人民币内贬外升对我国经济发展的影响研究

发布时间：2018-10-11 15:05

【摘要】：对内价值与对外价值是一个国家货币价值的两种不同表现形式,其中货币在国内的购买力大小是对内价值的体现,而购买力大小取决于单位货币能够购买的商品和劳务的多少；本国货币与外国货币的交换比例是对外价值的体现,交换比率被称作“汇率”。购买力平价下,一国货币的对外价值可以通过该国货币的对内价值与他国货币的对内价值相折算得到。因此,货币的对内价值与对外价值通常应该保持一致,至少保持变动方向一致,即要么同时升值,要么同时贬值。然而,对人民币近几年对内价值、对外价值进行分析后发现：人民币存在对外升值的同时对内却呈现出贬值的货币现象,偏离传统理论。人民币内外价值偏离涉及汇率问题,涉及国内物价稳定问题,这些都是我国经济发展中的大问题。因此,该现象引发学者们的广泛关注。为了深入分析该现象给我国经济带来的负面影响及如何规避这些影响,文章首先展开了对该现象产生原因的分析梳理,指出经济增长、国际收支双顺差、货币供给等因素直接作用于人民币价值变化,而经济体制不均衡、内外经济发展不均衡则是人民币价值变化的深层原因。完成原因梳理后,文章展开分析了该现象对我国经济发展可能的影响,发现该现象的存在将限制我国货币政策操作空间、恶化出口型企业发展环境、削弱我国对外投资吸引力,最终影响我国经济持续增长。针对该现象产生的负面影响,文章最后从产业结构调整、扩大人民币波动幅度、扩大内需等方面着眼提出了若干建议,并在结尾指出：只要采取积极措施,最终人民币内外价值定将实现变动趋势的一致性,削弱并最终消除内贬外升现象对我国经济发展所产生的不良影响。
[Abstract]:The internal value and the external value are two different forms of the monetary value of a country, in which the purchasing power of the money in the domestic is the embodiment of the internal value, and the purchasing power depends on the number of goods and services that the unit currency can buy; The exchange ratio between domestic currency and foreign currency is the embodiment of external value, and the exchange rate is called "exchange rate". Under purchasing power parity, the external value of a country's currency can be obtained by converting the internal value of the country's currency to the internal value of another's currency. Therefore, the internal and external value of the currency should always be consistent, at least in the same direction, that is, appreciation or depreciation at the same time. However, after analyzing the internal value and external value of RMB in recent years, it is found that the RMB is devaluating at the same time, which deviates from the traditional theory. The internal and external value deviation of RMB is related to the exchange rate and the domestic price stability, which are the major problems in the economic development of our country. Therefore, this phenomenon has aroused the widespread concern of scholars. In order to deeply analyze the negative effects of this phenomenon on our country's economy and how to avoid these effects, the article first analyzes the causes of this phenomenon, and points out that economic growth, balance of payments and double surplus. Money supply and other factors directly affect the change of RMB value, while the imbalance of economic system and internal and external economic development is the deep reason for the change of RMB value. After combing the reasons, the paper analyzes the possible impact of this phenomenon on China's economic development, and finds that the existence of this phenomenon will limit the operational space of China's monetary policy, worsen the development environment of export-oriented enterprises, and weaken the attraction of China's foreign investment. The final impact on China's sustained economic growth. In view of the negative effects of this phenomenon, the article finally puts forward some suggestions from the aspects of industrial structure adjustment, increasing the fluctuation range of RMB, expanding domestic demand and so on, and points out at the end: as long as positive measures are taken, In the end, the internal and external value of RMB will realize the consistency of the changing trend, weaken and eliminate the negative influence of the phenomenon of internal devaluation and excursion on the economic development of our country.
【学位授予单位】：天津财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F832.6

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