人民币国际化进程中在岸离岸套利现象研究
发布时间：2019-03-28 12:25
【摘要】：无论是2009年下半年至2011年上半年人民币国际化取得的快速进展,还是2011年下半年人民币国际化进程陷入的停滞,均与香港离岸市场与内地在岸市场之间的套汇与套利活动密切相关。两个市场之间的套汇活动包括利用两地的人民币现汇差价进行套汇以及利用持续的人民币升值或贬值预期进行套汇;两个市场之间的套利活动包括基于人民币信用证的内保外贷以及内地企业在香港发行人民币债券。本文剖析了上述套汇套利活动的市场背景、具体机制、相应结果及有关证据。基于上述分析,本文认为,在政策优先次序上,国内经济结构性调整应优于人民币国际化;利率与汇率市场化改革以及国内金融市场深化应优于资本账户开放。
[Abstract]:Whether the rapid progress made in the internationalization of the renminbi in the second half of 2009 to the first half of 2011, or the stagnation in the internationalization process of the renminbi in the second half of 2011, Both are closely related to arbitrage and arbitrage between the offshore market of Hong Kong and the onshore market of the mainland. The arbitrage activities between the two markets include arbitrage using the difference in RMB exchange rate between the two places and using the expectation of continuous appreciation or devaluation of the RMB to carry out the arbitrage; Arbitrage between the two markets includes domestic and foreign loans based on renminbi letters of credit and mainland companies issuing renminbi-denominated bonds in Hong Kong. This paper analyzes the market background, specific mechanism, corresponding results and relevant evidence of the arbitrage activities mentioned above. Based on the above analysis, this paper points out that the structural adjustment of domestic economy should be superior to the internationalization of RMB in terms of policy priority, and the reform of interest rate and exchange rate marketization and the deepening of domestic financial market should be better than the opening of capital account.
【作者单位】： 中国社会科学院世界经济与政治研究所;
【分类号】：F832.6
[Abstract]:Whether the rapid progress made in the internationalization of the renminbi in the second half of 2009 to the first half of 2011, or the stagnation in the internationalization process of the renminbi in the second half of 2011, Both are closely related to arbitrage and arbitrage between the offshore market of Hong Kong and the onshore market of the mainland. The arbitrage activities between the two markets include arbitrage using the difference in RMB exchange rate between the two places and using the expectation of continuous appreciation or devaluation of the RMB to carry out the arbitrage; Arbitrage between the two markets includes domestic and foreign loans based on renminbi letters of credit and mainland companies issuing renminbi-denominated bonds in Hong Kong. This paper analyzes the market background, specific mechanism, corresponding results and relevant evidence of the arbitrage activities mentioned above. Based on the above analysis, this paper points out that the structural adjustment of domestic economy should be superior to the internationalization of RMB in terms of policy priority, and the reform of interest rate and exchange rate marketization and the deepening of domestic financial market should be better than the opening of capital account.
【作者单位】： 中国社会科学院世界经济与政治研究所;
【分类号】：F832.6
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