美国量化宽松货币政策的实施对我国国际收支的影响分析
发布时间：2019-05-08 04:35
【摘要】：2008年全球性的金融危机爆发以来，美国货币当局为推动其国内经济复苏实施了量化宽松货币政策，该项政策的执行将不可避免的对我国经济产生较为深远的影响。本文根据相关经济学理论，着重分析了美国量化宽松货币政策对我国的国际收支状况造成的冲击与影响，认为政策实施的传导机制，会加剧我国国际收支失衡现象。文中运用经济统计数据，建立以经常账户差额、长期资本流动差额和外汇储备余额为行为变量的联立方程模型对上述影响进行实证分析，并应用岭回归方法解决模型中所遇到的估计问题，，得到了美国量化宽松政策的实施使我国经常账户差额下降、长期资本流动差额上升和外汇储备余额下降的结论。 本文建议，我国应当继续推进人民币汇率生成机制改革，使我国的汇率生成机制由政策因素主导向市场因素主导转变，提高我国经济的运行效率；同时，我国货币当局应当逐步推进利率生成机制改革，充分发挥利率在资源优化配置中的杠杆作用，提高我国资金的使用效率；此外，还应当维持我国现有的资本流动管制，以此作为减轻我国外部失衡和保持金融稳定的一条途径。
[Abstract]:Since the outbreak of the global financial crisis in 2008, the monetary authorities of the United States have implemented a quantitative easing monetary policy to promote their domestic economic recovery. The implementation of the policy will inevitably have a far-reaching impact on China's economy. Based on the relevant economic theory, this paper analyzes the impact and influence of American quantitative easing monetary policy on China's international balance of payments, and points out that the transmission mechanism of policy implementation will aggravate the imbalance of China's international balance of payments. In this paper, we use economic statistics to establish a simultaneous equation model which takes current account difference, long-term capital flow balance and foreign exchange reserve balance as behavioral variables to carry on the empirical analysis to the above-mentioned effects. The ridge regression method is used to solve the estimation problems encountered in the model, and the conclusion is drawn that the implementation of quantitative easing policy in the United States will reduce the current account balance, increase the long-term capital flow balance and decrease the balance of foreign exchange reserves in China. This paper suggests that China should continue to promote the reform of RMB exchange rate generation mechanism so that the exchange rate generation mechanism of China can be transformed from policy factors to market factors so as to improve the operational efficiency of China's economy. At the same time, China's monetary authorities should gradually promote the reform of interest rate generation mechanism, give full play to the leverage of interest rates in the optimal allocation of resources, and improve the efficiency of the use of funds in our country; In addition, the existing capital flow control should be maintained as a way to reduce the external imbalance and maintain financial stability.
【学位授予单位】：山西财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F827.12;F832.6
本文编号：2471622
[Abstract]:Since the outbreak of the global financial crisis in 2008, the monetary authorities of the United States have implemented a quantitative easing monetary policy to promote their domestic economic recovery. The implementation of the policy will inevitably have a far-reaching impact on China's economy. Based on the relevant economic theory, this paper analyzes the impact and influence of American quantitative easing monetary policy on China's international balance of payments, and points out that the transmission mechanism of policy implementation will aggravate the imbalance of China's international balance of payments. In this paper, we use economic statistics to establish a simultaneous equation model which takes current account difference, long-term capital flow balance and foreign exchange reserve balance as behavioral variables to carry on the empirical analysis to the above-mentioned effects. The ridge regression method is used to solve the estimation problems encountered in the model, and the conclusion is drawn that the implementation of quantitative easing policy in the United States will reduce the current account balance, increase the long-term capital flow balance and decrease the balance of foreign exchange reserves in China. This paper suggests that China should continue to promote the reform of RMB exchange rate generation mechanism so that the exchange rate generation mechanism of China can be transformed from policy factors to market factors so as to improve the operational efficiency of China's economy. At the same time, China's monetary authorities should gradually promote the reform of interest rate generation mechanism, give full play to the leverage of interest rates in the optimal allocation of resources, and improve the efficiency of the use of funds in our country; In addition, the existing capital flow control should be maintained as a way to reduce the external imbalance and maintain financial stability.
【学位授予单位】：山西财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F827.12;F832.6
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