中国货币政策的资产价格传导机制研究
发布时间：2019-05-30 04:54
【摘要】：金融危机爆发后,资产价格在货币政策传导机制中的作用越来越显著,关注资产价格波动,注重研究货币政策资产价格传导机制十分必要。随着房地产市场和股票市场的不断发展,房价和股价在货币政策传导机制中的地位越来越显著,所以研究货币政策房价传导机制和股价传导机制十分必要。对货币政策传导机制基础理论介绍后,运用SVAR模型对货币政策房价与股价传导机制进行实证分析。采用2009年1月至2014年1月的宏观经济月度数据,分别对货币政策房价和股价传导机制进行研究。此后,又对金融危机前后货币政策资产价格传导机制的异同进行了对比分析,包括危机前后货币政策房价传导机制和危机前后货币政策股价传导机制,数据选取跨度为2001年1月至2008年12月。文章通过对比货币政策房价和股价传导机制、对比危机前后货币政策房价传导机制和股价传导机制得出以下结论。第一,房价传导机制比股价传导机制更畅通。第二,金融危机后货币政策调节房价的能力虽没金融危机前明显,但效果的持续性加强,房地产市场在货币政策传导机制中的地位有所提升。第三,危机后利率和货币供应量对股价影响都比金融危机前显著,股价对宏观经济的影响比金融危机前稍微显著一些。针对第一条结论提出以下建议,提高股价传导机制的有效性；加强行政措施控制房价；制定货币政策时注重房地产市场对实体经济的影响。针对第二条结论提出以下建议,合理地控制货币供应量的增长速度；货币政策应关注房地产市场的发展和房价波动；在房价上涨初期就应提高利率,紧缩货币供应量；加强境外资本流入管理。针对第三条结论提出建议,加快推进利率市场化改革,使货币政策股价传导机制更畅通；充分发挥股票市场的财富效应,使股市获取的收益服务于实体经济。
[Abstract]:After the outbreak of the financial crisis, asset prices play a more and more significant role in the transmission mechanism of monetary policy. It is necessary to pay attention to the fluctuation of asset prices and pay attention to the transmission mechanism of asset prices in monetary policy. With the continuous development of real estate market and stock market, house price and stock price play a more and more important role in monetary policy transmission mechanism, so it is necessary to study monetary policy house price transmission mechanism and stock price transmission mechanism. After introducing the basic theory of monetary policy transmission mechanism, this paper makes an empirical analysis of monetary policy house price and stock price transmission mechanism by using SVAR model. Based on the monthly macroeconomic data from January 2009 to January 2014, the transmission mechanism of monetary policy house price and stock price is studied respectively. Since then, the similarities and differences of monetary policy asset price transmission mechanism before and after the financial crisis are compared and analyzed, including the monetary policy house price transmission mechanism before and after the crisis and the monetary policy stock price transmission mechanism before and after the crisis. The data span is from January 2001 to December 2008. By comparing the transmission mechanism of monetary policy house price and stock price, this paper draws the following conclusions by comparing the transmission mechanism of monetary policy house price and stock price transmission before and after the crisis. First, the transmission mechanism of house price is more smooth than the transmission mechanism of stock price. Second, although the ability of monetary policy to adjust house prices after the financial crisis is not obvious before the financial crisis, the effect has been continuously strengthened, and the position of the real estate market in the transmission mechanism of monetary policy has been enhanced. Third, the impact of interest rates and money supply on the stock price after the crisis is more significant than that before the financial crisis, and the impact of the stock price on the macro economy is slightly more significant than that before the financial crisis. In view of the first conclusion, the following suggestions are put forward to improve the effectiveness of the stock price transmission mechanism; to strengthen administrative measures to control house prices; and to pay attention to the impact of the real estate market on the real economy when formulating monetary policy. In view of the second conclusion, the following suggestions are put forward to control the growth rate of money supply reasonably, the monetary policy should pay attention to the development of real estate market and the fluctuation of house price, and the interest rate should be raised and the money supply should be tightened in the early stage of house price rise. We will strengthen the management of foreign capital inflows. In view of the third conclusion, this paper puts forward some suggestions to speed up the reform of interest rate marketization to make the transmission mechanism of monetary policy stock price more smooth, and to give full play to the wealth effect of the stock market so that the gains obtained by the stock market can serve the real economy.
