基于MS模型的中国FDI变化路径的动态特征研究

发布时间：2018-10-14 10:50

【摘要】：通过建立两状态的马尔科夫区制转换(MS)模型,刻画了1997.01—2010.11期间中国FDI变化路径的动态特征。实证分析结果表明,在近10多年的发展历程中,中国FDI扩张状态的平均持续期约为2.902个月,FDI收缩状态平均持续期约为3.6832个月,而且FDI的扩张与收缩的交替频率较高,FDI经历了短暂的扩张(收缩)状态之后又迅速进入收缩(扩张)状态。中国FDI变化路径的状态交替特征可能受到全球FDI的流动趋势、中国的知识产权保护力度以及引资政策的影响。
[Abstract]:By establishing a two-state Markov region transition (MS) model, the dynamic characteristics of the path of FDI variation in China during 1997.01-2010.11 are described. The results of empirical analysis show that the average duration of FDI expansion in China is about 2.902 months, and the average duration of FDI contraction is about 3.6832 months in the last 10 years. Moreover, the alternating frequency of expansion and contraction of FDI is higher. FDI experienced a brief state of expansion (contraction) and then rapidly entered the state of contraction (expansion). The state alternation of China's FDI path may be influenced by the global FDI flow trend, China's intellectual property rights protection and foreign investment policies.
【作者单位】：山西大学数学科学学院;山西大学管理学院;
【基金】：教育部人文社会科学重点研究基地2006年度重大项目(06JJD79004)
【分类号】：F832.6;F224

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