日本新一轮量化宽松货币政策研究
发布时间：2019-01-23 13:02
【摘要】：自20世纪30年代的大萧条时期以来，在近一个世纪的时间里，有关“货币”和“货币政策”的学术研究不断推进，研究成果层出不穷，相关理论和实践不断突破创新。对“流动性陷阱”及相关问题的研究，一直是这些理论与实践关注的热点。针对货币非中性和“流动性陷阱”等问题，经济学家和美、日等国的政策制定者们以债务—通缩原理和“金融加速器”等理论为基础，推出了“量化宽松货币政策”这一工具。 量化宽松货币政策是指“中央银行在实行零利率或近似零利率政策后，通过购买国债等中长期债券，增加基础货币供给，向市场注入大量流动性的干预方式”。量化宽松货币政策的操作策略主要包括政策承诺、改变央行资产负债表的结构和扩大央行资产负债表的规模等。量化宽松货币政策的目标包括克服通货紧缩、稳定价格水平，恢复信贷体系功能、维护金融系统稳定以及刺激投资和消费、恢复经济增长等，其传导机制主要分为拉动GDP中消费、投资和出口增加的机制三类。 日本是全球范围内首个使用量化宽松货币政策的国家。2001年，为了扭转日本自20世纪90年代以来的通货紧缩和经济衰退局面，在零利率政策已经失效的情况下，日本银行决定实施量化宽松货币政策。这一政策一直持续至2006年，对日本经济起到了一定的提振效果。在2008年的全球金融危机中，日本经济再受重创，这使得日本银行于2010年再次求助于量化宽松货币政策这根稻草。2012年12月日本新任首相安倍晋三上任后，更是推出了被称为“安倍经济学”的一系列大胆、激进的经济刺激政策，其中包括了史无前例的超大规模量化宽松。日本新一轮量化宽松货币政策的实施吸引了全球各国的关注，也为量化宽松货币政策的理论研究提供了新的素材。 本文根据已有理论体系，对日本新一轮量化宽松货币政策的有效性和传导机制进行了系统性分析。研究发现，日本新一轮量化宽松货币政策在克服通货紧缩、稳定价格水平方面发挥了作用，，但在恢复信贷体系功能、维护金融系统稳定以及刺激投资和消费、恢复经济增长等方面的作用并不明显。同时，在日本的新一轮量化宽松货币政策实施过程中，受到私人部门和金融机构资产负债表状况的影响，以及日本原材料主要依赖进口的经济结构的制约，量化宽松货币政策的部分传导机制是无效的。 根据以上的研究，本文得出的结论是：量化宽松货币政策作为一项政策工具单独实施的效果比较有限，日本政府必须将货币政策与财政政策、结构性改革政策等其他政策与之相配合，才能有效地提振日本经济。最后，本文对日本经济未来一个阶段的走势和潜在的风险进行了分析预测。
[Abstract]:Since the Great Depression in the 1930s, the academic research on "money" and "monetary policy" has been continuously promoted in nearly a century, and the related theories and practices have been innovated and broken through one after another. The research on liquidity trap and related problems has always been the focus of attention in theory and practice. On the basis of the theory of debt-deflation and "financial accelerator", economists and policymakers in the United States, Japan and other countries have developed the tool of "quantitative easing monetary policy" in response to the problems of currency non-neutrality and "liquidity trap". The monetary policy of quantitative easing refers to "the intervention of the central bank to increase the basic money supply and inject a large amount of liquidity into the market by purchasing bonds and other medium- and long-term bonds after the implementation of zero interest rate or near-zero interest rate policy." The operational strategies of QE mainly include policy commitments, changing the structure of the central bank's balance sheet and expanding the size of the central bank's balance sheet. The objectives of quantitative easing monetary policy include overcoming deflation, stabilizing price levels, restoring the function of the credit system, maintaining the stability of the financial system, stimulating investment and consumption, and restoring economic growth. Its transmission mechanism is divided into three types: consumption, investment and export increase in GDP. Japan is the first country in the world to use quantitative easing monetary policy. In 2001, in order to reverse Japan's deflation and economic recession since the 1990s, when the zero interest rate policy has failed, The Bank of Japan decided to implement quantitative easing. The policy, which lasted until 2006, has given a boost to Japan's economy. Japan's economy was hit hard again during the 2008 global financial crisis, prompting the Bank of Japan to turn again to the straw of quantitative easing in 2010. In December 2012, Japan's new prime minister, Shinzo Abe, took office. A series of bold, aggressive economic stimulus measures, known as Abenomics, has been launched, including unprecedented massive quantitative easing. The implementation of Japan's new round of quantitative easing monetary policy has attracted the attention of all countries around the world, and has also provided new materials for the theoretical study of quantitative easing monetary policy. Based on the existing theoretical system, this paper systematically analyzes the effectiveness and transmission mechanism of Japan's new round of quantitative easing monetary policy. The study found that Japan's new round of quantitative easing monetary policy has played a role in overcoming deflation and stabilizing price levels, but it has played an important role in restoring the function of the credit system, maintaining the stability of the financial system, and stimulating investment and consumption. Recovery of economic growth and other aspects of the role is not obvious. At the same time, during the implementation of Japan's new round of quantitative easing monetary policy, it is affected by the balance sheet position of the private sector and financial institutions, as well as by the economic structure in which Japan's raw materials are mainly dependent on imports. Part of the transmission mechanism of quantitative easing monetary policy is ineffective. Based on the above research, this paper concludes that the effect of quantitative easing monetary policy as a policy tool is relatively limited, the Japanese government must take monetary policy and fiscal policy, Other policies, such as structural reform policies, can effectively boost Japan's economy. Finally, the trend and potential risks of Japanese economy in the future are analyzed and forecasted.
