基于DEA方法的P2P网贷平台运行效率与风险研究

发布时间：2017-12-31 07:24

本文关键词：基于DEA方法的P2P网贷平台运行效率与风险研究　出处：《西南财经大学》2016年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：近几年来,互联网技术及现代通信技术的快速更新,推动了互联网金融的蓬勃发展,而其中尤以P2P网贷、互联网移动支付、众筹融资等为代表。根据网贷之家2016年1月8日发布的((2015年中国网贷行业年报》公布的数据,截至2015年12月31日,网贷行业累计运营平台家数达到了2595家,累计成交量已达到14956.15亿元。传统的金融业态正在被互联网金融独特的价值创造方式和经营模式所影响,互联网金融已经逐渐变成万众金融体系中不容小觑的新兴力量。而专家学者、政府监管层、金融管理部门、社会大众及业界人士在开始广泛关注互联网金融的同时也产生了许多争议。中国的P2P网贷行业,由于东西部经济发展不均衡的现实原因,各地区的增长速度、规模大小、风险特征都呈现出不同的特点。2015年,广东省、山东省、北京市三个地区平台数量就占据了中国总平台数量的42.66%,这表明中国的P2P网贷行业在各地区的发展水平存在不均衡的现象,呈现出集中化的趋势。同时,出现问题的P2P网贷平台也主要集中在山东、上海、广东、浙江、北京这些地区,这五个地区的问题平台家数在2015年所有的问题平台家数中所占的比例达到了60.16%。在激烈的行业竞争和经济低速增长的形势下,P2P网贷平台要想立于不败之地,必须提高平台的核心竞争力,而平台的核心竞争力集中体现在经营效率上。因此,正确认识P2P网贷平台的投入产出效率,找出影响平台经营效率的因素,对于P2P平台提升行业竞争力,提高运营水平,实现持续健康发展具有重要的现实意义。本文结合中国中西部发展差异化的现实特征,对不同区域的P2P网贷平台运营家数以及不同地区问题平台的风险因素进行了分类统计,以研究中国不同地区P2P网贷平台的效率与风险。本文选取截至2015年年底P2P网贷平台运营家数排名前7的省市,分别使用DEA模型和熵值法对P2P网贷平台运行效率及风险因素进行分析和探究,最终结合效率评价及风险评价对所选地区的P2P网贷平台进行系统性综合评价,在此基础上,对综合评价靠后的地区进行进一步分析,以期以此为基础,对中国网贷行业未来的健康发展提供可行性建议。本文的主要内容安排如下：第一章为绪论部分,主要对本文的选题背景和意义进行了阐述,并在归纳前人的相关研究的基础上,提出了本文的研究思路和研究方法。第二章对中国P2P网贷行业的现状及问题进行了概述,主要内容包括P2P网贷平台的概念及意义、行业的发展及现状、主要运营模式、现存问题以及中国P2P网贷行业未来的发展方向。第三章、第四章为本文的实证部分,其中第三章选取中国P2P网贷平台排名前7的地区,挑选每个地区按网贷之家综合指数排名前20的平台,共140个样本,选取平均利率、借款期限作为投入指标,成交量和投资人数／借款人数作为产出指标,使用DEA模型,对这140个样本的经营效率进行分析,之后计算各地区综合技术效率的平均值,最终的排名依次为北京、广东、上海、浙江、湖北、山东、四川。第四章则将效率与风险相结合对所选地区进行综合评价,截取了中国P2P网贷平台中2014年1月1日至2015年1月31日的问题平台数据,并按地区及问题类型进行分类,使用熵值法对提现困难、诈骗跑路、停业这三类问题进行赋权并分别计算各个地区的风险评价,之后根据分析结果对该七个地区进行综合评价,综合考虑风险和效率,并在此基础上,对综合评价靠后的地区进行进一步分析,以期以此为基础,对中国网贷行业未来的健康发展提供可行性建议。第五章为本文的结果与展望部分,基于本文的实证研究,对中国P2P网贷行业目前存在的发展问题及未来的发展方向进行了归纳总结。P2P网贷行业的健康发展,不仅要考虑其效率,更要关注潜在的风险,本文经过实证研究,提出建议如下：首先,在品牌建设方面,平台应该维持良好的形象和商誉,良好的品牌形象的企业的软实力,有助于平台吸引优质的借款人和投资人。其次,在综合利率方面,平台应该从自身的负债端和资产端出发,确定合理的收益率,为了争夺客户盲目提高收益率的行为不利于平台的长期发展,对于P2P网贷平台的拆标行为,应该加强监管,防范拆标行为引发的流动性风险,控制超短期产品的发行数量,防范因为资金链断裂而出现跑路的情况。通过与银行类金融机构合作,对用户资金或平台本身的风险准备金进行托管,对风险进行了隔离,可以很大程度上控制平台擅自挪用客户资金导致的操作风险。本文认为P2P网贷平台的未来发展有以下几个方向：首先,未来P2P网贷行业的准入门槛将会提高,目前P2P准入门槛比较低,例如山东省聚集大量资质不突出的平台也是山东省P2P网贷平台风险最高的原因之一。注册资本虽然不是评价平台好坏的决定性指标,但是在一定程度上也可以反映平台的股东实力和经营能力,设置适当的注册资本门槛,可以过滤掉实力较差的平台,保护投资者利益。2015年发布的P2P监管征求意见稿,虽然未对P2P平台设置门槛,但是要求P2P平台必须选择符合条件的银行业金融机构对资金进行托管,而银行作为资金存管机构对P2P平台注册资本的限制无疑为P2P行业设定了隐形门槛。其次,对P2P网贷平台的用户资金或者风险准备金进行托管可以很大程度上控制其风险,托管方主要是商业银行,但是无论是对用户资金进行托管还是对风险准备金进行托管,由于托管账户仍然属于P2P企业,因此还是存在较大的风险。从控制风险的角度出发,本文认为未来的资金托管模式将向全部资金交由银行托管的模式转变,即借贷双方都在银行开户,银行则根据双方发出的指令进行资金划转,这样用户的资金与P2P网贷平台独立开来,实现了资金在用户之间的直接流动。采用这种模式,即使平台出现资金问题,对投资者也不会产生严重影响。
[Abstract]:In recent years, the rapid update of Internet technology and modern communication technology, promoted the rapid development of Internet banking, and especially in the P2P net loan, Internet mobile payment, such as public financing as a representative. According to the net loan home released in January 8, 2016 (Chinese (2015 net loan industry report "published data, as of in December 31, 2015, net loan industry total operating platform number reached 2595, the cumulative turnover has reached 1 trillion and 495 billion 615 million yuan. The traditional financial industry is the Internet Financial unique value creation mode and operation mode of Internet banking has gradually become the financial system should not be underestimated. The emerging power of scholars and experts, government regulators and the financial management department, the public and the industry at the beginning of widespread concern of Internet banking also caused many disputes. China P2P net loan industry, because of something The Ministry of economic development is not balanced reality, all regions of the growth rate, size, risk characteristics are showing different characteristics in.2015, Guangdong Province, Shandong Province, Beijing City area