TiSA谈判背景下中国服务贸易发展研究

发布时间：2018-01-03 14:26

  本文关键词：TiSA谈判背景下中国服务贸易发展研究　出处：《中央财经大学》2015年博士论文　论文类型：学位论文

  更多相关文章： TiSA谈判 服务贸易竞争力 协整和误差修正模型分析 GTAP模型

【摘要】：21世纪以来,随着科技的进步和经济全球化的加快,世界服务贸易发展迅速,服务贸易逐渐成为一国国际竞争力的重要体现。美国和欧盟主导的高标准的服务贸易谈判——TiSA(Trade in Service Agreement,服务贸易协定)谈判,其成员服务贸易进出口额的70%以上,已成为当前服务贸易自由化中最热门、最有发展前景的谈判。2013年10月,中国正式申请加入TiSA谈判。而TiSA谈判也将为中国这个世界服务贸易第三大出口国和第二大进口国带来巨大而深远的影响。因此,深入研究TiSA谈判及其成员的基本情况,科学分析中国服务贸易的优势和劣势,掌握服务贸易开放对中国服务贸易的影响渠道和作用效果,准确判断TiSA谈判对中国服务贸易发展可能带来的机遇和挑战,并据此制定积极有效的应对策略,具有重要的理论意义和现实意义。本文在研究TiSA谈判背景下中国服务贸易发展相关问题时采用了理论分析与实证分析、总体分析与结构分析、局部均衡分析与一般均衡分析相结合的研究方法。将理论先导作用和实证检验功能融合,通过定性分析和定量测度,对相关问题进行客观分析研究,力求研究结果建立在坚实的理论基础和客观事实上。本文的创新点主要表现在:第一,研究视角的创新。作为旨在推动服务贸易自由化的国际谈判,TiSA谈判会深刻影响未来国际服务贸易的发展,但现在学术界对TiSA谈判研究的文献还不多,国内外的研究主要是集中在基本情况分析和资料的整理,定量分析也较少。本文结合现代服务贸易理论和现代计量经济学方法,研究服务贸易自由化从不同渠道对中国服务贸易发展的影响,定量分析TiSA谈判带来的影响。第二,TiSA谈判是推动服务贸易自由化的国际性谈判,服务贸易自由化可以从促进竞争、扩大服务贸易开放、吸引外商直接投资三个渠道影响服务贸易竞争力,而国内对这方面的研究相对较少。本文运用协整和误差修正模型进行分析,从整体和行业(以金融、运输、建筑三个行业为例)两个层次对市场化水平、开放水平、外商直接投资三个渠道进行实证检验,分析其对服务贸易竞争力的动态作用规律和长期影响趋势。第三,使用一般均衡模型—GTAP模型模拟中国参与TiSA谈判的不同路径,首次以TiSA谈判为单独变化情境,深入分析TiSA谈判对中国服务贸易的影响以及中国是否加入tisa谈判对世界各国的影响。本文共分为七章,各章主要内容如下:第一章详细分析了研究tisa谈判的理论意义和现实意义,确定了本文的研究内容和使用方法,并对本文的创新点和研究不足进行了总结。第二章首先梳理了tisa谈判的相关文献,然后介绍了国内外服务贸易相关领域的理论和实证文献,介绍最新研究进展,厘清本文研究主题的学术基础。第三章详细介绍了tisa谈判的背景、现状、目标及未来前景,进而分析tisa谈判成员服务贸易发展情况,然后归纳了tisa谈判成员与中国双边服务贸易情况。第四章对中国服务贸易竞争力的现状和发展趋势进行了分析。本章从服务贸易整体情况、行业发展趋势两个角度,研究中国服务贸易竞争力的演进过程。通过使用服务贸易竞争优势指数、显示性比较优势指数等多项指标定量研究服务贸易竞争力的发展演变趋势,通过服务贸易行业竞争力的行业分析,探寻了中国服务贸易竞争力自身发展特点,为分析tisa谈判对中国服务贸易竞争力的影响提供研究基础。第五章为tisa谈判背景下服务贸易竞争力影响因素的分析。运用单位根检验、协整检验、误差修正模型分析和脉冲响应分析等现代计量经济学方法,对服务贸易开放影响服务贸易竞争力的三个途径(增强竞争、促进服务贸易开放、扩大外商直接投资)进行了实证分析,探讨了短期和长期效应。第六章使用多国(多地区)多部门可比较一般均衡模型——gtap模型,运用gtap8数据库和相关服务贸易数据,对中国参与tisa谈判的不同路径进行模拟分析,研究tisa谈判的贸易和产业影响,分析了tisa谈判对中国及相关国家服务贸易发展的影响。第七章基于之前的研究进行了总结,在充分考虑中国国情并借鉴其他国家经验的基础上提出了相应的对策建议。首先,中国应该制定适应中国国情的服务贸易发展策略和政策措施,建立适应服务贸易发展的管理体系和贸易促进机制,分层次逐步开放服务市场,积极参与国际服务贸易谈判。其次,服务贸易企业也应该努力融入世界服务产业链,积极跨国经营,打造全球服务品牌,树立中国服务贸易的世界声誉。通过研究,本文得到以下结论:第一,服务贸易的发展、国际金融危机后发达国家复苏的需要以及世界贸易组织框架下服务贸易谈判的停滞共同催生并推进了tisa谈判。tisa谈判旨在实现高标准的服务贸易自由化,推动国际服务贸易新标准的建立。tisa谈判成员服务贸易总额已达世界的70%以上。中国主要的服务贸易进口伙伴和服务贸易出口目的地均为tisa谈判成员。第二,现阶段,中国服务贸易总量快速增加,但贸易逆差不断扩大。服务贸易出口仍以旅游、运输、建筑为代表的资源、劳动密集型服务贸易为主,进口以与货物贸易相关的和资本技术密集型服务为主。通过对服务贸易行业层面的进口、出口、差额、国际市场占有率、服务贸易竞争优势指数、显示性比较优势指数进行测算发现,中国服务贸易的行业竞争力基本符合比较优势理论,同时,运输等传统服务部门比较优势弱化,计算机和信息服务等部门比较优势显现,资本技术密集型服务部门劣势依旧。第三,从金融业来看,金融业竞争的加剧和金融服务贸易开放的提高均会抑制金融服务贸易竞争力的提升,而金融业外商直接投资水平的提高会促进金融服务贸易竞争力的增强。运输业市场化水平与运输服务贸易竞争力呈负相关,运输服务贸易开放水平、运输业外商直接投资水平则对运输服务贸易竞争力有促进作用。建筑业市场化水平和建筑业外商直接投资水平均对建筑服务贸易竞争力有正向的促进作用。不同行业中,服务贸易自由化的三个渠道对服务贸易竞争力的作用效果不同,也导致了在整体方面,服务业市场化水平、服务贸易开放水平、服务业外商直接投资与服务贸易竞争力没有长期稳定关系。服务贸易自由化通过三个渠道会影响服务贸易的结构。第四,由gtap模型模拟结果可知,tisa谈判成功会促进其成员的经济增长,提高社会福利,带动进出口额的增加;其中美国受益最大,而世界其它国家的整体经济和社会福利则会下降。tisa谈判成功,对不同国家服务行业的影响存在差异:美国是唯一所有服务行业竞争力均得到增强的国家,主要发达国家优势行业的竞争力将进一步增强。tisa谈判的发展中成员各行业的竞争力则会普遍下降。世界其它国家各服务行业的竞争力也普遍被削弱。从总体来说,如果中国加入tisa谈判,tisa谈判的成功将对中国产生贸易创造效应,推动中国经济发展和社会福利增加;中国各服务行业的进出口均会快速增长,建筑、公共事业等中国具有比较优势的行业竞争力继续增强,金融、运输等具有比较劣势的行业竞争力继续减弱,中国服务行业的专业化增强。如果中国未加入tisa谈判,tisa谈判的成功对中国将主要产生贸易转移效应,抑制中国经济发展,导致社会福利下降。各服务行业的进出口均会出现下滑,贸易平衡继续恶化,各行业竞争力也继续减弱。tisa谈判成功后,如果中国加入tisa谈判,对谈判成员各服务行业的进口和出口均有促进作用。中国的加入会使法国、德国、西班牙的公共事业和建筑的贸易余额增加量减少,而对所有tisa谈判成员其它行业的贸易平衡改善均有促进作用。中国的加入对TiSA谈判成员总体上均有利。
[Abstract]:Since twenty-first Century, with the progress of science and technology and the acceleration of economic globalization, the rapid development of world service trade, service trade has become an important embodiment of the international competitiveness of a country. The United States and the European Union led a high standard of service trade negotiations, TiSA (Trade in Service Agreement, the service trade agreement negotiations), more than the amount of import and export trade in services to its members 70%, the liberalization of trade in services has become the current most popular, the most promising.2013 negotiations in October, formally applied to join the