An Econometric Assessment of Livestock Exports and Its Impac
发布时间：2021-01-08 18:09
索马里的农业经济主要以牲畜业为主,对种植业的依赖程度较小。畜牧业占GDP的40%左右,并提供了60%的就业机会和80%的外汇收入。畜牧业在索马里经济中发挥着重要作用,它是最大的部门、最大的雇主和大多数家庭的主要收入来源。出口部门主要依赖牛、骆驼、山羊和绵羊等畜牧产品,这些产品的特点是容易受到数量和价格的波动影响。尽管这四种牲畜的出口是索马里的主要经济来源,但尚未有学者对这四种牲畜的出口进行过相关研究。因此,本研究能为政策制定者、经济学家和其他对索马里经济感兴趣的社会经济团体提供有关索马里出口状况和影响因素的分析,这对于研究索马里未来经济发展具有重要意义。本研究的目的是通过观察牲畜的出口和经济增长之间的因果关系来评估过去二十五年内牲畜（牛,骆驼,山羊和绵羊）的出口对索马里经济增长的趋势和影响。研究采用了拓展的新古典生产函数模型,选取了1990年至2015年间粮食和农业组织关于国家贸易（FAOSTAT）和WDI（世界发展指标）的统计数据,并使用协整模型、误差修正模型和格兰杰因果关系模型进行了分析。研究结果表明,牛羊出口对经济增长具有积极而显著的影响,而骆驼出口对经济增长具有正向影响,但统计...
【文章来源】：江苏大学江苏省
【文章页数】：97 页
【学位级别】：硕士
【文章目录】：
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
ACRONYMS AND ABBREVIATION
摘要
ABSTRACT
CHAPTER1 INTRODUCTION
1.1 Background of the Study
1.2 Statement of Problem,Objective of the Study and Research Questions
1.2.1 Statement of the Problem
1.2.2 Research Objectives
1.2.3 Research Questions
1.3 The Scope,Limitations,Structure and Novelty of the Research
1.3.1 Scope and Limitation of the Research
1.3.2 Research Structure
1.3.3 Research Novelty
CHAPTER2 LITERATURE REVIEW
2.1 Overview of Exports and Economic Growth
2.2 Livestock Economy and Livestock Production
2.3 Empirical Review
2.3.1 Early Studies Conduct Export and Economic Growth
2.3.2 Recent Studies Conduct Agriculture and Livestock Exports on Economic Growth
2.4 Shortcomings of Reviewed Previous Empirical Analyses
2.5 Summary
CHAPTER3 THEORETICAL BASIS AND MACHANISM FRAMEWORK
3.1 Theoretical Review on Economic Growth
3.1.1 Classical Theory of Economic Growth
3.1.2 The Keynesian Theory of Economic Growth
3.1.3 Neoclassical Growth Theories
3.1.4 Endogenous Growth Theories
3.2 Mechanism Framework
3.3 Summary
CHAPTER4 LIVESTOCK DEVELOPMENT IN SOMALIA
4.1 Importance of Livestock Marketing in Somalia
4.2 Problems and Challenges Facing Livestock Sector in Somalia
4.2.1 Treatment of Livestock and Lifting of Ban
4.2.2 Sanitary Standards of the Livestock and Avoiding Future Ban
4.3 Capacity of Export and Beneficiaries of Livestock Trade in Somalia
4.4 Current Situation of Livestock Exports in Somalia
4.5 The Global Trend of Agriculture and the Livestock Sector
4.5.1 Situation of the Livestock Sector in The Horn of Africa（IGAD Countries）
4.5.2 Current situation of Agriculture Sector in horn of Africa（IGAD Countries）
4.6 Summary
CHAPTER5 METHODOLOGY
5.1 Study Area
5.2 Nature and Source of Data
5.3 Model Specification
5.4 Description of the Variables and Their Anticipated Signs
5.5 Methods of Data Analysis
5.5.1 Stationary and Non-Stationary
5.5.2 Co-Integration Test
5.5.3 Error Correction Model（ECM）
5.6 Summary
CHAPTER6 RESULTS OF THE ASSESMENTS AND EMPIRICAL DISCUSSIONS
6.1 Trends of Livestock Exports in Somalia
6.1.1 Trend in Camel Exports in Somalia
6.1.2 Trend in Sheep Exports in Somalia
6.1.3 Trend in Goat Exports in Somalia
6.1.4 Trend in Cattle Exports in Somalia
6.2 The Summary（Descriptive）Statistics
6.3 Econometrics Analysis
6.3.1 Unit Root Test and Order of Integration
6.3.2 Tests for Co-Integration
6.4 Results of Long Run Relationship
6.4.1 The Impact of Cattle Exports on Economic Growth
6.4.2 The Impact of Sheep Exports on Economic Growth
6.4.3 The Impact of Goat Exports on Economic Growth
6.4.4 The Impact of Camel Exports on Economic Growth
6.5 Control Variables
6.5.1 The Impact of Total Labor Force（TLF）on Economic Growth
6.5.2 The Impact of Gross Domestic Fix Capital Formation（lnCA）on Economic Growth
6.5.3 The Impact of Exchange Rate（lnER）on Economic Growth
6.6 Model Appropriateness
6.6.1 The Autocorrelation Test
6.6.2 The Heteroscedasticity Test
6.7 The Misspecification Test
