我国流动性过剩问题研究
发布时间：2018-10-09 14:18
【摘要】： 2004年以来,在人民币升值预期的带动下,我国资本项目和经常项目连年双顺差,致使我国外汇储备每年以2000亿美元的速度攀升,广义货币量也随之快速上涨。在资金面宽松的影响下,国内金融机构存款加速度增长,资产被动膨胀。这又造成信贷市场过度竞争,金融机构投资收益不断下降,放大了信用风险和利率风险。在多余资金的推动下,股票、房地产等资产价格不断飙升,我国再次出现通货膨胀现象。然而自2007年4月开始,以美国新世纪房屋贷款公司申请破产保护为开端,美国次级按揭贷款危机的爆发并逐步恶化,引发全球范围的金融动荡。受次资危机的影响,再加上中央银行连续运用从紧的货币政策调控过剩流动性,我国经济又出现资金面紧张,流动性萎缩的情况。 只要人民币存在升值预期,基础货币供应就不会停止,我国国内流动性过剩的根基就不会动摇,而暂时的流动性不足只是受次贷危机影响的短期现象,未来经济一旦复苏,中国政府还将面临着更加巨大的流动性过剩压力,流动性过剩问题将仍将是中国社会的一个长期性问题。本文运用定性分析与定量分析、规范分析和实证分析相结合的方法,对流动性过剩的理论基础及其成因的作用机理进行了研究,探讨了我国流动性过剩的现状和存在的问题,并借鉴国外经验,结合中国实际,就未来中国可能面临更大一轮的流动性过剩时,提出了一些防范和化解流动性过剩的相关政策建议。本文对流动性过剩的研究主要目的也正在于此。 本文共分为五章。第一章为绪论,对选题的背景和意义进行了分析和说明,对国内外相关研究情况按照研究时间和研究角度分类,分别进行了整理和归纳,基本能够涵盖本课题的前人研究成果。第二章的内容主要是概括了我国流动性问题现状,界定了流动性相关金融理论和我国流动性过剩的表现及对经济的影响。第三章的主要内容是分析我国流动性过剩问题形成原因。通过数据和表格,详细揭示我国此次流动性过剩成因,为化解我国流动性过剩问题提供依据。第四章的主要内容是采用定性、定量和因果分析法构建计量模型,对影响流动性过剩的因素进行检验和分析。中央银行的货币、商业银行的货币、存款和在流通市场上交易的证券是金融部门提供流动性的三种形式。本文通过选取存贷差作为因变量,用以反映流动性过剩,上证市值、外汇占款和货币供应量作为变量,反映影响流动性过剩的有代表性的因素,建立模型,分析各变量对流动性的影响程度,进一步为提出防范化解流动性剩对策提供数据支持。第五章的主要内容是根据计量模型分析得出的结论,从宏观和微观两个层面提出防范化解我国流动性过剩问题的对策建议。
[Abstract]:Since 2004, driven by the expectation of RMB appreciation, China's capital account and current account have been running double surpluses for years, which has led to the increase of China's foreign exchange reserves at the rate of $200 billion per year, and the rapid increase in the amount of broad currency. Under the influence of loose capital, domestic financial institutions have accelerated deposit growth and passive expansion of assets. This, in turn, leads to excessive competition in the credit market and declining investment returns of financial institutions, magnifying credit risk and interest rate risk. Driven by excess funds, the prices of stocks, real estate and other assets are soaring, and inflation is again appearing in our country. However, since April 2007, with the new century housing loan companies applying for bankruptcy protection, the outbreak and deterioration of the subprime mortgage crisis in the United States has caused global financial turmoil. Under the influence of the secondary capital crisis and the continuous use of tight monetary policy by the central bank to regulate excess liquidity, China's economy is facing a situation of tight capital and shrinking liquidity. As long as the RMB is expected to appreciate, the basic money supply will not stop, and the foundation of China's excess domestic liquidity will not waver. The temporary liquidity shortage is only a short-term phenomenon affected by the subprime mortgage crisis. Once the economy recovers in the future, The Chinese government will also face greater pressure on excess liquidity, which will remain a long-term problem in Chinese society. Using the methods of qualitative and quantitative analysis, normative analysis and empirical analysis, this paper studies the theoretical basis of liquidity excess and its mechanism of formation, and probes into the present situation and existing problems of liquidity excess in China. Based on the experience of foreign countries and the reality of China, this paper puts forward some relevant policy suggestions on how to prevent and resolve the excess liquidity in the future when China may face a larger round of excess liquidity. The main purpose of this paper is to study excess liquidity. This paper is divided into five chapters. The first chapter is the introduction, the background and significance of the topic are analyzed and explained, the related research situation at home and abroad is classified according to the research time and research angle, respectively, which can basically cover the previous research results of this topic. The second chapter mainly summarizes the current situation of liquidity problems in China, defines the liquidity related financial theory and the performance of excess liquidity in China and its impact on the economy. The third chapter is to analyze the causes of excess liquidity in China. By means of data and tables, the causes of excess liquidity in China are revealed in detail, which provides the basis for solving the problem of excess liquidity in China. The fourth chapter uses qualitative, quantitative and causality analysis to construct a quantitative model to test and analyze the factors affecting excess liquidity. Central bank money, commercial bank money, deposits, and securities traded in the circulation market are three forms of liquidity provided by the financial sector. By selecting the difference between deposit and loan as dependent variable to reflect excess liquidity, market value of Shanghai Stock Exchange, foreign exchange and money supply as variables, this paper sets up a model to reflect the representative factors affecting excess liquidity. The influence of each variable on liquidity is analyzed to provide data support for preventing and resolving liquidity surplus. The fifth chapter is based on the conclusions of econometric model analysis, from the macro and micro two levels to prevent and resolve the problem of excess liquidity in China.
