资金流动、国际金融整合与经济增长——基于新兴市场国家面板数据

发布时间：2019-06-20 11:28

【摘要】：本文尝试检验东欧、东亚和拉丁美洲三大主要新兴市场国家或地区的资金流动方向及其对经济增长的影响,以及近来众所关切的全球经常账户失衡问题。实证结果显示:东欧国家收入水平与金融深化程度仍然偏低,但随着发展程度提高,未来将由资金流入转为流出。东亚国家或地区的超额外汇储备、贸易顺差与资金流出,被指控为造成美国巨额经常账户赤字与全球经常账户失衡的主要原因之一,但若能够持续金融深化的努力,资金可能回流并使全球经常账户失衡现象得以缓解。至于拉丁美洲国家的宏观经济、金融和政策变量,对于资金流动方向并无决定性影响,但宏观经济政策仍是决定资金流入能否有助于经济增长的关键因素。
[Abstract]:This paper attempts to examine the direction of financial flows in the countries or regions of the three major emerging markets in Eastern Europe, East Asia and Latin America and their implications for economic growth, as well as the recent imbalances in the global current account of concern. The empirical results show that the level of income of the Eastern European countries and the degree of financial deepening are still low, but with the increase of the degree of development, the future will be changed from the capital inflow to the outflow. The excess foreign exchange reserves, trade surplus and capital outflow in the East China or the region have been charged as one of the main reasons for the large current account deficit in the United States and the global current account imbalances, but in the event of sustained financial deepening efforts, The possible return of funds and the reduction of the global current account imbalances. As for the macroeconomic, financial and policy variables of the Latin American countries, there is no decisive impact on the direction of the flow of funds, but the macroeconomic policy remains a key factor in determining whether the flow of funds will contribute to economic growth.
【作者单位】：安徽大学经济学院统计系;
【基金】：国家社科基金重大项目“稳增长、调结构、防通胀”三重目标下我国货币政策优化与预期管理研究“(11&ZD011) 教育部人文社会科学研究项目“后危机时代区域产业转移问题研究——基于东部企业区位选择与迁移行为的分析”(10YJA790076)的资助
【分类号】：F831;F113;F224

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