6.8 Results of the Error Correction Model
6.9 Granger Causality Test Between Economic Growth and Livestock Exports
6.10 summary
CHAPTER7 CONCULATION AND POLICY RECOMMENDATIONS
7.1 Conclusion
7.2 Recommendations
7.3 Areas for Further Research
REFERENCES
本文编号：2965059
【文章来源】：江苏大学江苏省
【文章页数】：97 页
【学位级别】：硕士
【文章目录】：
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
ACRONYMS AND ABBREVIATION
摘要
ABSTRACT
CHAPTER1 INTRODUCTION
1.1 Background of the Study
1.2 Statement of Problem,Objective of the Study and Research Questions
1.2.1 Statement of the Problem
1.2.2 Research Objectives
1.2.3 Research Questions
1.3 The Scope,Limitations,Structure and Novelty of the Research
1.3.1 Scope and Limitation of the Research
1.3.2 Research Structure
1.3.3 Research Novelty
CHAPTER2 LITERATURE REVIEW
2.1 Overview of Exports and Economic Growth
2.2 Livestock Economy and Livestock Production
2.3 Empirical Review
2.3.1 Early Studies Conduct Export and Economic Growth
2.3.2 Recent Studies Conduct Agriculture and Livestock Exports on Economic Growth
2.4 Shortcomings of Reviewed Previous Empirical Analyses
2.5 Summary
CHAPTER3 THEORETICAL BASIS AND MACHANISM FRAMEWORK
3.1 Theoretical Review on Economic Growth
3.1.1 Classical Theory of Economic Growth
3.1.2 The Keynesian Theory of Economic Growth
3.1.3 Neoclassical Growth Theories
3.1.4 Endogenous Growth Theories
3.2 Mechanism Framework
3.3 Summary
CHAPTER4 LIVESTOCK DEVELOPMENT IN SOMALIA
4.1 Importance of Livestock Marketing in Somalia
4.2 Problems and Challenges Facing Livestock Sector in Somalia
4.2.1 Treatment of Livestock and Lifting of Ban
4.2.2 Sanitary Standards of the Livestock and Avoiding Future Ban
4.3 Capacity of Export and Beneficiaries of Livestock Trade in Somalia
4.4 Current Situation of Livestock Exports in Somalia
4.5 The Global Trend of Agriculture and the Livestock Sector
4.5.1 Situation of the Livestock Sector in The Horn of Africa（IGAD Countries）
4.5.2 Current situation of Agriculture Sector in horn of Africa（IGAD Countries）
4.6 Summary
CHAPTER5 METHODOLOGY
5.1 Study Area
5.2 Nature and Source of Data
5.3 Model Specification
5.4 Description of the Variables and Their Anticipated Signs
5.5 Methods of Data Analysis
5.5.1 Stationary and Non-Stationary
5.5.2 Co-Integration Test
5.5.3 Error Correction Model（ECM）
5.6 Summary
CHAPTER6 RESULTS OF THE ASSESMENTS AND EMPIRICAL DISCUSSIONS
6.1 Trends of Livestock Exports in Somalia
6.1.1 Trend in Camel Exports in Somalia
6.1.2 Trend in Sheep Exports in Somalia
6.1.3 Trend in Goat Exports in Somalia
6.1.4 Trend in Cattle Exports in Somalia
6.2 The Summary（Descriptive）Statistics
6.3 Econometrics Analysis
6.3.1 Unit Root Test and Order of Integration
6.3.2 Tests for Co-Integration
6.4 Results of Long Run Relationship
6.4.1 The Impact of Cattle Exports on Economic Growth
6.4.2 The Impact of Sheep Exports on Economic Growth
6.4.3 The Impact of Goat Exports on Economic Growth
6.4.4 The Impact of Camel Exports on Economic Growth
6.5 Control Variables
6.5.1 The Impact of Total Labor Force（TLF）on Economic Growth
6.5.2 The Impact of Gross Domestic Fix Capital Formation（lnCA）on Economic Growth
6.5.3 The Impact of Exchange Rate（lnER）on Economic Growth
6.6 Model Appropriateness
6.6.1 The Autocorrelation Test
6.6.2 The Heteroscedasticity Test
6.7 The Misspecification Test
6.8 Results of the Error Correction Model
6.9 Granger Causality Test Between Economic Growth and Livestock Exports
6.10 summary
CHAPTER7 CONCULATION AND POLICY RECOMMENDATIONS
7.1 Conclusion
7.2 Recommendations
7.3 Areas for Further Research
REFERENCES
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