TiSA negotiations. China TiSA negotiations will also Chinese the world service trade's third largest exporter and second largest importer has brought great and far-reaching influence. Therefore, the basic situation in depth study on TiSA negotiation and its members, scientific analysis China service trade advantages and disadvantages, grasp the influence of channel and effect of Chinese service trade liberalization of trade in services, Accurately determine the TiSA negotiations on trade in services Chinese development may bring opportunities and challenges, and make positive and effective coping strategies, has important theoretical significance and practical significance. Based on the study of the TiSA negotiations under the background of China service trade development issues related to the theoretical analysis and empirical analysis, overall analysis and structural analysis, research the method of partial equilibrium analysis and general equilibrium analysis of the combination. The guiding role and empirical function integration, through qualitative analysis and quantitative measurement, objective analysis and Research on related issues, and the research results based on a solid theoretical basis and objective facts. The innovation of this thesis lies in: first, innovative research from the perspective of international negotiations. As to promote service trade liberalization, TiSA negotiations will profoundly affect the future development of the international trade in services, but now in school Academic research literature on TiSA negotiation is not much, the research at home and abroad are mainly focused on the analysis of basic situation and data, quantitative analysis is less. This combination of modern service trade theory and modern econometric methods, the research of service trade liberalization from the influence of different channels on the China service trade development, quantitative analysis the negotiation of TiSA. Second, TiSA negotiation is to promote international service trade liberalization negotiations, the liberalization of trade in services from promoting competition, expanding the service trade openness, attract foreign direct investment three channels influence the competitiveness of trade in services, while domestic research in this area is relatively less. This paper uses cointegration and error correction model analysis of overall and industry (in finance, transportation, building three industries for example) two levels of the market level, the level of opening up, foreign direct investment channel three For the empirical test, analysis of the competitiveness of service trade dynamic effect rule and the long-term impact of the trend. In third, using a general equilibrium model - GTAP model to simulate the different paths of China participation in the TiSA negotiations, for the first time in the TiSA negotiations as a separate change situation, in-depth analysis of the TiSA impact on the judgment on the China service trade and the influence of TiSA China whether the negotiations on the world. This paper is divided into seven chapters, the main contents of each chapter are as follows: the first chapter makes a detailed analysis of the theoretical significance and practical significance of the TiSA negotiations, determine the content of this article and method of use, and lack of innovation and research paper are summarized. The second chapter reviews the relevant literature the TiSA negotiations, and then introduced the domestic and foreign related field of service trade in theoretical and empirical literature, introduces the latest research progress, to clarify the academic basis of this paper. The theme of the article The three chapter introduces the TiSA negotiation background, status, goals and future prospects, and then analyzing the development of members of the TiSA negotiations