three platform number will occupy the number of total Chinese platform 42.66%, which indicates that P2P net loan industry in various regions of the China the level of development are not balanced phenomenon, showing a centralized trend. At the same time, P2P net loan platform problems are mainly concentrated in Shandong, Shanghai, Guangdong, Zhejiang, Beijing these areas, the number of platform of the five regions accounted for in 2015 the number of all the platforms in proportion to low growth 60.16%. intense competition in the industry and economic situation, P2P net loan platform to be in an invincible position, we must improve the core competitiveness of the platform, and the core competitiveness of the platform is embodied in the business efficiency. Therefore, it Understanding of P2P net loan platform input-output efficiency, identify the factors affecting the operating efficiency of the platform, to enhance the competitiveness of the industry P2P platform, improve operational level, has important practical significance to achieve sustainable and healthy development. Combining with the characteristics of reality Chinese western development differentiation, P2P net loan platform operators in different regions and the number of platform the problem of risk factors in different areas were classified and to study the efficiency and risk of China in different regions of P2P net loan platform. This paper selected by the end of 2015, P2P net loan platform operation the number of the top 7 provinces and cities, respectively, to analyze and study the efficiency and risk factors of P2P net loan platform using DEA model and entropy method finally, combining efficiency evaluation and risk assessment of comprehensive evaluation system of P2P net loan platform for the selected area, on the basis of comprehensive evaluation on the area of For further analysis, in order to provide basis and feasible suggestions on China net loan industry healthy development in the future. The main contents of this paper are as follows: the first chapter is the introduction part, mainly on the background and significance are expounded, and based on the summary of the previous related research, put forward the research ideas and the research methods of this paper. The second chapter is the status quo and problems of Chinese P2P net loan industry are summarized, the main contents include the concept and significance of P2P net loan platform, the status and development of the industry, the main mode of operation, existing problems and China P2P net loan industry in the future direction of development. The third chapter, the fourth chapter is the empirical part of this paper, the third chapter selects Chinese P2P top 7 of the net loan platform area, select each region according to the net loan home index of the top 20 of the platform, a total of 140 samples, the average interest rate selection, The loan period as input indicators, the number of the volume and the number of investment / borrowing as output indicators, using DEA model, analysis of 140 samples of the operating efficiency, the average technical efficiency of each area after calculating the comprehensive value of the final ranking followed by Beijing, Guangdong, Shanghai, Zhejiang, Hubei, Shandong, Sichuan, the fourth chapter. The efficiency and risk of the combination evaluation of the selected area, the problem of data interception Chinese platform P2P net loan platform from January 1, 2014 to January 31, 2015, according to the area and problems of classification, using entropy method to cash difficulties, fraud for the three kinds of problems run away, empower and calculate risk assessment of each after the area, according to