中国的实际汇率制度:基于BBC框架的动态考察
发布时间：2019-03-25 09:07
【摘要】：本文基于汇率篮子、波动区间、爬行速度三维指标构建了广义的汇率制度识别框架,并利用状态空间模型对中国的实际汇率制度及其变迁轨迹进行动态考察。结果表明:2005年汇改前中国事实上实行单一盯住美元的固定汇率制;2005-2008年、2010-2015年中国实行参照一篮子货币的浮动汇率制;而在2008-2010年间实行的是参考盯住一篮子货币的固定汇率制;汇改后人民币汇率篮子中美元占比仍稳定在86%-90%之间,其他货币主要起"点缀"作用;尽管人民币相对一篮子货币存在趋势性升值、贬值的变化,但人民币的汇率制度弹性自2008年起长期未变;未来深化汇率形成机制改革可从完善人民币中间价定价机制等角度入手。
[Abstract]:Based on the three-dimensional index of exchange rate basket, fluctuation range and crawling speed, this paper constructs a broad framework for the identification of exchange rate regime, and dynamically investigates the real exchange rate regime and its transition trajectory in China by using the state space model. The results show that before the exchange rate reform in 2005, China actually implemented a fixed exchange rate system with a single peg to the dollar, and in 2005-2008, China implemented a floating exchange rate system with reference to a basket of currencies from 2010 to 2015. The fixed exchange rate system with reference to a basket of currencies was implemented in 2008 / 2010. After the exchange rate reform, the share of the US dollar in the RMB exchange rate basket remained stable at 86% / 90%, while other currencies played a "dotted" role. In spite of the trend appreciation and devaluation of RMB relative to a basket of currencies, the elasticity of RMB exchange rate regime has not changed for a long time since 2008. Deepening the reform of exchange rate formation mechanism in the future can be done from the perspective of perfecting the RMB mid-rate pricing mechanism.
【作者单位】： 首都经济贸易大学金融学院、金融风险研究院;
【基金】：国家社科基金青年项目“金砖国家应急储备安排的风险分担、收益分配与治理优化问题研究”(15CJY081) 北京市教委社科计划一般项目“应急储备安排的机制障碍与破解路径”(SM201610038002) 首都经济贸易大学2015年中青年骨干教师培育项目和首都经济贸易大学2013年度科研基金项目资助
【分类号】：F832.6
[Abstract]:Based on the three-dimensional index of exchange rate basket, fluctuation range and crawling speed, this paper constructs a broad framework for the identification of exchange rate regime, and dynamically investigates the real exchange rate regime and its transition trajectory in China by using the state space model. The results show that before the exchange rate reform in 2005, China actually implemented a fixed exchange rate system with a single peg to the dollar, and in 2005-2008, China implemented a floating exchange rate system with reference to a basket of currencies from 2010 to 2015. The fixed exchange rate system with reference to a basket of currencies was implemented in 2008 / 2010. After the exchange rate reform, the share of the US dollar in the RMB exchange rate basket remained stable at 86% / 90%, while other currencies played a "dotted" role. In spite of the trend appreciation and devaluation of RMB relative to a basket of currencies, the elasticity of RMB exchange rate regime has not changed for a long time since 2008. Deepening the reform of exchange rate formation mechanism in the future can be done from the perspective of perfecting the RMB mid-rate pricing mechanism.
【作者单位】： 首都经济贸易大学金融学院、金融风险研究院;
【基金】：国家社科基金青年项目“金砖国家应急储备安排的风险分担、收益分配与治理优化问题研究”(15CJY081) 北京市教委社科计划一般项目“应急储备安排的机制障碍与破解路径”(SM201610038002) 首都经济贸易大学2015年中青年骨干教师培育项目和首都经济贸易大学2013年度科研基金项目资助
【分类号】：F832.6
【参考文献】
相关期刊论文 前6条
1 陈思，
本文编号：2446832
本文链接：https://www.wllwen.com/jingjilunwen/guojijinrong/2446832.html
