亚洲主要发展中国家外汇储备持有动因研究
发布时间：2018-11-02 09:49
【摘要】：外汇储备不仅是衡量一国经济实力和金融实力的重要指标之一,而且它也是国际金融领域的重要研究对象。外汇储备在国家金融制度中起着“缓冲器”的作用,能够调节国际收支、保持汇率稳定、维护本币国际信誉、增强抗风险波动能力。20世纪90年代后,亚洲主要发展中国家外汇储备迅速增长,外汇储备存量以及增长速度在全球范围内都处于较高水平。数据显示,截止2012年末,全球外汇储备达到109360亿美元,亚洲主要发展中国家的外汇储备超过4万亿美元,占全球的60%以上。亚洲发展中国家的外汇储备迅速增长的势态一直为学术界关注,尤其在97年亚洲金融危机后,亚洲主要发展中国家的外汇储备增速出现明显变化,增长率出现爆发式增长。学术界对此情况进行了深入的研究并且也有了许多解释。其中一个重要观点认为,20世纪90年代后频发的金融危机导致各国预防性动机增强是外汇储备增加的主要原因。直观上看,亚洲主要发展中国家外汇储备的爆发式增长主要集中在金融危机之后,因此我们可以认为预防性动机在其中扮演了重要角色。随着亚洲发展中国家经济的不断发展,其世界引擎的经济地位越来越重要,我们应该分析其外汇储备的增长趋势及原因,进而找出其背后深层次的持有动因变化。本文主要利用外汇储备持有动机理论考察了亚洲发展中各国的外汇储备持有的交易性动机和预防性动机,在此基础上建立预防性动机的分析框架,分析了预防性动机持有储备行为在金融危机冲击下的变化。本文还借鉴PPP理论,引入汇率偏离度变量用以考察亚洲主要发展中国家的新重商主义动机。通过对中国、印度、印度尼西亚、马来西亚、泰国、柬埔寨、越南、老挝、哈萨克斯坦等10国1995年至2012年的面板数据研究,我们发现在亚洲主要发展中国家外汇储备持有动因中,交易性动机始终存在,且与外汇储备有正向关系。预防性动机对外汇储备有重要影响,且现代预防性动机理论占据主导作用,出口收入波动在亚洲发展中国家中与外汇储备的联系并不明显。在庞大人口带来的沉重就业压力下,亚洲主要发展中国家确实存一定新重商主义动机。
[Abstract]:Foreign exchange reserve is not only an important index to measure a country's economic and financial strength, but also an important research object in the field of international finance. Foreign exchange reserves act as a "buffer" in the national financial system. They can regulate the balance of payments, maintain exchange rate stability, maintain the international reputation of their currencies, and enhance their ability to resist risk fluctuations. The foreign exchange reserves of major developing countries in Asia are growing rapidly, and the stock of foreign exchange reserves and the growth rate of foreign exchange reserves are all at a high level around the world. Global foreign exchange reserves stood at $10.936 trillion at the end of 2012, with Asia's leading developing countries holding more than $4 trillion, or more than 60 percent of the world's total, according to data. The rapid growth of foreign exchange reserves in developing countries in Asia has always been concerned by the academic circles. Especially after the Asian financial crisis in 1997, the growth rate of foreign exchange reserves of major developing countries in Asia has changed obviously, and the growth rate of foreign exchange reserves has exploded. The academic circle has carried on the thorough research to this situation and also has many explanations. One of the important arguments is that the increasing precautionary motivation caused by frequent financial crises after the 1990s is the main reason for the increase of foreign exchange reserves. Intuitively, the explosive growth of foreign exchange reserves in major developing countries in Asia is mainly after the financial crisis, so we can assume that precautionary motivation plays an important role in it. With the economic development of developing countries in Asia, the economic status of its world engine is becoming more and more important. We should analyze the growth trend and reasons of its foreign exchange reserves, and then find out the underlying changes in the driving forces of its holding. Based on the theory of foreign exchange reserve holding motivation, this paper examines the transaction motivation and precautionary motivation of foreign exchange reserve holding in developing countries in Asia, and then establishes the analytical framework of precautionary motivation. This paper analyzes the change of precautionary motive reserve holding behavior under the impact of financial crisis. This paper also uses PPP theory for reference and introduces exchange rate deviation variables to investigate the new mercantilist motivation of major developing countries in Asia. Through panel data from 1995 to 2012 in 10 countries, including China, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Cambodia, Vietnam, Laos, Kazakhstan, etc., We find that in the main developing countries in Asia, the motive of foreign exchange reserve holding exists all the time and has a positive relationship with the foreign exchange reserve. Precautionary motivation plays an important role in foreign exchange reserves, and modern precautionary motivation theory plays a dominant role. The relationship between export earnings fluctuations and foreign exchange reserves in developing countries in Asia is not obvious. Under the heavy pressure of employment from a large population, major developing countries in Asia do have some new mercantilist motives.