the analysis results of the seven areas of comprehensive evaluation, considering the risk and efficiency, and on this basis, the comprehensive evaluation on the region into a Further analysis, in order to provide basis and feasible suggestions on China net loan industry healthy development in the future. The fifth chapter is the empirical research results and outlook section, based on the existing problems of the development of China P2P net loan industry and the future development direction for the healthy development of.P2P net loan summary summary the industry, not only to consider the efficiency, we must pay more attention to the potential risks, this paper through the empirical research, some suggestions are put forward as follows: firstly, in brand building, the platform should maintain good image and reputation, the soft power of a good brand image of the enterprise, help the platform to attract high-quality borrowers and investors secondly. In general, the interest rate, the platform should start from their own assets and liabilities side end, determine a reasonable rate of return, in order to compete for customers blindly increase the rate of return behavior is disadvantageous to long-term development platform, to In the demolition of the standard behavior of P2P net loan platform, should strengthen supervision, prevention and liquidity risk caused by the action of standard, control the number of ultra short term products issue, to prevent because of funding strand breaks and run away situation. Through the cooperation with the banking financial institutions, trust funds or user platform itself the risk reserve the risk of isolation, can largely control the operational risk of unauthorized use of customer funds to the platform. This paper argues that the following direction of the future development of P2P net loan platform: first of all, the future of P2P net loan industry access threshold will be increased, the P2P access threshold is relatively low, such as Shandong province gathered a large number of qualification is not prominent the platform in Shandong province is the highest risk P2P net loan platform registered capital of one of the reasons. Although not decisive evaluation platform quality index, but also can reflect to a certain extent The platform of shareholder strength and ability to set the appropriate threshold of registered capital, can filter out the poor strength of the platform, P2P regulation to protect the interests of investors.2015 issued draft, although not on the P2P platform to set the threshold, but P2P platform must choose the banking financial institutions eligible for the funds custodian bank, and as the funds depository institutions for P2P platform registered capital limit is P2P industry set invisible threshold. Secondly, the P2P net loan platform user trust fund or risk reserve can control the risk in a large extent, the trustee is the main commercial banks, but whether it is for the user of funds managed or managed to risk reserve, due to the escrow account still belongs to P2P company, so there is still a big risk. Starting from the angle of risk control, this article considers the future Will all the money to the funds managed mode by mode change the trust bank, namely borrowing both in the bank account, the bank will transfer funds according to the instructions issued by the user, such funds and P2P net loan platform independent, the funds between users in a direct flow. Using this model, even if the platform appears the money problem, investors also have a serious impact.

【学位授予单位】：西南财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2016
【分类号】：F724.6;F832.4

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