重庆市银行业发展与经济增长关系实证研究

发布时间：2018-11-18 10:14

【摘要】：改革开放之后，在全球经济一体化背景下，重庆市的经济迅速增长，实行各种有效的政策来推动整个重庆市的经济发展，促进经济结构体改革。同时积极发展银行业，优化银行业结构，发挥金融作为市场经济的核心作用。如何将重庆市发展为西部经济与金融的首要城市，研究银行业发展与经济增长之间的相互关系能更好的推动重庆市的经济发展。本文在基于对国内外学者对金融发展与经济增长理论研究的基础上，结合二者关系的实证研究，选取重庆市1995--2011年的金融、经济数据，运用计量经济学中的协整检验、格兰杰因果检验和VAR模型的脉冲响应函数和预测方差分解等技术，详细阐述了重庆市银行业结构、规模、效率的发展与经济增长之间的关系。本文通过五个章节详细论述银行业发展及经济增长的关系。首先在第一章介绍了银行业发展与经济增长介绍写作的背景及意义，关于银行业发展与经济增长的国内外研究动态，，论文的思路、方法、框架以及创新点与不足。第二章为理论介绍，对本文所用到的理论进行介绍。分别阐述了经济增长理论、金融发展理论以及金融发展与经济增长相互作用的传导机制。第三章为现状介绍，本章节将详细介绍重庆市银行业发展历程、金融发展历程，然后综合分析银行业发展与经济增长的相关关系。重庆市银行业和经济都以强劲稳健的步伐高速发展，二者相互作用相互影响。第四部分是实证分析，也是全文的重点部分，实证结果表明重庆市银行业发展和经济增长间具有一个长期稳定的关系，银行业发展规模对经济增长的促进作用比较显著，而银行业效率和银行业集中度对经济增长的解释力度都不显著。第五章是结论与政策建议。运用以上计量经济模型的方法详细论证了银行效率、规模的发展和重庆市经济增长之间有正相关的关系，对重庆市的银行业发展与经济增长存在的一些问题提出了一些新的看法，同时给予政府一些相关的经济政策。
[Abstract]:After the reform and opening up, under the background of global economic integration, the economy of Chongqing has been growing rapidly, and various effective policies have been implemented to promote the economic development of the whole city and to promote the reform of the economic structure. At the same time, actively develop the banking industry, optimize the banking structure, and give play to the central role of finance as a market economy. How to develop Chongqing into the primary city of western economy and finance, and study the relationship between banking development and economic growth can promote the economic development of Chongqing better. Based on the theoretical research on financial development and economic growth of domestic and foreign scholars and the empirical research on the relationship between them, this paper selects the financial and economic data of Chongqing from 1995 to 2011, and applies the co-integration test in econometrics. Granger causality test, impulse response function of VAR model and prediction variance decomposition are used to explain the relationship between the development of banking structure, scale, efficiency and economic growth in Chongqing in detail. This paper discusses the relationship between banking development and economic growth in detail through five chapters. The first chapter introduces the background and significance of the introduction of banking development and economic growth, the domestic and foreign research trends of banking development and economic growth, the ideas, methods, framework, innovation points and shortcomings of the paper. The second chapter is the introduction of the theory used in this paper. The economic growth theory, the financial development theory and the transmission mechanism of the interaction between financial development and economic growth are expounded respectively. The third chapter is the introduction of the current situation, this chapter will introduce the development of Chongqing banking industry, the financial development process in detail, and then comprehensively analyze the relationship between banking development and economic growth. Chongqing's banking and economy are developing at a strong and steady pace, and they interact with each other. The fourth part is the empirical analysis, which is also the key part of the full text. The empirical results show that there is a long-term and stable relationship between the development of Chongqing banking industry and economic growth, and the scale of banking development plays a significant role in promoting economic growth. The efficiency of banking industry and banking concentration of economic growth are not significantly explained. The fifth chapter is the conclusion and policy suggestion. Using the above econometric model, the paper demonstrates in detail that there is a positive correlation between the efficiency of banks, the development of scale and the economic growth of Chongqing. This paper puts forward some new views on the problems existing in the development of banking industry and economic growth in Chongqing, and gives some relevant economic policies to the government at the same time.
【学位授予单位】：重庆师范大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F832.7;F127

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