基于前景理论的我国中小企业偿债意愿研究
发布时间：2018-11-27 08:42
【摘要】：近年来,我国中小企业数量在不断蓬勃发展,其在国民经济和社会发展中的战略作用不容忽视。然而由于中小企业自身的特点约束、借贷双方的信息不对称,融资难问题已经成为困扰中小企业发展壮大的瓶颈。中小企业融资难的背后存在着什么原因?融资难问题与中小企业信用风险之间具有什么联系?而在中小企业信用风险中,除了评价其偿债能力外,了解其偿债意愿也至关重要。本文从中小企业融资难开始层层抽丝剥茧,首先在文献回顾的基础上指出了其根本原因来自于信息不对称,信息不对称意味着对中小企业信用风险的无法识别或不够了解,然而现有对中小企业信用风险的评价都主要集中在对其偿债能力的考察,而鲜有对偿债意愿的探究;其次,本文关注于中小企业偿债意愿的问题,分析了其意愿薄弱的原因,并论述了目前对于中小企业偿债意愿的研究方法。接着,本文考虑决策者不完全理性和研究方法的便捷直观,引入前景理论和多智能体仿真方法,剖析了基于前景理论下影响中小企业偿债意愿的三大因素,并构建了多智能体仿真模型。最后,关系型贷款是一类有效缓解中小企业融资难的模式,本文将中小企业偿债意愿嵌入关系型贷款,分析了偿债意愿与关系型贷款的作用。研究发现,偿债意愿并非都随着变量的变化完全呈线性变化。为更有效地识别和提升中小企业的偿债意愿,银行等债权方不仅应该了解中小企业的投资期望利润率,还应该引导中小企业追逐合理的利润目标;同时,在设定合理的贷款利率的前提下,加大违约的惩戒力度,提高其违约成本;另外,应该了解并重视其所在中小企业圈内整体的偿债情况。除此外,分析认为对中小企业偿债意愿的识别有助于银企实现关系型贷款,而关系型贷款模式也在一定程度上能够提高中小企业的偿债意愿,二者相得益彰。本文拟通过对中小企业融资难问题及其偿债意愿的探究,期望为债权方提供识别中小企业偿债意愿的一类方法,为缓解中小企业融资难问题给出进一步的思考。
[Abstract]:In recent years, the number of small and medium-sized enterprises in China is booming, its strategic role in the national economy and social development can not be ignored. However, due to the constraints of SMEs' own characteristics and the asymmetric information between the lenders and borrowers, the difficulty of financing has become the bottleneck that puzzles the development and growth of SMEs. What are the reasons behind the financing difficulties of SMEs? What is the connection between the financing problem and the credit risk of SMEs? In the credit risk of small and medium-sized enterprises, it is also important to know their willingness to pay debt in addition to evaluating their solvency. This paper begins with the difficulty of financing for small and medium-sized enterprises. Firstly, based on the review of the literature, the author points out that the fundamental reason is information asymmetry, which means that the credit risk of small and medium-sized enterprises can not be identified or understood. However, the existing evaluation of the credit risk of small and medium-sized enterprises is mainly focused on the investigation of their solvency, but rarely on the willingness to repay debt. Secondly, this paper focuses on the problem of SMEs' willingness to repay debt, analyzes the reasons for their weak willingness, and discusses the current research methods of SMEs' willingness to repay debt. Then, considering the incomplete rationality of decision-makers and the convenient and intuitive research methods, this paper introduces the foreground theory and multi-agent simulation method, and analyzes the three factors that affect the willingness of SMEs to repay debt based on the prospect theory. The simulation model of multi-agent is constructed. Finally, relational loan is a kind of effective model to alleviate the financing difficulties of small and medium-sized enterprises. This paper embed the willingness to repay debt of small and medium-sized enterprises into relational loans, and analyzed the role of willingness to repay debt and relational loans. It is found that the willingness to repay debt is not entirely linear with the change of variables. In order to identify and enhance the willingness of SMEs to repay debt more effectively, banks and other creditors should not only understand the expected profit margin of SMEs, but also guide them to pursue reasonable profit targets. At the same time, under the premise of setting a reasonable loan interest rate, we should increase the punishment of default and increase the cost of default. In addition, we should understand and attach importance to the whole debt service situation in the circle of small and medium-sized enterprises. In addition, it is concluded that the identification of SMEs' willingness to repay debt is helpful for the realization of relational loans, and the relational loan model can improve the willingness of SMEs to repay debt to a certain extent, which complement each other. This paper aims to provide a method to identify the willingness of small and medium-sized enterprises to repay debt by exploring the problem of financing difficulties and their willingness to repay debt of small and medium-sized enterprises, and to provide further consideration for alleviating the problem of financing difficulties of small and medium-sized enterprises.
