人民币实际有效汇率变动对我国服务贸易收支的影响研究
发布时间：2019-04-27 20:28
【摘要】：服务贸易是一个国家开放经济的重要组成部分。特别是进入20世纪50年代以来，以服务业和服务贸易为主体的服务经济迅速崛起。我国自2001年加入WTO后，服务贸易发展十分迅猛，规模日益扩大。2013年，我国已经成为世界第三大服务贸易国。值得一提的是，在我国服务贸易持续呈现强劲表现的同时，我国服务贸易出口和进口的不平衡的问题也突显了出来：我国对外服务贸易在1982年还有6亿美元的顺差，但此后顺差便不断减少，并最终发展成逆差——2012年我国服务贸易逆差已经达到897亿美元。 在影响一国国际贸易的众多因素中，汇率作为最为敏感的主要影响因素之一，其水平和变动情况构成了国际贸易风险的主要内容。汇率变动将直接对一国商品的出口成本和贸易收支情况产生影响。在研究领域，绝大部分关于汇率变动对国际贸易影响的文献都侧重围绕对货物贸易的影响而铺叙，而针对汇率变动与服务贸易的关系的研究并不多。本文运用我国1995至2012年的人民币实际有效汇率和服务贸易收支数据,以不完全替代模型为基础建立了我国服务贸易收支逆差模型,从而对人民币实际有效汇率与我国服务贸易收支的关系展开了实证研究。结论表明人民币实际有效汇率对我国服务贸易收支逆差存在负影响：即人民币实际有效汇率指数增大（间接标价法）即人民币升值将导致我国服务贸易逆差减少。 文章主体共分为四个部分，第一部分首先介绍了汇率的基本知识和实际汇率的测算方法，重点梳理了有关汇率与国际贸易之间关系的几大经典理论和学说。第二章主要阐述我国服务贸易的概况，从规模和行业结构两个角度阐述了我国服务贸易的发展现状和特点，并着重讨论了当前我国服务贸易所呈现的几大问题。第三章是实证分析部分，采用加权最小二乘法对我国服务贸易逆差与人民币实际汇率之间的关系进行实证分析。第四章阐述结论，并根据实证结果结合我国服务贸易的实际发展情况对我国服务贸易如何稳健和全面地发展提出了建议。
[Abstract]:Service trade is an important part of a country's open economy. Especially since 1950's, the service economy with service and service trade as the main body has risen rapidly. Since China joined the WTO in 2001, the service trade has been developing rapidly and expanding day by day. In 2013, China has become the third largest service trading country in the world. It is worth mentioning that while China's trade in services continues to show strong performance, the imbalance in the export and import of China's trade in services is also highlighted: in 1982, China's foreign trade in services still had a surplus of US $600 million. But since then, the surplus has dwindled and eventually turned into a deficit-China's service trade deficit reached $89.7 billion in 2012. Among the many factors that affect a country's international trade, the exchange rate, as one of the most sensitive factors, its level and changes constitute the main content of the risk of international trade. Exchange rate changes will directly affect the export cost and trade balance of a country's goods. In the field of research, most of the literatures on the impact of exchange rate changes on international trade focus on the impact on trade in goods, but there are few studies on the relationship between exchange rate changes and trade in services. Based on the data of the real effective exchange rate of RMB and the income and expenditure of trade in services from 1995 to 2012 in China, this paper sets up the deficit model of the trade in services based on the incomplete substitution model. Thus, this paper makes an empirical study on the relationship between the real effective exchange rate of RMB and the income and expenditure of China's trade in services. The conclusion shows that the real effective exchange rate of RMB has a negative effect on the balance of payment deficit of China's trade in services. The main body of the article is divided into four parts. The first part introduces the basic knowledge of the exchange rate and the calculation method of the real exchange rate, focusing on some classical theories and theories about the relationship between the exchange rate and the international trade. The second chapter mainly expounds the general situation of our country's service trade, expounds the present situation and characteristics of our country's service trade from the angle of scale and industry structure, and emphatically discusses some major problems presented by our country's service trade at present. The third chapter is the empirical analysis, the weighted least square method is used to analyze the relationship between the trade deficit in services and the real exchange rate of RMB. The fourth chapter expounds the conclusion, and according to the empirical results combined with the actual development of China's trade in services, puts forward some suggestions on how to develop China's trade in services steadily and in an all-round way.
【学位授予单位】：辽宁大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F752.68;F832.6
本文编号：2467283
[Abstract]:Service trade is an important part of a country's open economy. Especially since 1950's, the service economy with service and service trade as the main body has risen rapidly. Since China joined the WTO in 2001, the service trade has been developing rapidly and expanding day by day. In 2013, China has become the third largest service trading country in the world. It is worth mentioning that while China's trade in services continues to show strong performance, the imbalance in the export and import of China's trade in services is also highlighted: in 1982, China's foreign trade in services still had a surplus of US $600 million. But since then, the surplus has dwindled and eventually turned into a deficit-China's service trade deficit reached $89.7 billion in 2012. Among the many factors that affect a country's international trade, the exchange rate, as one of the most sensitive factors, its level and changes constitute the main content of the risk of international trade. Exchange rate changes will directly affect the export cost and trade balance of a country's goods. In the field of research, most of the literatures on the impact of exchange rate changes on international trade focus on the impact on trade in goods, but there are few studies on the relationship between exchange rate changes and trade in services. Based on the data of the real effective exchange rate of RMB and the income and expenditure of trade in services from 1995 to 2012 in China, this paper sets up the deficit model of the trade in services based on the incomplete substitution model. Thus, this paper makes an empirical study on the relationship between the real effective exchange rate of RMB and the income and expenditure of China's trade in services. The conclusion shows that the real effective exchange rate of RMB has a negative effect on the balance of payment deficit of China's trade in services. The main body of the article is divided into four parts. The first part introduces the basic knowledge of the exchange rate and the calculation method of the real exchange rate, focusing on some classical theories and theories about the relationship between the exchange rate and the international trade. The second chapter mainly expounds the general situation of our country's service trade, expounds the present situation and characteristics of our country's service trade from the angle of scale and industry structure, and emphatically discusses some major problems presented by our country's service trade at present. The third chapter is the empirical analysis, the weighted least square method is used to analyze the relationship between the trade deficit in services and the real exchange rate of RMB. The fourth chapter expounds the conclusion, and according to the empirical results combined with the actual development of China's trade in services, puts forward some suggestions on how to develop China's trade in services steadily and in an all-round way.
【学位授予单位】：辽宁大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F752.68;F832.6
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