on trade in services, and then summed up the members of the TiSA negotiations and China bilateral service trade. The fourth chapter current situation and development trend of service trade competitiveness Chinese was analyzed. This chapter from the overall situation of trade in services. Two aspects of the development trend of the industry, the evolution process of Chinese research on the competitiveness of service trade. Through the use of service trade competitiveness index, revealed comparative advantage index and other index of quantitative study on the development of service trade competitiveness evolution trend, through the competitiveness of service trade industry analysis, to explore the competitiveness of service trade Chinese provide their own development characteristics. The research foundation for the analysis of the influence of TiSA on the competitiveness of service trade negotiations Chinese. The fifth chapter is the TiSA negotiations under the background of service trade Yi Jing Analysis of the factors affecting competitiveness. By using unit root test, cointegration test, error correction model and impulse response analysis of modern econometric methods such as three ways of service trade competitiveness influence on Service Trade Openness (enhanced competition, promote service trade openness, expand foreign direct investment) by empirical analysis, discusses the short-term and the long-term effect. The sixth chapter uses multi (multi area) comparison of general equilibrium model: GTAP model of multi departments, using the gtap8 database and related services trade data of Chinese participation in the TiSA negotiations with the path for simulation analysis, research the TiSA negotiations on Trade and industry influence, analyzed the effect of TiSA on Chinese negotiation and the relevant state the development of service trade. The seventh chapter is based on the previous research are summarized, and based on the experience of other countries in full consideration on the current situation and put forward China Suggestions. First, China should be developed to adapt to the situation of China service trade development strategy and policy measures, to set up the development of service trade management system and trade promotion mechanism, hierarchical gradually open the service market, and actively participate in international negotiations on trade in services. Second, the service trade enterprises should also strive to integrate into the world service industry chain. Active transnational business, to create a global service brand, establish China service trade reputation in the world. Through the research, this paper obtained the following conclusions: first, the development of the service trade, the international financial crisis in developed countries after the recovery and the need of the World Trade Organization under the framework of stalled negotiations on trade in services and promote the birth of the common TiSA.Tisa aims to achieve high the standard of service trade liberalization, promote the establishment of a new international standard.Tisa service trade negotiation members of the general service trade volume has reached the world More than 70% circles. Chinese main service trade import and export trade in services to partners are members of the TiSA negotiations. Second, at this stage, the rapid increase in China total service trade, but the trade deficit continues to expand. Service trade is still in tourism, transportation, building as the representative of the resources, labor intensive service trade. Import related to trade in goods and capital and technology intensive service. Through imports, level of trade in service export, balance, international market share, service trade competitiveness index, revealed comparative advantage index calculations showed that the Chinese service trade