产业结构调整与中国通货膨胀缺口持久性

发布时间：2018-12-19 17:49

【摘要】：转轨时期作为中国经济结构最重要内容的产业结构调整可能诱发通货膨胀缺口持久性的变化。本文将通货膨胀缺口作为通货膨胀持久性的替代变量,采用新凯恩斯混合菲利普斯曲线模型对1996～2010年期间中国通货膨胀的持久性特征进行了考察,并运用Blanchard-Quah结构分解方法分析了产业结构调整对通货膨胀缺口持久性的影响。结果表明,与现有研究的结果相比,单变量和多变量模型评估的中国通货膨胀缺口持久性都显著较低。通货膨胀缺口受第一、二、三产业结构冲击减弱至0的时期分别为3、3、2个季度;第一产业的发展对通胀缺口持久性的短期冲击为正,第二、三产业的冲击为负;总体而言,第一和第二产业的发展弱化了通货膨胀缺口持久性,第一产业的作用更为显著,而第三产业则强化了通货膨胀缺口持久性。各产业结构变化对通货膨胀缺口持久性的冲击力度大小分别为第一、三、二产业。因此,治理通货膨胀必须考虑产业结构调整因素的影响。
[Abstract]:The adjustment of industrial structure, which is the most important part of China's economic structure, may induce the persistent change of inflation gap during the transition period. In this paper, the inflation gap is regarded as the substitution variable of inflation persistence, and the new Keynesian mixed Phillips curve model is used to investigate the persistent characteristics of China's inflation from 1996 to 2010. The effect of industrial structure adjustment on the persistence of inflation gap is analyzed by using Blanchard-Quah structure decomposition method. The results show that both univariate and multivariate models evaluate the persistence of inflation gap in China significantly lower than that of existing studies. When the impact of the first, second and third industries was weakened to zero, the inflation gap was 3-, 3quarters, respectively, and the short-term impact of the development of the primary industry on the persistence of the inflation gap was positive, while the impact of the second and third industries was negative. In general, the development of the first and second industries weakens the persistence of inflation gap, the role of the primary industry is more significant, and the third industry strengthens the persistence of inflation gap. The impact of industrial structure change on inflation gap persistence is the first, third and second industries respectively. Therefore, the control inflation must consider the industrial structure adjustment factor's influence.
【作者单位】：武汉大学经济发展研究中心;武汉大学经济与管理学院;
【基金】：2010年教育部人文社会科学重点研究基地重大项目“逆周期宏观调控政策与中国经济平衡增长研究”(课题批准号:10JJD790003) 武汉大学自主科研项目(人文社会科学)的阶段性成果 “中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金”资助
【分类号】：F121.3;F822.5;F224

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