人民币汇率与我国进出口贸易关系实证研究

发布时间：2018-10-15 11:48

【摘要】：由于我国经济的对外开放度和贸易依存度越来越高,人民币作为国内外贸易的媒介，其汇率的变动将对我国进出口贸易产生重要的影响。此次美国次贷危机引起的全球金融危机使得全球经济又一次陷入了大萧条之中，我国的对外贸易状况也因此受到影响。持续的巨额贸易顺差以及外汇储备的快速增长使得人民币面临巨大的升值压力。国际市场需求不振、全球性通货膨胀蔓延、贸易保护主义再度抬头等,也无疑使我国外贸发展面临的外围环境将更加复杂、恶劣。因此,在当前经济环境下,研究人民币实际有效汇率对我国进出口贸易差额以及结构的影响就具有非常重要的现实意义。本文分别采用2005年8月-2013年6月的月度数据以及1980年到2012年的年度数据为样本,将人民币实际有效汇率变动对我国进出口贸易的影响进行了研究。为了增强研究结论的针对性和说服力,在实证分析时,本文使用了ADF检验、Johansen协整检验、Granger因果关系检验的方法,分别将人民币实际有效汇率对贸易收支和贸易结构的影响做了相关的研究。通过研究得出的结论主要有：（1）人民币实际有效汇率与进出口总额、出口额之间存在一个协整关系，人民币实际有效汇率与进口额之间没有协整关系；人民币实际有效汇率和进出口贸易额互为格兰杰原因。（2）人民币实际有效汇率与进口结构之间不存在协整关系，人民币实际有效汇率与出口结构之间也不存在协整关系。工业制成品贸易结构的变动是人民币实际有效汇率变动的格兰杰原因。实证分析说明人民币升值对我国进出口贸易没有明显影响。因此，，我们不能认为人民币升值就是解决我国对外贸易问题的唯一对策,也要通过其他有效措施来改善我国的贸易状况，以此保证我国进出口贸易的均衡发展。本文还分析了人民币实际有效汇率对我国进出口贸易影响的评价,并结合上述分析，提出了促进我国进出口贸易良好发展的对策与建议。此外，美国已经计划逐渐退出QE，这将对人民币实际汇率带来怎样的影响，有待继续研究。
[Abstract]:As China's economy is opening to the outside world and the degree of dependence on trade is becoming higher and higher, the change of exchange rate of RMB, as the medium of domestic and foreign trade, will have an important impact on China's import and export trade. The global financial crisis caused by the American subprime mortgage crisis once again plunged the global economy into the Great Depression, and the foreign trade situation of our country was also affected as a result. The sustained huge trade surplus and the rapid growth of foreign exchange reserves put the RMB under great pressure of appreciation. The sluggish demand of international market, the spread of global inflation and the resurgence of trade protectionism will undoubtedly make the external environment for the development of China's foreign trade more complex and abominable. Therefore, in the current economic environment, it is of great practical significance to study the impact of the real effective exchange rate of RMB on the balance and structure of China's import and export trade. Based on the monthly data from August 2005 to June 2013 and the annual data from 1980 to 2012, this paper studies the effect of the real effective exchange rate of RMB on China's import and export trade. In order to enhance the pertinence and persuasiveness of the conclusions, we use ADF test, Johansen cointegration test and Granger causality test in the empirical analysis. The effects of RMB real effective exchange rate on trade balance and trade structure are studied respectively. The main conclusions are as follows: (1) there is a cointegration relationship between the real effective exchange rate of RMB and the total amount of imports and exports, but there is no cointegration relationship between the real effective exchange rate of RMB and the amount of imports; (2) there is no cointegration relationship between the real effective exchange rate of RMB and the import structure, and there is no cointegration relationship between the real effective exchange rate of RMB and the export structure. The change of trade structure of manufactured goods is the Granger reason for the change of RMB real effective exchange rate. The empirical analysis shows that RMB appreciation has no obvious influence on China's import and export trade. Therefore, we can not think that the appreciation of RMB is the only countermeasure to solve the foreign trade problem of our country, and we should improve the trade situation of our country through other effective measures so as to ensure the balanced development of our country's import and export trade. This paper also analyzes the impact of RMB real effective exchange rate on China's import and export trade, and puts forward some countermeasures and suggestions to promote the good development of China's import and export trade. In addition, the impact of the gradual withdrawal of the United States from QE, on the real exchange rate of the yuan remains to be further studied.
【学位授予单位】：山西财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F832.6;F752.6

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