industry competitiveness basically conforms to the theory of comparative advantage, at the same time, the weakening of comparison the advantage of the traditional service department of transportation, revealed comparative advantage of computer and information services, capital and technology intensive service sectors in the old weaknesses. Third, from the financial In view of the fierce competition of the financial industry and financial services trade liberalization will improve suppression of financial service trade competitiveness promotion, while foreign direct investment will increase the level of financial industry to promote the competitiveness of financial service trade is negatively related to the transportation industry. The level of the market competitiveness of service trade and transportation, open service trade transportation, transportation the level of FDI has positive effect on the competitiveness of service trade in transportation construction industry. The level of the market and the construction of foreign direct investment have positive role in promoting the competitiveness of construction service trade. In different industries, different three channels of service trade liberalization of service trade competitiveness effect, also led to the on the whole, the level of market services, service trade openness, foreign direct investment of service industry and service trade competitiveness is not long Stable relationship. The liberalization of trade in services through three channels will affect the structure of service trade. By fourth, the GTAP model simulation results show that TiSA can promote the successful negotiation of members of the economic growth, improve social welfare, promote the increase of import and export; the United States and other countries in the world the biggest benefit, the overall economic and social welfare it will fall.Tisa the success of the negotiations, have different effects on the service industry in different countries: the United States is the only all service industry competitiveness can be enhanced in the country, major developed countries competitive advantage of the industry will further enhance the development of the.Tisa negotiations in each member of the competitiveness of the industry will decline. The service industry in other countries the competitiveness is widely weakened. In general, if Chinese TiSA to join the TiSA negotiations, the success of the negotiations will produce trade creation effect to China, push China The economic development and social welfare increase; the service industry Chinese import and export will be rapid growth, construction, public utilities and other Chinese has a comparative advantage in the competitiveness of the industry continues to strengthen, financial, transportation is relatively inferior industry competitiveness continued to weaken, strengthen professional Chinese services. If Chinese did not join the TiSA negotiations, TiSA the success of the negotiations on China will mainly produce trade diversion effect, inhibition of Chinese economic development, lead to social welfare decline. The service industry's import and export will decline, trade balance continues to deteriorate, the competitiveness of the industry will continue to weaken.Tisa after a successful negotiation, if China to join the TiSA negotiations, the negotiating members import and service industry exports were promoted. Chinese added that France, Germany, Spain's public utilities and building the trade balance and to reduce the amount of increase, all about TiSA The improvement of trade balance in other sectors of the members has been promoted. China's accession is generally favorable to the TiSA negotiators.

【学位授予单位】：中央财经大学
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：F752.68
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本文编号：1374283