【学位授予单位】：中国社会科学院研究生院
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F823.13
本文编号：2413797
[Abstract]:Since the Great Depression in the 1930s, the academic research on "money" and "monetary policy" has been continuously promoted in nearly a century, and the related theories and practices have been innovated and broken through one after another. The research on liquidity trap and related problems has always been the focus of attention in theory and practice. On the basis of the theory of debt-deflation and "financial accelerator", economists and policymakers in the United States, Japan and other countries have developed the tool of "quantitative easing monetary policy" in response to the problems of currency non-neutrality and "liquidity trap". The monetary policy of quantitative easing refers to "the intervention of the central bank to increase the basic money supply and inject a large amount of liquidity into the market by purchasing bonds and other medium- and long-term bonds after the implementation of zero interest rate or near-zero interest rate policy." The operational strategies of QE mainly include policy commitments, changing the structure of the central bank's balance sheet and expanding the size of the central bank's balance sheet. The objectives of quantitative easing monetary policy include overcoming deflation, stabilizing price levels, restoring the function of the credit system, maintaining the stability of the financial system, stimulating investment and consumption, and restoring economic growth. Its transmission mechanism is divided into three types: consumption, investment and export increase in GDP. Japan is the first country in the world to use quantitative easing monetary policy. In 2001, in order to reverse Japan's deflation and economic recession since the 1990s, when the zero interest rate policy has failed, The Bank of Japan decided to implement quantitative easing. The policy, which lasted until 2006, has given a boost to Japan's economy. Japan's economy was hit hard again during the 2008 global financial crisis, prompting the Bank of Japan to turn again to the straw of quantitative easing in 2010. In December 2012, Japan's new prime minister, Shinzo Abe, took office. A series of bold, aggressive economic stimulus measures, known as Abenomics, has been launched, including unprecedented massive quantitative easing. The implementation of Japan's new round of quantitative easing monetary policy has attracted the attention of all countries around the world, and has also provided new materials for the theoretical study of quantitative easing monetary policy. Based on the existing theoretical system, this paper systematically analyzes the effectiveness and transmission mechanism of Japan's new round of quantitative easing monetary policy. The study found that Japan's new round of quantitative easing monetary policy has played a role in overcoming deflation and stabilizing price levels, but it has played an important role in restoring the function of the credit system, maintaining the stability of the financial system, and stimulating investment and consumption. Recovery of economic growth and other aspects of the role is not obvious. At the same time, during the implementation of Japan's new round of quantitative easing monetary policy, it is affected by the balance sheet position of the private sector and financial institutions, as well as by the economic structure in which Japan's raw materials are mainly dependent on imports. Part of the transmission mechanism of quantitative easing monetary policy is ineffective. Based on the above research, this paper concludes that the effect of quantitative easing monetary policy as a policy tool is relatively limited, the Japanese government must take monetary policy and fiscal policy, Other policies, such as structural reform policies, can effectively boost Japan's economy. Finally, the trend and potential risks of Japanese economy in the future are analyzed and forecasted.
【学位授予单位】：中国社会科学院研究生院
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F823.13
【参考文献】
相关期刊论文 前3条
1 师艳荣;;日本女性M型就业模式的变迁及发展趋势[J];日本问题研究;2013年01期
2 刘兴华;;日本的“零利率”政策:缘起、效果与趋势[J];现代日本经济;2010年04期
3 郑联盛;;量化宽松政策:原因、趋势及影响[J];中国金融;2010年23期
本文编号：2413797
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