资本周期与大宗商品价格
发布时间：2018-10-19 14:49
【摘要】：资本周期也称朱格拉周期,主要是资本支出波动引起的经济波动。随着经济周期四个阶段的演变,大宗商品价格也呈现周期性波动。根据美国的经济周期和大宗商品的实证研究可以发现,国际大宗商品的周期性波动较为明显,在过热、滞胀阶段,能源类大宗商品和工业品的走势出现较为明显的分化,即能源类的收益明显优于工业品。根据中国资本周期和国内大宗商品的波动研究,发现国内大宗商品沪铜和沪胶的周期性较为明显,而大豆的周期性不明显。
[Abstract]:The capital cycle is also called the Zhuguela cycle, which is mainly caused by the fluctuation of capital expenditure. With the evolution of the four stages of the economic cycle, commodity prices also show cyclical fluctuations. According to the empirical study of the American economic cycle and commodities, we can find that the cyclical fluctuations of international commodities are more obvious, and in the stage of overheating and stagflation, the trend of energy commodities and industrial products appears more obvious differentiation. That is, the income of the energy category is obviously better than the industrial products. Based on the study of the fluctuation of Chinese capital cycle and domestic commodities, it is found that the periodicity of Shanghai copper and Shanghai glue is obvious, but the periodicity of soybean is not obvious.
【作者单位】： 新湖期货研究所;
【分类号】：F831;F713.35;F224
本文编号：2281459
[Abstract]:The capital cycle is also called the Zhuguela cycle, which is mainly caused by the fluctuation of capital expenditure. With the evolution of the four stages of the economic cycle, commodity prices also show cyclical fluctuations. According to the empirical study of the American economic cycle and commodities, we can find that the cyclical fluctuations of international commodities are more obvious, and in the stage of overheating and stagflation, the trend of energy commodities and industrial products appears more obvious differentiation. That is, the income of the energy category is obviously better than the industrial products. Based on the study of the fluctuation of Chinese capital cycle and domestic commodities, it is found that the periodicity of Shanghai copper and Shanghai glue is obvious, but the periodicity of soybean is not obvious.
【作者单位】： 新湖期货研究所;
【分类号】：F831;F713.35;F224
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