【学位授予单位】：天津财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F822.0
[Abstract]:After the outbreak of the financial crisis, asset prices play a more and more significant role in the transmission mechanism of monetary policy. It is necessary to pay attention to the fluctuation of asset prices and pay attention to the transmission mechanism of asset prices in monetary policy. With the continuous development of real estate market and stock market, house price and stock price play a more and more important role in monetary policy transmission mechanism, so it is necessary to study monetary policy house price transmission mechanism and stock price transmission mechanism. After introducing the basic theory of monetary policy transmission mechanism, this paper makes an empirical analysis of monetary policy house price and stock price transmission mechanism by using SVAR model. Based on the monthly macroeconomic data from January 2009 to January 2014, the transmission mechanism of monetary policy house price and stock price is studied respectively. Since then, the similarities and differences of monetary policy asset price transmission mechanism before and after the financial crisis are compared and analyzed, including the monetary policy house price transmission mechanism before and after the crisis and the monetary policy stock price transmission mechanism before and after the crisis. The data span is from January 2001 to December 2008. By comparing the transmission mechanism of monetary policy house price and stock price, this paper draws the following conclusions by comparing the transmission mechanism of monetary policy house price and stock price transmission before and after the crisis. First, the transmission mechanism of house price is more smooth than the transmission mechanism of stock price. Second, although the ability of monetary policy to adjust house prices after the financial crisis is not obvious before the financial crisis, the effect has been continuously strengthened, and the position of the real estate market in the transmission mechanism of monetary policy has been enhanced. Third, the impact of interest rates and money supply on the stock price after the crisis is more significant than that before the financial crisis, and the impact of the stock price on the macro economy is slightly more significant than that before the financial crisis. In view of the first conclusion, the following suggestions are put forward to improve the effectiveness of the stock price transmission mechanism; to strengthen administrative measures to control house prices; and to pay attention to the impact of the real estate market on the real economy when formulating monetary policy. In view of the second conclusion, the following suggestions are put forward to control the growth rate of money supply reasonably, the monetary policy should pay attention to the development of real estate market and the fluctuation of house price, and the interest rate should be raised and the money supply should be tightened in the early stage of house price rise. We will strengthen the management of foreign capital inflows. In view of the third conclusion, this paper puts forward some suggestions to speed up the reform of interest rate marketization to make the transmission mechanism of monetary policy stock price more smooth, and to give full play to the wealth effect of the stock market so that the gains obtained by the stock market can serve the real economy.
【学位授予单位】：天津财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F822.0
【相似文献】
相关期刊论文 前10条
1 阙方平,李明理;论金融监管对货币政策的支撑与抑制[J];财贸经济;2000年07期
2 乔清彦;论我国货币政策工具的选择及对策[J];工业技术经济;2000年01期
3 郭中海,李利英;制约我国货币政策的因素及对策建议[J];金融理论与实践;2000年02期
4 王自力;论改革与发展中的有效货币政策[J];南方经济;2000年11期
5 王明津;用邓小平的金融观点看我国目前的货币政策[J];上海金融;2000年05期
6 王锦煜,徐宏;实施货币政策央行基层行大有可为[J];上海金融;2000年07期
7 戴相龙;继续实行稳健的货币政策[J];中国金融;2000年10期
8 陈永明;推行区域货币政策是实施西北大开发战略的现实选择[J];甘肃金融;2000年05期
9 ;继续执行稳健的货币政策[J];黑龙江金融;2000年08期
10 陈炳才;对我国货币政策一些问题的思考[J];海南金融;2000年08期
相关会议论文 前10条
1 张帅;徐长生;;货币状况指数:我国货币政策的信息指示器[A];2009年全国博士生学术会议论文集[C];2009年
2 高珂;时光;;2008年我国货币政策出现倒‘V’型转变原因浅析[A];中国会计学会审计专业委员会2010年学术年会论文集[C];2010年
3 许晋波;;新时期我国的货币政策[A];论中国式的社会主义现代化[C];2002年
4 徐洪才;;2012年货币政策及金融改革展望[A];中国经济年会（2011-2012）会刊[C];2012年
5 李，
本文编号：2488542
本文链接：https://www.wllwen.com/jingjilunwen/guojijinrong/2488542.html
