中国通货膨胀与RPV——基于理论模型的实证研究

发布时间：2019-04-26 18:55

【摘要】：文章简单介绍了有关通货膨胀与RPV关系的理论并构建了理论模型;然后估算了中国加权的RPV与不加权的RPV以及通货膨胀率,再构建单变量的GARCH模型将通货膨胀率分解为预期通货膨胀、非预期通货膨胀和通货膨胀不确定性三个要素,并运用估计得到的数据实证检验了中国通货膨胀与RPV的关系。研究得出中国通货膨胀与RPV呈指数型非线性关系,并且存在结构断点,国外有关通货膨胀与RPV关系的理论模型也得到了一定地数据支持,但是单独一种理论模型无法全面解释中国RPV与通货膨胀的关系,三种模型结合起来也是不健全的。
[Abstract]:This paper briefly introduces the theory of the relationship between inflation and RPV and constructs a theoretical model. Then we estimate China's weighted RPV and unweighted RPV and inflation rate, then construct a single variable GARCH model to decompose inflation into three factors: expected inflation, unanticipated inflation and inflation uncertainty. And using the estimated data to test the relationship between inflation and RPV in China. It is concluded that the relationship between inflation and RPV in China is exponential nonlinear, and there are structural breakpoints. The theoretical models of inflation and RPV in foreign countries are also supported by some data. However, a single theoretical model cannot fully explain the relationship between RPV and inflation in China, and the combination of the three models is not perfect.
【作者单位】：重庆大学贸易与行政学院;重庆大学经济与工商管理学院;
【基金】：国家社会科学基金资助项目(07BJY110)
【分类号】：F224;F822.5

【共引文献】