构建依托上海自由贸易试验区的人民币离岸金融中心

发布时间：2018-11-07 10:44

【摘要】：离岸金融中心是全球金融市场重要的组成部分。在世界经济金融自由化、全球化的背景下,离岸金融中心成为各国（地区）对国际金融资源争夺博弈的关键环节,发展中国家应该抓住这一历史趋势实现金融业的跨越式发展。本文从完善人民币回流机制、推动人民币国际化发展战略、助力我国金融业发挥后发优势几个发展的、战略的角度分析了我国建立人民币离岸金融中心的必要性。梳理了我国离岸业务的发展概况,以及香港人民币市场的迅速成长情况,肯定了发展的阶段性成绩,同时指出在国内离岸业务发展较为缓慢,而香港人民币市场的发展存在回流机制的阻碍,因此上海自由贸易试验区成立后承担了建立在岸的人民币离岸金融中心的历史使命。进一步地,本文从经济转型、金融改革的大背景、人民币国际结算地位、外汇储备保值压力、上海及其腹地的实体经济实力等多个方面,论证了上海已具备发展人民币离岸金融中心的条件与基础。针对人民币离岸金融中心运行模式问题,本文对国际上三种形态的离岸金融中心的典型代表进行了研究对比,包括内外混合型离岸金融中心的代表伦敦、内外分离型的代表新加坡和东京、避税港型离岸金融中心的代表加勒比海地区。结合我国的经济特征、金融体系的开放程度、市场化的监管水平等因素,提出现阶段上海建立离岸金融中心应选择内外分离型的发展模式,待经济发展和市场建设进一步成熟到一定阶段,可考虑由内外严格分离向有计划的、单向的、适度的内外渗透型模式转型。上海人民币离岸金融中心建设伊始,就应该对其伴随的风险有充分考虑,并据此制定风险监管方案。本文首先从定性的角度分析了可能的风险及其传导机制,主要包括：货币错配和短期资本流动带来的汇率风险、输入性通胀和通缩带来的利率风险、信贷扩张带来的资产泡沫风险等等。然后,着重利用成熟离岸金融中心新加坡三阶段的发展数据,构建向量自回归(VAR)模型,实证分析离岸金融资产规模对于货币主权国金融体系的影响,为上海发展离岸金融中心得分阶段风险监管思路提供了参考。在对风险定性和定量分析的基础上,本文从离岸市场完善法律法规体系、做好有关部门外部监管、提升金融机构内部控制水平、关注重点监管指标几方面,对离岸市场建设过程中的风险监管工作提出了建议。最后,针对上海和香港在建立人民币离岸金融中心问题上的各自的定位、发展方向、互相之间的竞合关系进行了研究,并对两地在人民币离岸业务和监管方面的合作提供了运作思路。
[Abstract]:Offshore financial center is an important part of global financial market. Under the background of the world economic and financial liberalization and globalization, offshore financial center has become the key link for countries (regions) to compete for international financial resources. Developing countries should seize this historical trend to realize the great-leap-forward development of the financial industry. This paper analyzes the necessity of establishing RMB offshore financial center in China from the perspective of perfecting RMB reflux mechanism, promoting RMB internationalization development strategy, and helping our financial industry to play its late-development advantage. Combing the general situation of offshore business development in China and the rapid growth of the renminbi market in Hong Kong, this paper affirms the stage achievements of the development, and points out that offshore business is developing slowly in China. The development of the RMB market in Hong Kong is hindered by the backflow mechanism, so the Shanghai Free Trade Test Zone has assumed the historical mission of establishing an offshore RMB financial center after the establishment of the Shanghai Free Trade Test Zone. Further, this article from the economic transformation, the financial reform background, the renminbi international settlement status, the foreign exchange reserve preservation pressure, Shanghai and its hinterland real economy strength and so on many aspects, It demonstrates that Shanghai already has the condition and foundation to develop RMB offshore financial center. In view of the operation mode of RMB offshore financial center, this paper studies and compares the typical representatives of three kinds of offshore financial center in the world, including the representative of internal and external mixed offshore financial center, It represents Singapore and Tokyo, and the offshore financial center of tax havens represents the Caribbean. Considering the economic characteristics of our country, the degree of openness of the financial system, the level of market-oriented supervision and other factors, this paper puts forward that Shanghai should choose the internal and external development model to establish offshore financial center at the present stage. When the economic development and market construction mature to a certain stage, we can consider the transformation from internal and external strict separation to a planned, one-way, moderate internal and external infiltration model. At the beginning of the construction of Shanghai RMB offshore financial center, the risks associated with it should be fully considered, and the risk supervision scheme should be formulated accordingly. This paper first analyzes the possible risks and their transmission mechanism from a qualitative point of view, mainly including: currency mismatch and short-term capital flows caused by exchange rate risk, import inflation and deflation caused by interest rate risks. Credit expansion brings asset bubble risk and so on. Then, based on the three-stage development data of Singapore, a vector autoregressive (VAR) model is constructed to analyze the impact of offshore financial assets on the financial system of monetary sovereign countries. It provides a reference for the risk supervision in the score stage of the development of offshore financial center in Shanghai. On the basis of qualitative and quantitative analysis of risks, this paper improves the system of laws and regulations from the offshore market, does well the external supervision of relevant departments, promotes the level of internal control of financial institutions, and pays close attention to several aspects of key supervision indicators. Some suggestions on risk supervision in the process of offshore market construction are put forward. Finally, according to the position, direction of development and the relationship of competition and cooperation between Shanghai and Hong Kong on the establishment of RMB offshore financial center, And the two places in the renminbi offshore business and regulatory cooperation to provide operational ideas.
【学位授予单位】：复旦大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F832.6

【共引文献】