【学位授予单位】：复旦大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F832.6
本文编号：2305679
[Abstract]:Foreign exchange reserve is not only an important index to measure a country's economic and financial strength, but also an important research object in the field of international finance. Foreign exchange reserves act as a "buffer" in the national financial system. They can regulate the balance of payments, maintain exchange rate stability, maintain the international reputation of their currencies, and enhance their ability to resist risk fluctuations. The foreign exchange reserves of major developing countries in Asia are growing rapidly, and the stock of foreign exchange reserves and the growth rate of foreign exchange reserves are all at a high level around the world. Global foreign exchange reserves stood at $10.936 trillion at the end of 2012, with Asia's leading developing countries holding more than $4 trillion, or more than 60 percent of the world's total, according to data. The rapid growth of foreign exchange reserves in developing countries in Asia has always been concerned by the academic circles. Especially after the Asian financial crisis in 1997, the growth rate of foreign exchange reserves of major developing countries in Asia has changed obviously, and the growth rate of foreign exchange reserves has exploded. The academic circle has carried on the thorough research to this situation and also has many explanations. One of the important arguments is that the increasing precautionary motivation caused by frequent financial crises after the 1990s is the main reason for the increase of foreign exchange reserves. Intuitively, the explosive growth of foreign exchange reserves in major developing countries in Asia is mainly after the financial crisis, so we can assume that precautionary motivation plays an important role in it. With the economic development of developing countries in Asia, the economic status of its world engine is becoming more and more important. We should analyze the growth trend and reasons of its foreign exchange reserves, and then find out the underlying changes in the driving forces of its holding. Based on the theory of foreign exchange reserve holding motivation, this paper examines the transaction motivation and precautionary motivation of foreign exchange reserve holding in developing countries in Asia, and then establishes the analytical framework of precautionary motivation. This paper analyzes the change of precautionary motive reserve holding behavior under the impact of financial crisis. This paper also uses PPP theory for reference and introduces exchange rate deviation variables to investigate the new mercantilist motivation of major developing countries in Asia. Through panel data from 1995 to 2012 in 10 countries, including China, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Cambodia, Vietnam, Laos, Kazakhstan, etc., We find that in the main developing countries in Asia, the motive of foreign exchange reserve holding exists all the time and has a positive relationship with the foreign exchange reserve. Precautionary motivation plays an important role in foreign exchange reserves, and modern precautionary motivation theory plays a dominant role. The relationship between export earnings fluctuations and foreign exchange reserves in developing countries in Asia is not obvious. Under the heavy pressure of employment from a large population, major developing countries in Asia do have some new mercantilist motives.
【学位授予单位】：复旦大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F832.6
【共引文献】
相关期刊论文 前2条
1 陆路;;对我国外汇储备结构优化的思考[J];中国商界(下半月);2009年06期
2 宋军;毛伟;;多资产的外汇储备币种配置[J];系统工程理论与实践;2014年03期
相关博士学位论文 前1条
1 沈姗姗;中国外汇储备结构优化研究[D];华中科技大学;2010年
相关硕士学位论文 前10条
1 姜娟;中国外汇储备规模的适度性研究[D];暨南大学;2011年
2 李栋;我国国际储备结构优化分析[D];山东大学;2011年
3 寇永金;中国外汇储备币种结构优化研究[D];陕西师范大学;2011年
4 方琳;中国外汇储备货币结构管理问题研究[D];湖南大学;2006年
5 罗花;中国外汇储备适度规模的实证分析[D];中南大学;2007年
6 李权;我国外汇储备增长的宏观经济效应研究[D];重庆大学;2007年
7 王大生;基于MMVD模型的我国美元外汇储备资产结构调整研究[D];湖南大学;2007年
8 郎维维;中国外汇储备结构优化研究[D];天津财经大学;2008年
9 王丽萍;我国外汇储备适度规模研究[D];河南大学;2008年
10 李亚丽;我国外汇储备适度规模的实证分析[D];中南大学;2008年
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