人民币汇率变动的通胀效应研究
发布时间：2018-10-12 06:40
【摘要】： 汇率是一个非常重要的经济变量,它不仅关系到一国或地区在涉外经济中的发展和地位,而且也会通过对外贸易部门对国内的经济产生传递作用。 2005年7月21日之前,我国实行的是盯住单一美元的汇率制度。随着我国经济的不断向前发展,迫于国际市场的压力以及我国本身经济所处阶段所提出的内在要求,从2005年7月21日起,人民币汇率不再盯住单一美元,改为参考一篮子货币进行调节,形成了更富有弹性的汇率机制。“7?21”汇改以来,较高的通胀水平也一度成为人们关注的焦点。那么汇改之后,人民币汇率的波动是否促进了我国的通胀水平,如果通胀不是由人民币升值所造成的,那么又是什么因素导致了我国物价的上涨呢? 本文从汇改后的实际背景出发,以汇改之后的月度数据为样本数据,运用实证分析方法,研究了人民币实际有效汇率对于我国通胀的影响。在对物价的分析过程中,首先分析了人民币实际有效汇率对我国整体通胀的作用,之后对各分类物价的影响也作了较为深入的研究,以便初步了解汇率的通胀传递效应机制,期望能够为我国未来的汇率制度的运行和改革提供一点启示。同时,为了进一步分析通胀的形成原因,还探讨了超额货币供给、进口国外价格以及通胀预期对于我国通胀的作用。 在分析的过程中,主要采用了定性分析和定量分析相结合的研究方法,同时还运用了图表分析等方式。在运用模型进行回归之前,对变量的外生性进行了检验,同时对数据的平稳性也进行了考察,以使得回归的结果更加可信和具有实际意义。研究结论表明,人民币实际有效汇率波动对我国的通胀水平没有直接的影响,我国的通胀多是由进口国外通胀和人们对我国的通胀预期所致,这可能是由于人民币汇率波动幅度不明显,进口国外通胀和人们对我国通胀预期的作用过于明显所致。
[Abstract]:Exchange rate is a very important economic variable, it is not only related to the development and status of a country or region in the foreign economy. Before July 21, 2005, China implemented a single dollar peg exchange rate system. With the continuous development of China's economy, under the pressure of the international market and the inherent requirements of the stage of our own economy, from July 21, 2005, the RMB exchange rate will no longer be pegged to a single dollar. A more flexible exchange rate mechanism has been formed by adjusting against a basket of currencies. Since the reform of the "7x21" exchange rate, higher inflation has also been the focus of attention for a time. So after the exchange rate reform, does the fluctuation of RMB exchange rate promote the inflation level of our country, if inflation is not caused by RMB appreciation, then what factors cause the price rise of our country? Based on the actual background after the exchange rate reform and taking the monthly data of the exchange rate reform as the sample data, this paper studies the effect of the real effective exchange rate of RMB on China's inflation by using the empirical analysis method. In the process of price analysis, this paper first analyzes the effect of RMB real effective exchange rate on China's overall inflation, and then makes a more in-depth study on the effect of various categories of prices, in order to understand the mechanism of inflation transmission effect of exchange rate. It is expected to provide some enlightenment for the future operation and reform of China's exchange rate system. At the same time, in order to further analyze the causes of inflation, the paper also discusses the role of excess money supply, import foreign prices and inflation expectations on China's inflation. In the process of analysis, the research method of qualitative analysis and quantitative analysis is mainly used, and the method of chart analysis is also used. In order to make the regression results more reliable and practical, the paper tests the extrapolation of variables and the stability of the data before using the model. The results show that the fluctuation of the real effective exchange rate of RMB has no direct effect on the inflation level of our country. The inflation of our country is mostly caused by the inflation of imported countries and the inflation expectations of people in China. This may be due to the low volatility of the RMB exchange rate, the excessive role of imported foreign inflation and people's expectations of inflation in China.
【学位授予单位】：华中科技大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2009
【分类号】：F822.5;F831.52;F224
本文编号：2265159
[Abstract]:Exchange rate is a very important economic variable, it is not only related to the development and status of a country or region in the foreign economy. Before July 21, 2005, China implemented a single dollar peg exchange rate system. With the continuous development of China's economy, under the pressure of the international market and the inherent requirements of the stage of our own economy, from July 21, 2005, the RMB exchange rate will no longer be pegged to a single dollar. A more flexible exchange rate mechanism has been formed by adjusting against a basket of currencies. Since the reform of the "7x21" exchange rate, higher inflation has also been the focus of attention for a time. So after the exchange rate reform, does the fluctuation of RMB exchange rate promote the inflation level of our country, if inflation is not caused by RMB appreciation, then what factors cause the price rise of our country? Based on the actual background after the exchange rate reform and taking the monthly data of the exchange rate reform as the sample data, this paper studies the effect of the real effective exchange rate of RMB on China's inflation by using the empirical analysis method. In the process of price analysis, this paper first analyzes the effect of RMB real effective exchange rate on China's overall inflation, and then makes a more in-depth study on the effect of various categories of prices, in order to understand the mechanism of inflation transmission effect of exchange rate. It is expected to provide some enlightenment for the future operation and reform of China's exchange rate system. At the same time, in order to further analyze the causes of inflation, the paper also discusses the role of excess money supply, import foreign prices and inflation expectations on China's inflation. In the process of analysis, the research method of qualitative analysis and quantitative analysis is mainly used, and the method of chart analysis is also used. In order to make the regression results more reliable and practical, the paper tests the extrapolation of variables and the stability of the data before using the model. The results show that the fluctuation of the real effective exchange rate of RMB has no direct effect on the inflation level of our country. The inflation of our country is mostly caused by the inflation of imported countries and the inflation expectations of people in China. This may be due to the low volatility of the RMB exchange rate, the excessive role of imported foreign inflation and people's expectations of inflation in China.
【学位授予单位】：华中科技大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2009
【分类号】：F822.5;F831.52;F224
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