西部十二省金融与矿业发展的因果关系研究

发布时间：2019-05-29 21:11

【摘要】：矿产资源是人类物质生产的重要基础，矿业为国民经济各个行业提供了最基础的动力和原材料。矿业具有风险高、资金需求大、投资回收期长等特征，因此现代矿业的发展离不开金融的支持。这使得矿业发展与金融发展之间的关系成为一个重要的问题。我国的矿产资源主要来自西部地区。西部地区成矿地质条件优越，天然气、煤、铜、磷、铅、稀土等27种矿产的探明储量占全国的50%以上。为定量研究西部十二省金融发展与矿业发展之间的关系，本文以西部十二省为研究对象，1997年—2011年为研究期，对这些地区金融的发展与当地煤炭开采和洗选业、石油和天然气开采业、黑色金属矿采选业、有色金属矿采选业与非金属矿采选业发展的关系进行了实证研究。本文思路如下：（1）收集西部十二省金融业增加值及矿业各产业的产值数据，分析各地区金融发展与矿业发展在趋势上的差异。（2）构造金融发展变量和矿业产业发展变量并进行单位根检验和协整检验，确定金融发展与矿业发展之间是否存在长期均衡关系。（3）构建误差修正模型来检验西部十二省金融发展与矿业各产业发展之间的长期因果关系。（4）通过格兰杰因果检验确定西部十二省金融与五个矿业产业之间的短期因果关系。（5）总结各地区、各矿业产业发展与当地金融发展之间的长期因果关系和短期因果关系的规律，并分析产生这些规律的原因，最后提出政策建议。本文有三个创新点：（1）发现了西部地区金融与矿业发展趋势的三种类型。（2）分地区、分产业进行了实证研究，通过大量详实的数据，，从空间、时间、产业三个维度上挖掘了金融与矿业之间的关系。（3）总结了西部地区金融发展与矿业发展长期因果关系和短期因果关系的规律。实证结果显示：西部十二个地区金融与矿业发展存在三种不同的情况：贵州、西藏和陕西的金融与矿业协同发展，内蒙古、云南、甘肃、青海、宁夏、新疆的金融先发展矿业滞后发展，广西、重庆、四川的矿业先发展金融滞后发展。长期来看，西部各地区金融发展对绝大多数产业发展有显著促进作用。矿业发展对金融发展的推动作用不如金融发展对矿业发展的推动作用普遍。西部矿业发展与金融发展之间的一些长期因果关系在短期内不会显现。西部大开发战略实施以来，当地的交通、水利、能源、通信取得了较大的进步，为西部经济的进一步发展奠定了基础。西部丰富的资源禀赋决定了矿业依然是未来的发展动力。根据本文的研究结果，未来一段时期内西部各省市应因地制宜，结合当地资源特征，以切实的措施促进的西部地区金融的发展，比如拓宽矿业融资渠道、促进证券业发展等，以金融的快速健康发展获得矿业产业的长期繁荣。
[Abstract]:Mineral resources are an important basis for human material production, mining provides the most basic power and raw materials for various industries of the national economy. Mining industry has the characteristics of high risk, large capital demand, long payback period and so on, so the development of modern mining industry can not be separated from the support of finance. This makes the relationship between mining development and financial development an important issue. The mineral resources of our country mainly come from the western region. The metallogenic geological conditions in the western region are superior, and the proven reserves of 27 kinds of minerals, such as natural gas, coal, copper, phosphorus, lead and rare earth, account for more than 50% of the country. In order to quantitatively study the relationship between financial development and mining development in the 12 western provinces, this paper takes the western 12 provinces as the research object, 1997-2011 as the research period, and the financial development in these areas and the local coal mining and washing industry. The relationship between oil and natural gas mining, ferrous metal mining and separation, non-ferrous metal mining and separation and the development of non-metal mining and separation industry is empirically studied. The ideas of this paper are as follows: (1) collect the data of the added value of the financial industry and the output value of the mining industries in the 12 western provinces. The differences in the trend of financial development and mining development in different regions are analyzed. (2) the financial development variables and mining industry development variables are constructed and the unit root test and cointegration test are carried out. To determine whether there is a long-term equilibrium relationship between financial development and mining development. (3) to build an error correction model to test the long-term causality between financial development and mining industry development in the 12 western provinces. (4) by using the error correction model, we can test the long-term causality between financial development and mining industry development in the 12 western provinces. Granger causality test determines the short-term causality between finance and five mining industries in the 12 western provinces. (5) summing up the regions, The long-term causality and short-term causality between the development of mining industry and local finance are analyzed, and the causes of these laws are analyzed, and finally the policy suggestions are put forward. There are three innovations in this paper: (1) three types of financial and mining development trends in the western region are found. (2) empirical research is carried out in different regions and industries, and through a large number of detailed data, from space and time, The relationship between finance and mining industry is excavated in three dimensions of industry. (3) the laws of long-term causality and short-term causality between financial development and mining development in western China are summarized. The empirical results show that there are three different situations in the development of finance and mining industry in the 12 regions of western China: Guizhou, Tibet and Shaanxi, Inner Mongolia, Yunnan, Gansu, Qinghai and Ningxia. The development of finance in Xinjiang lags behind the development of mining industry, while the development of mining industry in Guangxi, Chongqing and Sichuan lags behind the development of finance. In the long run, the financial development of the western regions plays a significant role in promoting the development of most industries. The promoting effect of mining development on financial development is not as common as that of financial development on mining development. Some long-term causality between mining development and financial development in western China will not appear in the short term. Since the implementation of the strategy of developing the western region, great progress has been made in local transportation, water conservancy, energy and communication, which has laid the foundation for the further development of the western economy. The rich resource endowment in the west determines that mining is still the driving force of development in the future. According to the research results of this paper, in the future, the western provinces and cities should take measures according to local conditions, combined with the characteristics of local resources, and take practical measures to promote the development of finance in the western region, such as widening the financing channels of mining industry, promoting the development of securities industry, and so on. With the rapid and healthy development of finance to obtain the long-term prosperity of the mining industry.
【学位授予单位】：中国地质大学（北京）
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F832.7;F426.1

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