【学位授予单位】：北京工商大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2009
【分类号】：F224;F822.2
本文编号：2259657
[Abstract]:Since 2004, driven by the expectation of RMB appreciation, China's capital account and current account have been running double surpluses for years, which has led to the increase of China's foreign exchange reserves at the rate of $200 billion per year, and the rapid increase in the amount of broad currency. Under the influence of loose capital, domestic financial institutions have accelerated deposit growth and passive expansion of assets. This, in turn, leads to excessive competition in the credit market and declining investment returns of financial institutions, magnifying credit risk and interest rate risk. Driven by excess funds, the prices of stocks, real estate and other assets are soaring, and inflation is again appearing in our country. However, since April 2007, with the new century housing loan companies applying for bankruptcy protection, the outbreak and deterioration of the subprime mortgage crisis in the United States has caused global financial turmoil. Under the influence of the secondary capital crisis and the continuous use of tight monetary policy by the central bank to regulate excess liquidity, China's economy is facing a situation of tight capital and shrinking liquidity. As long as the RMB is expected to appreciate, the basic money supply will not stop, and the foundation of China's excess domestic liquidity will not waver. The temporary liquidity shortage is only a short-term phenomenon affected by the subprime mortgage crisis. Once the economy recovers in the future, The Chinese government will also face greater pressure on excess liquidity, which will remain a long-term problem in Chinese society. Using the methods of qualitative and quantitative analysis, normative analysis and empirical analysis, this paper studies the theoretical basis of liquidity excess and its mechanism of formation, and probes into the present situation and existing problems of liquidity excess in China. Based on the experience of foreign countries and the reality of China, this paper puts forward some relevant policy suggestions on how to prevent and resolve the excess liquidity in the future when China may face a larger round of excess liquidity. The main purpose of this paper is to study excess liquidity. This paper is divided into five chapters. The first chapter is the introduction, the background and significance of the topic are analyzed and explained, the related research situation at home and abroad is classified according to the research time and research angle, respectively, which can basically cover the previous research results of this topic. The second chapter mainly summarizes the current situation of liquidity problems in China, defines the liquidity related financial theory and the performance of excess liquidity in China and its impact on the economy. The third chapter is to analyze the causes of excess liquidity in China. By means of data and tables, the causes of excess liquidity in China are revealed in detail, which provides the basis for solving the problem of excess liquidity in China. The fourth chapter uses qualitative, quantitative and causality analysis to construct a quantitative model to test and analyze the factors affecting excess liquidity. Central bank money, commercial bank money, deposits, and securities traded in the circulation market are three forms of liquidity provided by the financial sector. By selecting the difference between deposit and loan as dependent variable to reflect excess liquidity, market value of Shanghai Stock Exchange, foreign exchange and money supply as variables, this paper sets up a model to reflect the representative factors affecting excess liquidity. The influence of each variable on liquidity is analyzed to provide data support for preventing and resolving liquidity surplus. The fifth chapter is based on the conclusions of econometric model analysis, from the macro and micro two levels to prevent and resolve the problem of excess liquidity in China.
【学位授予单位】：北京工商大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2009
【分类号】：F224;F822.2
【引证文献】
相关硕士学位论文 前1条
1 刘超;中国流动性过剩治理中总量调节工具及其运用[D];天津财经大学;2011年
，本文编号：2259657
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