我国货币错配测度和影响因素分析

发布时间：2018-09-17 13:06

【摘要】：货币错配主要是指经济主体在融入全球经济体系时,由于资本和货物的流动使用不同的货币来计值,在汇率变动时,经济主体的资产和负债或者是收入和支出受到影响的状况。货币错配对新兴市场国家金融的稳定性和经济发展的可持续性产生一系列的负面影响,因此对货币错配的成因、度量以及控制进行深入的探讨很有必要。本文以宏观层面的货币错配存量为研究对象,采取定性与定量分析相结合的方式测度我国货币错配程度,并对我国货币错配的原因进行了研究。本文首先利用综合货币错配绝对量指标ACMAQ、修正后的实际货币错配总额指标AECM*和综合货币错配相对量指标ACMRQ度量我国1986年至2012年间的货币错配程度,以求反映出我国货币错配的真实状况,然后分三阶段讨论我国货币错配现象,最后发现我国的货币错配水平是一个由低位徘徊、盘旋上升到快速攀升的变化过程,我国货币错配由以官方为主的债权型货币错配逐步向微观层面转移的特点。其次,本文定性分析我国货币错配的影响因素,再运用协整检验方法定量分析我国货币错配的形成因素。本文实证结果认为,国家经济规模、国内金融市场发展水平、实际有效汇率、贸易开放程度、外商直接投资、中美利差是造成我国货币错配的主要因素。最后,本文在定性和定量分析的基础上提出了大力发展国内金融市场、调整对外开放策略以及完善相关制度等政策建议。
[Abstract]:Currency mismatch mainly refers to the situation in which the assets and liabilities of economic agents or income and expenditure are affected when the exchange rate changes because the flow of capital and goods is calculated in different currencies when the economic body is integrated into the global economic system. Currency mismatch has a series of negative effects on the financial stability and the sustainability of economic development in emerging market countries, so it is necessary to study the cause, measurement and control of currency mismatch. This paper takes the stock of money mismatch at the macro level as the research object, measures the degree of currency mismatch in our country by combining qualitative and quantitative analysis, and studies the causes of the mismatch of money in our country. In this paper, we first measure the degree of monetary mismatch between 1986 and 2012 in China by using the total mismatch index (AECM*) and the relative mismatch index (ACMRQ) of the real currency mismatch index (AECM*), which is revised by ACMAQ, the index of the absolute amount of currency mismatch. In order to reflect the real situation of our country's currency mismatch, and then discuss the phenomenon of our country's currency mismatch in three stages, it is found that the level of our country's currency mismatch is a changing process from low level hovering up to fast rising. The currency mismatch in China is gradually transferred from the official creditor's money mismatch to the micro level. Secondly, this paper qualitatively analyzes the influencing factors of currency mismatch in China, and then uses cointegration test to quantitatively analyze the forming factors of currency mismatch in China. The empirical results show that the scale of national economy, the development level of domestic financial market, the real effective exchange rate, the degree of trade openness, the foreign direct investment and the interest rate difference between China and the United States are the main factors that cause the mismatch of China's currency. Finally, on the basis of qualitative and quantitative analysis, this paper puts forward some policy suggestions, such as developing the domestic financial market vigorously, adjusting the strategy of opening to the outside world and perfecting the relevant system.
【学位授予单位】：南京财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F822

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