欧元危机的逻辑
发布时间：2019-01-05 17:38
【摘要】：本次危机的根源是欧元区外围国家的过度举债和核心国家的有借必应。欧洲货币联盟的治理框架为成员国之间的过度信贷开了方便之门。为了研判欧元区的前景,将外围成员国分为四类:有清偿能力和无清偿能力的国家,具有纠正宏观失衡意愿和不具有纠正失衡意愿的国家。经过调整,西班牙和爱尔兰的债务状况已经好转;新任保守党政府或将帮助葡萄牙扭转颓势;希腊退出欧元区几成定局;技术派政府"新政"或为意大利迎来转机;法国对欧元区的态度或因大选发生转变。
[Abstract]:The crisis has its roots in excessive borrowing by the euro zone's periphery and at the core. The European Monetary Union's governance framework has opened the door to excessive credit among member states. To assess the outlook for the euro zone, peripheral members are divided into four categories: solvent and insolvent, willing to correct macro imbalances and those not willing to correct them. After adjustment, the debt situation of Spain and Ireland has improved; the new Conservative government may help Portugal to reverse its decline; Greece's exit from the euro is almost certain; the technocratic government's "new deal" may turn the corner for Italy; France's attitude towards the euro zone may have changed due to the general election.
【作者单位】： 米兰博科尼大学;麻省理工学院;
【分类号】：F825
本文编号：2402093
[Abstract]:The crisis has its roots in excessive borrowing by the euro zone's periphery and at the core. The European Monetary Union's governance framework has opened the door to excessive credit among member states. To assess the outlook for the euro zone, peripheral members are divided into four categories: solvent and insolvent, willing to correct macro imbalances and those not willing to correct them. After adjustment, the debt situation of Spain and Ireland has improved; the new Conservative government may help Portugal to reverse its decline; Greece's exit from the euro is almost certain; the technocratic government's "new deal" may turn the corner for Italy; France's attitude towards the euro zone may have changed due to the general election.
【作者单位】： 米兰博科尼大学;麻省理工学院;
【分类号】：F825
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