【学位授予单位】：电子科技大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F832.4;F276.3
本文编号：2360095
[Abstract]:In recent years, the number of small and medium-sized enterprises in China is booming, its strategic role in the national economy and social development can not be ignored. However, due to the constraints of SMEs' own characteristics and the asymmetric information between the lenders and borrowers, the difficulty of financing has become the bottleneck that puzzles the development and growth of SMEs. What are the reasons behind the financing difficulties of SMEs? What is the connection between the financing problem and the credit risk of SMEs? In the credit risk of small and medium-sized enterprises, it is also important to know their willingness to pay debt in addition to evaluating their solvency. This paper begins with the difficulty of financing for small and medium-sized enterprises. Firstly, based on the review of the literature, the author points out that the fundamental reason is information asymmetry, which means that the credit risk of small and medium-sized enterprises can not be identified or understood. However, the existing evaluation of the credit risk of small and medium-sized enterprises is mainly focused on the investigation of their solvency, but rarely on the willingness to repay debt. Secondly, this paper focuses on the problem of SMEs' willingness to repay debt, analyzes the reasons for their weak willingness, and discusses the current research methods of SMEs' willingness to repay debt. Then, considering the incomplete rationality of decision-makers and the convenient and intuitive research methods, this paper introduces the foreground theory and multi-agent simulation method, and analyzes the three factors that affect the willingness of SMEs to repay debt based on the prospect theory. The simulation model of multi-agent is constructed. Finally, relational loan is a kind of effective model to alleviate the financing difficulties of small and medium-sized enterprises. This paper embed the willingness to repay debt of small and medium-sized enterprises into relational loans, and analyzed the role of willingness to repay debt and relational loans. It is found that the willingness to repay debt is not entirely linear with the change of variables. In order to identify and enhance the willingness of SMEs to repay debt more effectively, banks and other creditors should not only understand the expected profit margin of SMEs, but also guide them to pursue reasonable profit targets. At the same time, under the premise of setting a reasonable loan interest rate, we should increase the punishment of default and increase the cost of default. In addition, we should understand and attach importance to the whole debt service situation in the circle of small and medium-sized enterprises. In addition, it is concluded that the identification of SMEs' willingness to repay debt is helpful for the realization of relational loans, and the relational loan model can improve the willingness of SMEs to repay debt to a certain extent, which complement each other. This paper aims to provide a method to identify the willingness of small and medium-sized enterprises to repay debt by exploring the problem of financing difficulties and their willingness to repay debt of small and medium-sized enterprises, and to provide further consideration for alleviating the problem of financing difficulties of small and medium-sized enterprises.
【学位授予单位】：电子科技大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F832.4;F276.3
【参考文献】
相关期刊论文 前2条
1 肖青;刘海峰;;我国中小银行发展与中小企业融资[J];东方企业文化;2010年01期
2 池丽旭;庄新田;;我国基金经理心理参考点调整特征的实证研究[J];系统管理学报;2012年01期
，本文编号：2360095
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