金融危机以来贸易保护主义对我国对外贸易的影响研究

发布时间：2019-04-18 17:49

【摘要】：美国次贷危机引起了全球性的经济危机,带来的负面影响,从美国扩散到其他国家,进而从发达国家扩散至新兴发展中国家,负面影响逐步波及全世界；另一方面,又由于此次金融危机的发生是在金融原生品和金融衍生品两方面的双重危机,因此它的负面影响更加巨大,从金融领域扩散到实体经济领域,经济危机与实体经济危机相互影响,经济萎靡和对外贸易萎缩相互制约。2008年全球性的金融危机全面爆发之后,世界主要经济体经济增长的势头减弱,经济开始衰退,贸易保护主义抬头,并且出现了一些新的趋势,世界各国之间贸易摩擦日益频繁。为了缓解危机,各国纷纷寻找应对之策,然而,贸易保护主义暗涌潺动,一些国家和地区纷纷采取紧缩的对外贸易政策。中国作为贸易大国,即使在经济危机的情况下,2009年仍旧成为了世界第一出口大国。因此我国成为了世界各国发起贸易保护的目标；其次,由于我国自身出口产品的构成、出口产业结构方面的原因,新贸易保护主义在现阶段情况下会对我国产生较大的负面影响。因此我国政府、对外贸易行业、对外贸易企业应采取相应措施,积极的应对。本文从理论和实证两个方面研究分析,金融危机以来,新贸易保护主义对我国对外贸易的影响。本文首先从理论方面分析了新贸易保护主义在金融危机以来,在现代特有的背景下,其形式及其传导机制,并重点分析此次新贸易保护主义具有的特征：贸易保护主体具有全球性和区域性特点；贸易保护的范围逐渐变大、贸易保护所涉及的行业领域增多,除了要保护传统工业的以外,各国还对自己国家的金融业、服务业、高技术产业等进行了不同程度的保护,即被保护的产品与被保护的行业更为广泛；贸易保护手段纷繁复杂,各国不仅使用传统的关税壁垒、进出口限额、反倾销反补贴等直接贸易保护手段,更转而使用隐蔽的间接的贸易保护手段,例如技术壁垒、绿色壁垒等；抢占国外市场成为了各国在金融危机后对外贸易政策的目的之一,各国纷纷制定干预国内、国外市场的政策,以保护本国民族产业。其次,分析金融危机之后新贸易保护主义对我国的影响：对外贸易进口总额和对外贸易出口总额都有下滑；我国的加工贸易备受打击严重；我国国内利用外资的比率较以前降低：产业安全形势不容乐观；影响我国国内经济的稳定运行。本文在实证研究中,由于贸易保护主义的手段纷繁复杂,涉及对中国实施贸易保护手段的国家数目众多,其中,中美两国间贸易具有典型性,因此。选取美国对中国的反倾销对中国的影响来进行实证分析,分析新贸易保护主义对中国造成哪些方面的影响。实证中,用中国出口产品的贸易额、中美两国GDP、实际有效汇率、反倾销调查裁定结果以及反倾销税率作为变量,来分析金融危机后新贸易保护主义的抬头和我国对外贸易之间的相互关系。实证结果表明,美国针对中国实施反倾销的举措只能起到短期的抑制作用,这并不是美国可以用来调节贸易平衡的长期之策。然而,贸易保护措施是一把双刃剑,无论是对于出口国还是进口国来说,都是有利有弊。同样,我国作为世界进出口大国来,在这种情形之下,贸易保护主义对我国的影响不单单是有消极的一面,也有其积极的一面。本文就种其影响的双面性进行了具体的分析,并且提出了相应的对策。
[Abstract]:The United States subprime crisis has caused a global economic crisis, a negative impact, from the spread of the United States to other countries and, in turn, from developed countries to emerging developing countries, with a negative impact on the world; on the other hand, As a result of the financial crisis, it is a double crisis in both the financial and the financial derivatives, so its negative impact is more significant, from the financial field to the solid economic field, the economic crisis and the entity economic crisis influence each other, In the wake of the global financial crisis in 2008, the economic growth of the major economies of the world has weakened, the economy has begun to decline, trade protectionism is rising, and a number of new trends have emerged, Trade friction between countries of the world is becoming more and more frequent. In order to alleviate the crisis, countries are looking for ways to deal with. However, trade protectionism is in the dark, and some countries and regions have adopted a tight foreign trade policy. China, as a major trading country, remains the world's first-largest exporter in 2009, even in the context of the economic crisis. Therefore, our country has become the goal of the world to launch the trade protection; secondly, because of the structure of our own export products and the reason of the export industrial structure, the new trade protectionism will have a great negative impact on our country at this stage. Therefore, the government, foreign trade and foreign trade enterprises should take corresponding measures and respond positively. This paper studies the influence of new trade protectionism on China's foreign trade since the financial crisis. This paper first analyzes the new trade protectionism in the context of the modern characteristic, its form and its conduction mechanism since the financial crisis, and analyzes the characteristics of this new trade protectionism. The scope of trade protection gradually increases, and the trade protection covers an increase in the field of industry. In addition to protecting the traditional industry, countries have different degrees of protection for the financial industry, service industry, high-tech industry, etc. of their own countries, that is, the protected product is more extensive than the protected industry; the trade protection means are complicated, and the countries not only use the direct trade protection means such as the traditional tariff, the import and export limit, the anti-dumping and anti-subsidy and the like, and more in turn use the hidden indirect trade protection means, For example, technical barriers, green barriers, and the like; to seize foreign markets and become one of the purposes of foreign trade policies after the financial crisis, countries have developed policies to intervene in the domestic and foreign markets to protect the national industry. Secondly, after the analysis of the financial crisis, the effect of the new trade protectionism on our country: the total import of foreign trade and the total export of foreign trade have been declining; China's processing trade has been hit seriously; the ratio of domestic use of foreign capital in China is lower than that of the previous year: the industry security situation is not optimistic; The stable operation of China's domestic economy is affected. In the empirical study, because of the complexity of the means of trade protectionism, the number of countries involved in the implementation of trade protection measures in China is numerous, among which, the trade between China and the United States is typical, and therefore. An empirical analysis of China's anti-dumping effect on China is chosen to analyze the effects of new trade protectionism on China. In this paper, the relationship between the rise of the new trade protectionism and the foreign trade between China and China is analyzed by the trade volume of China's export products, the GDP of China and the United States, the actual effective exchange rate, the result of the anti-dumping investigation and the anti-dumping duty rate as the variable. The empirical results show that the United States has only a short-term effect on China's anti-dumping initiative, which is not a long-term strategy that the United States can use to regulate trade balance. However, trade protection measures are a double-edged sword, both for exporting and importing countries. In the same way, our country, as the world's import and export country, in this situation, the influence of trade protectionism on our country is not only a negative one, but also has its positive side. In this paper, the two-sided property of the effect is analyzed, and the corresponding countermeasures are put forward.
【学位授予单位】：南京大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F752.7;F832.59

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