定向降准政策的有效性:基于消费与投资刺激效应的评估

发布时间：2018-01-01 11:01

本文关键词：定向降准政策的有效性:基于消费与投资刺激效应的评估　出处：《中国工业经济》2017年11期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：作为中国中央银行的政策工具创新,定向降准首次将结构性调整功能赋予货币政策,然而目前仍缺乏对其政策效果的研究。本文以汽车金融类定向降准政策为例,阐述其对汽车消费和汽车企业投资的作用机制,并基于沪深两市A股制造业上市公司的数据,依据标准的双重差分分析步骤,定量评估汽车金融定向降准政策对汽车企业营业收入和投资的作用效果,验证该政策的"消费刺激效应"和"投资刺激效应"。研究表明:汽车金融定向降准政策并未显著提高汽车企业的营业收入,但是刺激了汽车企业的投资;高投资机会企业和大企业的投资对定向降准政策的反应更加强烈,企业所有制特征不是政策效果的主要影响因素。以上结论意味着:汽车金融定向降准政策刺激了汽车供给却未能对汽车需求产生显著影响,这可能强化了汽车行业的供求失衡,背离了中央银行刺激需求、化解产能过剩的政策初衷。在未来,中央银行应更注重对降准对象内部运行的考察,改进政策操作方式,并结合监管手段改变金融机构的激励相容和参与约束机制,使得定向降准政策能够真正做到精准调控。
[Abstract]:As a policy tool innovation of the Central Bank of China, the targeted downgrade has for the first time assigned the function of structural adjustment to monetary policy. However, there is still a lack of research on the effect of the policy. This paper, taking the automobile finance policy as an example, expounds the mechanism of its effect on automobile consumption and automobile enterprise investment. Based on the data of A-share manufacturing listed companies in Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets, and according to the double differential analysis steps of standard, the paper quantitatively evaluates the effect of the targeted reduction of auto finance on the operating income and investment of automobile enterprises. The results show that the targeted reduction of auto finance policy has not significantly increased the operating income of automobile enterprises, but stimulated the investment of automobile enterprises, and proved the "consumption stimulus effect" and "investment stimulus effect" of the policy. The investment of high-investment opportunity enterprises and large enterprises is more strongly responsive to the targeted reduction policy. Enterprise ownership is not the main influence factor of the effect of the policy. The above conclusion means that the automobile financial policy stimulates the automobile supply but fails to have a significant impact on the automobile demand. This may reinforce the imbalance between supply and demand in the auto industry, diverting from the policy intent of central banks to stimulate demand and resolve overcapacity. In the future, central banks should pay more attention to the internal operation of the target. By improving the policy operation mode and changing the incentive compatibility and participation restraint mechanism of financial institutions combined with regulatory measures, the targeted reduction policy can truly achieve precise regulation.
【作者单位】：中山大学岭南学院;中山大学中国转型与开放经济研究所;招商银行;
【基金】：国家社会科学基金重大项目“经济发展新常态下的货币政策创新研究”(批准号15ZDA014)
【分类号】：F426.471;F832
【正文快照】： 一、问题提出2014年以来,中国人民银行开始实行定向降低存款准备金比率操作(简称定向降准,详见表1)。定向降准是近年来推出的重要货币政策工具创新,也是世界范围内的首创。传统降准针对所有金融机构,目的是通过改变流动性来进行宏观经济调控,并不针对特定产业或行业,具有普适

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