人民币汇率波动对劳动密集型行业出口影响研究

发布时间：2018-01-04 19:03

本文关键词：人民币汇率波动对劳动密集型行业出口影响研究　出处：《上海工程技术大学》2015年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：改革开放后,人民币汇率制度先后经历了计划内部双轨制、钉住美元的汇率制度以及“参考”一篮子货币的有管理的浮动汇率制度几个阶段。人民币也经历了四个阶段的贬值和升值时期,特别是在2005年7月21日汇率改革后,汇率升值速度加快,并且引起世界普遍的关注,人民币汇率的波动给世界经济带来广泛影响。目前的研究结果总体倾向于汇率与对外贸易的总量的关系研究上,然而研究汇率与劳动密集型行业出口影响的文献较少。最近几年,随着人民币的不断升值以及劳动力成本的不断上升,劳动密集型行业出口受到一定程度的影响,但是结合国情分析可知,劳动密集型行业在短时间内会不会消失,仍会对经济带来较大影响。因此,如何从汇率的角度进行分析,以找到合理的应对策略,来为的劳动密集型行业持续健康的发展提供相关建议,是本文的研究所在。为了更充分地反映人民币汇率波动对劳动密集型行业出口影响,本文从贸易方式角度,采用理论和实证分析相结合的方法,研究人民币汇率波动对劳动密集型行业出口的影响,以此能得出汇率对劳动密集型行业不同出口贸易方式的影响程度,从而为调整劳动密集型行业内部结构提供依据,进而为国家实现行业转型,提供合理化建议。本文详细介绍了汇率波动的历程,发展趋势以及劳动密集型行业的概况,并通过搜集近些年人民币汇率和劳动密集型行业出口贸易方面的数据,运用实证模型深入分析了人民币汇率对劳动密集型行业出口的影响,预期得到以下几个方面:一是人民币汇率波动是劳动密集型行业出口结构转变的重要原因,会引起低产品附加值和高技术含量出口品贸易结构的波动;二是人民币汇率升值会引起劳动密集型产品中以加工贸易为主的企业的出口额的减少幅度大于以一般贸易出口为主企业的出口额的减少幅度;三是人民币汇率升值一定程度上有利于提高高新技术产品占总产品的出口比重;四是人民币汇率波动有利于调整贸易出口结构,推进经济结构转型升级的步伐。
[Abstract]:After the reform and opening up, the RMB exchange rate system has experienced a two-track system. The exchange rate system pegged to the US dollar and the managed floating exchange rate regime with reference to a basket of currencies. The RMB has also experienced four stages of depreciation and appreciation. Especially after the exchange rate reform in July 21st 2005, the rate of exchange rate appreciation accelerated, and caused widespread concern in the world. The fluctuation of RMB exchange rate has a wide impact on the world economy. The current research results generally tend to study the relationship between the exchange rate and the total amount of foreign trade. But there is less literature on the impact of exchange rates on exports from labour-intensive industries. In recent years, with the appreciation of the renminbi and rising labour costs. The export of labor-intensive industries is affected to a certain extent, but according to the analysis of national conditions, labor-intensive industries will disappear in a short period of time, and will still have a greater impact on the economy. How to analyze from the point of view of exchange rate in order to find a reasonable response strategy for the labor-intensive industries to provide relevant recommendations for the sustained and healthy development. In order to fully reflect the impact of RMB exchange rate fluctuations on the export of labor-intensive industries, this paper adopts a combination of theory and empirical analysis from the perspective of trade mode. This paper studies the impact of RMB exchange rate fluctuation on the export of labor-intensive industries, so as to obtain the impact of the exchange rate on the different export trade modes of labor-intensive industries. Thus it provides the basis for adjusting the internal structure of labor-intensive industries, and then provides reasonable suggestions for the country to realize the industry transformation. This paper introduces the course of exchange rate fluctuation in detail. Development trends and labor-intensive industries, and through the collection of recent RMB exchange rate and labor-intensive industries export trade data. The empirical model is used to analyze the impact of RMB exchange rate on the export of labor-intensive industries, and the following aspects are expected: first, the fluctuation of RMB exchange rate is an important reason for the transformation of export structure of labor-intensive industries. It will cause the fluctuation of trade structure of exports with low added value and high technology content; Second, the appreciation of RMB exchange rate will cause the decrease of export value of the enterprises which mainly focus on processing trade in the labor-intensive products, which is larger than that of the enterprises with the main export of general trade. Third, the appreciation of RMB exchange rate to some extent helps to increase the proportion of high-tech products in the export of total products; Fourth, RMB exchange rate fluctuations are conducive to readjusting the structure of trade exports and promoting the pace of economic restructuring and upgrading.
【学位授予单位】：上海工程技术大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：F832.6;F752.62

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