城投公司多元化融资风险评价研究
发布时间：2019-02-09 21:03
【摘要】：城市基础设施建设是我国城市经济发展、居民生活水平进步的牢固基础,并且随着现代化发展,其龙头地位愈加凸显。然而,在实际社会经济运行过程中,我国仍未能真正认识到这一问题,使得基础设施投融资平台的风险日益突出,由于投资项目类型多样化与融资方式多元化导致的结构性风险逐渐浮现。如何有效评价城投公司多元化融资风险以及对结构性风险进行预测预警,对于指导地方投融资平台自身发展,乃至地方、国家经济发展,都具有重要意义。鉴于此,本研究从以下几个方面展开:(1)以三大理论(公共物品理论、可销售评估理论、项目区分理论)为基础,分析城市基础设施资产特点、投融资平台融资需求的驱动因素,概述投融资平台的融资风险与项目经营风险。(2)针对项目类型多样性和融资方式多元化匹配问题,建立包括经营性、融资结构、负债程度和收益水平的风险评价指标体系,从横向和纵向角度评价城投公司多元化融资风险,在此基础上提出了结构性风险概念,引入熵值法和理想点法量化多元化融资风险。(3)对提出的结构性风险进行影响因素研究,将蒙特卡洛模拟与Logistic多项回归模型相结合,对结构性风险影响因素量化与相关性分析,依据分析结果提出结构性风险预警模型,有效指导公司进行风险防范。
[Abstract]:Urban infrastructure construction is the solid foundation for the development of urban economy and the progress of residents' living standard, and with the development of modernization, its leading position becomes more and more prominent. However, in the process of actual social and economic operation, our country still can not really realize this problem, which makes the risk of infrastructure investment and financing platform more and more prominent. The structural risks caused by the diversification of investment project types and financing methods gradually emerge. How to effectively evaluate the diversified financing risk and predict the structural risk is of great significance to guide the development of local investment and financing platform and even the local and national economic development. In view of this, this study is carried out from the following aspects: (1) based on three theories (public goods theory, marketable evaluation theory, project differentiation theory), the characteristics of urban infrastructure assets are analyzed. The driving factors of the financing demand of the investment and financing platform, the financing risk and the project management risk of the investment and financing platform are summarized. (2) aiming at the problem of the diversification of the project type and the diversification of the financing mode, the paper establishes the management and financing structure. The risk evaluation index system of debt degree and income level, from the horizontal and vertical angles to evaluate the risk of diversified financing of the City Investment Corporation, on the basis of this, put forward the concept of structural risk. The entropy method and ideal point method are introduced to quantify the risk of diversified financing. (3) the influence factors of the proposed structural risk are studied, and the Monte Carlo simulation is combined with the Logistic multiple regression model. Based on the quantitative analysis and correlation analysis of the influencing factors of structural risk, the early warning model of structural risk is put forward according to the results of the analysis, which can effectively guide the company to carry out risk prevention.
【学位授予单位】：天津大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F832.39
本文编号：2419389
[Abstract]:Urban infrastructure construction is the solid foundation for the development of urban economy and the progress of residents' living standard, and with the development of modernization, its leading position becomes more and more prominent. However, in the process of actual social and economic operation, our country still can not really realize this problem, which makes the risk of infrastructure investment and financing platform more and more prominent. The structural risks caused by the diversification of investment project types and financing methods gradually emerge. How to effectively evaluate the diversified financing risk and predict the structural risk is of great significance to guide the development of local investment and financing platform and even the local and national economic development. In view of this, this study is carried out from the following aspects: (1) based on three theories (public goods theory, marketable evaluation theory, project differentiation theory), the characteristics of urban infrastructure assets are analyzed. The driving factors of the financing demand of the investment and financing platform, the financing risk and the project management risk of the investment and financing platform are summarized. (2) aiming at the problem of the diversification of the project type and the diversification of the financing mode, the paper establishes the management and financing structure. The risk evaluation index system of debt degree and income level, from the horizontal and vertical angles to evaluate the risk of diversified financing of the City Investment Corporation, on the basis of this, put forward the concept of structural risk. The entropy method and ideal point method are introduced to quantify the risk of diversified financing. (3) the influence factors of the proposed structural risk are studied, and the Monte Carlo simulation is combined with the Logistic multiple regression model. Based on the quantitative analysis and correlation analysis of the influencing factors of structural risk, the early warning model of structural risk is put forward according to the results of the analysis, which can effectively guide the company to carry out risk prevention.
【学位授予单位】：天津大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F832.39
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