaning to cleaning through other channels, the illegal income enters the banking system indirectly and changes the banks. Chapter 6 examines the effectiveness of the anti-money laundering system from the perspective of the suspicious transaction reporting system against downstream crime. In view of the difficulty in measuring the overall scale of downstream crime, this paper selects trade money laundering as a sample of downstream crime. The difference between China's import/export records of 15 trading partner countries and those of 15 trading partner countries (the difference is called "trade falsehood" by scholars) is calculated, and the scale of China's trade money laundering is measured by the scale of trade falsehood. In addition, in order to illustrate that China's suspicious transaction reporting system has the same effect, this paper selects countries with similar compliance to China's anti-money laundering system for analysis. The results show that China's anti-money laundering suspicious transaction reporting system can play a role in combating trade money laundering. Chapter 7 is the full text. Summarize and put forward countermeasures and suggestions to improve China's anti money laundering system.
【学位授予单位】：复旦大学
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F832.1;D922.281
本文编号：2208368
[Abstract]:After years of hard work, China's anti-money laundering system has developed rapidly and become more and more perfect. However, the effect of the anti-money laundering system has always been controversial. The huge contrast between the concealed social utility and the cost of execution has a direct impact on the development speed and effectiveness of the whole anti-money laundering system. It is believed that China's anti-money laundering system is still constructed by means of system transplantation. The adoption of "transplantation" is conducive to the rapid establishment of the system. However, the anti-money laundering system does not exist in isolation. It is affected by external factors such as local economy, politics, social culture and legal system. These external factors will lead to the new transplantation system. If the introducing country attaches great importance to the anti-money laundering system and takes positive measures to promote it, the anti-money laundering system will evolve through self-learning so as to make the anti-money laundering system adapt to the existing external factors and strengthen itself. However, the evolution of the anti-money laundering system does not necessarily lead to the progress of the system, but may also lead to degradation. Moreover, the anti-money laundering system also has the characteristics of path dependence. Under the effect of self-strengthening mechanism, path locking will occur, which will affect the anti-money laundering system in the upper reaches of the attack. This paper analyzes the changes of China's anti-money laundering system and its effectiveness from the perspective of the theory of institutional evolution, and examines the effectiveness of China's anti-money laundering system through empirical methods. Therefore, it is necessary to examine the impact of China's anti-money laundering suspicious transaction reporting system on upstream and downstream crimes, and to test the effectiveness of China's anti-money laundering system. Based on this idea, it is also necessary to compare the effects of anti-money laundering before and after the construction of the anti-money laundering system. This paper is divided into seven chapters. The first chapter mainly introduces the background of the research, basic knowledge, main contents and innovations of the research. The second chapter mainly focuses on the existing anti-money laundering related to the anti-money laundering. In the third chapter, the theory of evolutionary economics is introduced into the analysis of the transplantation, evolution, path dependence and lock-in of anti-money laundering system. The evolution of the anti-money laundering system is important for its effectiveness. This analysis also takes into account the possible path-locking and path-locking factors in the evolution of the anti-money laundering system, as well as the impact of corruption on the evolution of the anti-money laundering system, because statistical data show that in countries where corruption is more serious, anti-money laundering system is anti-corruption. Chapter 4 makes a theoretical and data comparison and Analysis on the dilemma and effectiveness of the anti-money laundering suspicious transaction reporting system. The ability and willingness to execute suspicious transaction reports also include the factors that influence the design of the system. This chapter analyzes the important influence of distinguishing suspicious and abnormal behaviors on the number of suspicious transaction reports, and analyzes the relationship between suspicious and abnormal rules from the characteristics of "rule-based" and "risk-based". In addition, the panel VAR method is further used to examine the impact of China's suspicious transaction reporting system on upstream crime (corruption). This method takes into account the characteristics of panel data and time series data processing, and not only shows that China's current suspicious transaction reporting system is effective. The suspicion system has no significant impact on the fight against corruption, and it is found that the commercial banks that implement the suspicious transaction reporting system have not affected the normal business of the banks except paying the cost of system construction. Chapter 5 examines the effect of the anti-money laundering system on the fight against upstream crimes (corruption) as a whole. The double difference method tests the effect of cracking down on the upstream crime (corruption) before and after the construction of the anti-money laundering system, and concludes that the anti-money laundering system has a significant negative impact on the upstream corruption crime. In order to test whether the "barrel effect" of anti-money laundering system exists, this paper also uses the multiple difference method to compare the effect of corruption on household savings before and after the establishment of the anti-money laundering system, because after the establishment of the anti-money laundering system, the income of corruption may change from entering the bank cleaning to cleaning through other channels, the illegal income enters the banking system indirectly and changes the banks. Chapter 6 examines the effectiveness of the anti-money laundering system from the perspective of the suspicious transaction reporting system against downstream crime. In view of the difficulty in measuring the overall scale of downstream crime, this paper selects trade money laundering as a sample of downstream crime. The difference between China's import/export records of 15 trading partner countries and those of 15 trading partner countries (the difference is called "trade falsehood" by scholars) is calculated, and the scale of China's trade money laundering is measured by the scale of trade falsehood. In addition, in order to illustrate that China's suspicious transaction reporting system has the same effect, this paper selects countries with similar compliance to China's anti-money laundering system for analysis. The results show that China's anti-money laundering suspicious transaction reporting system can play a role in combating trade money laundering. Chapter 7 is the full text. Summarize and put forward countermeasures and suggestions to improve China's anti money laundering system.
【学位授予单位】：复旦大学
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F832.1;D922.281
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